Singapore Property Latest Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratio

Singapore Property Market Cooling Measures

隆市高档公寓百万起跳

2013下半年，吉隆坡先后有不少高档公寓计划完工，为市区的公寓市场增添不少新的供应量，其中一些单位数目並不多，每平方尺售价几乎在1千令吉起跳，动輒都是百万豪宅。

Penang’s second bridge boosts land prices

Penang's property prices have risen by quite a bit since the mid-2000s although the appreciation in prices has been limited to several popular locations on Penang island, particularly George Town.

However, since the second bridge project was announced in 2007, vacant land prices on both ends of the bridge, which connects Batu Maung on the island and Batu Kawan in southern Seberang Prai, have jumped.

Raine & Horne Malaysia director Michael Geh told StarBiz the price of vacant land in Batu Maung on the island which had increased to RM250-RM300 per sq ft from RM50-RM60 per sq ft. The 24km-long bridge, which is the longest in South-East Asia, has been scheduled for opening next month. Geh pointed out that the pricing depended on whether the land had been zoned for agriculture, commercial or residential usage.

“In Seberang Prai, prices of vacant land hover at RM50-RM60 per sq ft, compared to RM8-RM9 per sq ft prior to the announcement of the second link project.

“The price of vacant land has appreciated 500% on the island and about 700% in Seberang Prai,” he said.

For landed properties, new two- to three-storey terrace houses now cost from RM1.2mil south of the island, compared with about RM450,000 prior to the announcement.

“The new condominiums in similar locations are now priced at RM700,000-RM800,000, compared to RM250,000-RM300,000 prior to the announcement,” Geh said.

Geh said there would be more housing projects planned for Seberang Prai in view of the Ikea project to be developed in Batu Kawan and a mixture of commercial and residential properties.

He noted that with the island getting saturated, developers and investors would take more interest in building or acquiring properties in Seberang Prai especially since new housing regulations for the island to take effect on Feb 1 would restrict the sales of properties priced below RM400,000 for a period of five years and if disposed within the period, can only be sold to a state government approved list of first-time buyers.

In Seberang Prai, the same restriction applies to residential properties priced at RM250,000 and below.

According to Malaysia Institute of Estate Agents (Penang) chairman Mark Saw, the locations in Seberang Prai which could be considered hotspots due to their proximity to the first and second bridges were Bukit Tambun, Juru, and Simpang Ampat.

“Cheaper land cost and property prices will spur the pace of development in Seberang Prai.

“Gated landed projects with lifestyle facilities will be the trend in Seberang Prai.

“On the island, we have already seen the full impact of the second bridge on property prices, as Penang and Kuala Lumpur-based developers and property buyers have already invested substantially near the second link,” he said.

Saw said that in the first half of the year, Penang’s property market would cool off before picking up again in the second half.

Meanwhile, Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association (Penang) chairman Datuk Jerry Chan said should land prices in Seberang Prai grow at the current pace, developers may be pressured to build more high-rise properties.

Limelight on former RRI land project

Just as the property segment is seemingly losing its lustre compared with the booming period it had a few years back, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) has announced that it will finally call for tenders to develop the first phase of the 943ha township in Sungai Buloh this February.

Some think that the announcement may not be the timeliest given the multi-pronged cooling measures that were introduced last year, while others see this as a catalyst that creates sparks in the otherwise tepid property market when most people are taking a “wait-and-see” approach.

Industry observers, however, note that the property launches will only be rolled out in another one to two years as it takes time for the state authorities to grant approvals while the tender process for the first phase will be called for next month.

The excitement revolves not just around the whopping RM50bil gross development value (GDV) projected, but more importantly, the large piece of land that is adjacent to maturing neighbourhoods on top of its connectivity edge, aptly the two mass rapid transit (MRT) stations that sit in the tract as well as two proposed highways.

Composition of the Kwasa Damansara township

As the master developer for this rare parcel, EPF’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Kwasa Land Sdn Bhd, has a big role to play.

How successful the development will be, is heavily reliant on how the master plan is crafted.

Experts also expect private developers to share their input with Kwasa Land in the planning process.

The master developer envisions the concept of green, connectivity and inclusiveness for the land, in which it allocates 42% for residential, 23% for infrastructure, 11% for commercial, 11% for green and open space and 6% for community facilities.

The previous owner, Rubber Research Institute (RRI), has retained 216.5ha for its own use.

Development starts from the northern part?

The estate that sprawls across the jurisdiction of two local councils – the Petaling Jaya City Council (MBPJ) and the Shah Alam City Council (MBSA) – serves as a nice canvas for development.

According to Kwasa Land, the first three developments that will take place for the first two years falls under the jurisdiction of MBSA although the master developer had yet to spell out the actual plot for phase one.

The whole parcel of the former RRI land is divided by Jalan Sungai Buloh.

Google Maps shows that the upper part of the parcel falls under MBSA and that is where the proposed Sungai Buloh MRT depot lies. The Kota Damansara and Taman Industri Sungai Buloh MRT stations are also situated in this portion of the Kwasa Damansara township, which will be developed into eight precincts.

Kwasa Land managing director Mohd Lotfy Mohd Noh says in a statement that the development will evolve naturally around the two MRT stations that have been planned.

Interestingly, the master developer indicates that the first 26ha parcel will be developed into a modern state-of-the-art town centre and transport hub via a partnership with tier-one developers. The town centre will be made up of 70% commercial components while the remaining 30% is residential, of which tenders of its development will be called for in February.

In order to attract corporate players and government agencies to set up or relocate there, the EPF will consider allotting another 12ha to build a corporate park in a garden setting with the first phase for its corporate office.

Research and property marketing company Ho Chin Soon Sdn Bhd director Ho Chin Soon tells StarBizWeek: “The northern part of the development with the MRT stations will be good for investment.”

On the other hand, the southern part will be served by the proposed Damansara-Shah Alam Highway, which will also enhance its connectivity, he adds.

The question of affordability

As the initiative is primarily spearheaded by the Government, some industry experts StarBizWeek spoke to express their disappointment that the land is monetised for commercial purposes more than it is developed for social interest, specifically for affordable housing.

The pension fund bought the land from RRI in 2012 for RM2.28bil. In the latest announcement, the master developer says it is projecting a revenue of some RM11bil from the land sales of 546.32ha to developers.

The land cost for EPF is about RM22.50 per sq ft (psf) while the average selling price will be at RM187 psf, which is a new benchmark price for that area, according to HwangDBS Vickers Research.

Besides that, the new GDV is also five times the value of the RM10bil estimated about four years ago.

Many years back, there was talk that the Government had earmarked some 404.7ha to build up to 10,000 affordable homes on the land but the plan was never heard of again.

Ho says the area is suitable for affordable housing due to its connectivity.

Zerin Properties chief executive officer Previndran Singhe quips: “This is a fantastic piece of land. The Government should use it to build affordable housing but based on the projected numbers, the property prices will not be cheap or the component of affordable housing will not be significant.”

He also opines that there should be a higher percentage of residential components for this project.

Based on Kwasa Land’s statement, approximately 50 million sq ft of commercial space will be created.

While Kwasa Land highlighted the socio-economic inclusivity of the development with potential value homes for all segments of society, it also says there will be residential enclaves that cater to exclusive lifestyles and attractive leisure and recreational space including golf courses.

An industry player notes that for township development, developers are required to allocate 20% for low-cost, 20% low-to-medium-cost and 10% medium-cost housing under regulative guidelines.

Socio-economic impact

Not only will the development bring about economic activities that will benefit property developers and construction players, Kwasa Land says the project is expected to be home to more than 150,000 people. It targets to build 28,000 houses of various types over the 20-year span of the whole development.

It stresses that it will maintain parcel sizes to ensure the supply and demand for the properties are kept under control to match market conditions.

Many property players have expressed interest to participate in the development. More than 150 of them had submitted their credentials during the pre-qualifying round and 60 of the best were short-listed by the master developer.

Some of the potential candidates for the jobs include SP Setia Bhd, UEM Land Bhd, Sunway Bhd, Mah Sing Group Bhd, Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB) and IJM Land Bhd.

The civil works, estimated to worth RM1bil, could possibly benefit construction experts like WCT Holdings Bhd, IJM Corp Bhd and MRCB.

Due to the significance of this vast project, more details can be expected to be revealed by the master developer soon.

Hopefully, it will be one that strikes a good balance between maintaining social interest and meeting any commercial objective.

How will property fare in 2014?

The year 2013 was a bad one for gold. Bond market is risky and equities are volatile. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are subdued compared with 2012 and 2013.

Fixed deposits are hovering about 3% while inflation rate is expected to increase to 3.4% for the first nine months this year from 2.1% in the same period last year. Tangible physical properties may be, will they remain as good a hedge against inflation has many have hoped? Here are some anaecdotes from property consultants.

Das Gupta
Stocker Roberts & Gupta Sdn Bhd valuer

Bangsar, Damansara Heights and landed units will be little affected in the event of an economic downturn but the peripheral areas like Rawang, Meru and Semenyih are not expected to have the great increases in price anymore.

Datuk Steward Labrooy
Axis Reit Managers Bhd CEO

Consider industrial properties. Entry cost is lower by comparison. You pay less for buildings and land and tenancy is long term compared with residential/commercial properties. But buy with roads, gas, broadband, water and electricity supply.

Veena Loh
Malaysian Property Inc general manager

Penang will not be so hot this year, KL will be better while Iskandar Malaysia will very good in the very, very long term.

Local and foreign buyers will take a wait-and-see attitude in the first half year of 2014.

Elvin Fernandez
Khong & Jaafar managing director

For many, houses and shophouses will remain a perennial favourite. Interest rates may go up this year. I don’t think there will be a drastic fall in property prices, more likely a fall in volume which makes it difficult for developers and increases competition in the housing industry.

Do not compare the Malaysian market with Singapore’s. We may appear cheap and Singapore expensive but every city has an unseen hand that fixes the rent in the market so it is wrong to say we are cheap. Do not make country-to-country comparison. Prices is determined by rental. Our office rent is about RM7 per sq ft while Singapore’s office rent is more than RM25 per sq ft (S$10 to S$15 psf).

Rent is a function of profitability of a company.

During an external shock, weaknesses in the sector is exposed.

Today, globally, we are getting more and more skittish (about that situation). There has been a small tapering in December, 2013. How that is going to work out as far as the money outflow from the region is concerned is a big question. This is an external event but it will impact on the property, bonds and equities market. The opacity is real.

Siva Shanker
Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents president

The measures instituted by the government may result in short-term pain but this is good for the sector in the long-term.

When people are rushing to sell, that’s the time to buy. There are many who bought in Cyberjaya who are now rushing to sell. This will continue throughout 2014.

Property is not a short-term play and vary your portfolio. Location is no longer everything. Things have changed. Pricing, affordability and concept are factors to be considered in addition to location.

The condo market is slow and will consolidate. If you have invested in a commercial or industrial property, you will be shielded and I don’t mean serviced apartments disguised as a commercial unit.

Young people who bought into shoebox-sized units have not done themselves a favour, unless they plan to stay there.

They may have problems renting the unit out.

James Wong
VPC Alliance Malaysia Sdn Bhd managing director

The commercial property market is affected by the oversupply in the office market and the slower take-up rate expected in 2014. For Kuala Lumpur, the new assessment hike and increased electricity tariff will reduce the rental income and yields of office buildings, making it even harder for them to be sold because of lower yields. Hence, we expect fewer office buildings transactions in 2014.

Likewise, for the retail shopping market, there is also an oversupply.

With inflation and the hikes in electricity, petrol, toll charges without a proportionate increase in wages, consumer spending for luxurious and non-essential goods will be affected.

Retailers experience lower sales turnover during the year-end festive holidays and this trend will is expected to continue during the year. However, shopping malls in city centres will do better this year.

Paul Khong
CB Richard Ellis Malaysia executive director

In the Klang Valley housing market, Damansara Heights, Desa Park City, Hartamas, Bandar Utama, Mutiara Damansara and Bangsar would be the evergreen locations which cannot go wrong. However, landed properties in these locations are at a premium. MRT will continue to attract investors/purchasers and properties around the stations will obviously benefit. Gated and guarded projects within the landed segments will continue to excel in good areas. Commercial markets will continue to trade reasonably well and the shophouses/shopoffices segments in good locations will still see appreciation this year, especially those with good rental returns and secured tenancies.

Property’s hazy outlook: The retail story

Royal Institution of Surveyors Malaysia (RISM) vice president Adzman Shah Mohd Ariffin says the market is evolving. “There are a number of developments in the United States and in Asia. All these events will impact Malaysia.”

Adzman highlighted Indonesia’s rupiah weakening last year and Thailand political demonstrations, now in its second month.

Adzman says the weak rupiah may attract companies to invest there. That will impact Malaysia.

“We seem stable when compared to our neighbours but we have our own issues to settle,” he says.

Adzman, who runs a property and retail consultancy Exastrata Solutions Sdn Bhd says businesses are recalculating their margins with the various price increases involving electricity tariffs, sugar, possibly toll rates and petrol prices.

He draws attention to the recent inflation figures by Standard Chartered Bank South-East Asia regional head of research Edward Lee. Lee says Malaysia’s inflation rate is expected to increase to 3.4% for the first nine months this year from 2.1% in the same period last year. The jump reflects one of the biggest in Asia; it is also the fastest acceleration in almost two years.

Adzman is helping three malls with retail tenancy. Two of them are new while the third is an existing mall.

“Retailers today are cautious about location, their catchment areas and overall expansion. They have been cautious since the middle of last year. There is a lot of focus now on tourism to help bring in revenue but this is limited to cities and tourist areas. Suburban malls are dependent on their respective catchment areas,” he says.

“Most businesses are waiting for first half year figures. This will be a good indication (where we are heading),” he says.

Adzman says retailers are feeling the heat because consumers are not buying.

“Retailers are clearing stock by cutting prices to ensure they are not stuck with old stocks when the market slows. They release space for new stocks in order to create demand,” says Adzman.

The raise in toll, petrol and parking charges may result in people heading to the mall closest to them instead of heading downtown which means downtown malls will be tourist-dependent, he says.

Retail Group Malaysia MD Tan Hai Hsin in a January 2014 report based on interviews with members of the Malaysia Retailers Association says the industy reported a sluggish third quarter for 2013. The July-September quarter grew 3.1% compared with 4.6% in the preceding quarter, and 4.8% for the same period in the preceding year.

Ramadan and Hari Raya, which fell on the third quarter of 2013, failed to lift overall retail sales, he says. This confirms Adzman’s views that on the Malaysia retail industry has been slow since the middle of last year.

In many ways, the retail sector and private consumption are good indicators for the overall economy.

The consumer sentiment index, according to Tan, dropped from 122.9 in the first quarter of 2013, to 109.7 (Q2) and 102.0 (Q3). The next batch of numbers to look out for will be National Property Information Centre (Napic) figures on transaction volume and transaction value.

This is expected to be released in March/April.

The jump in property prices at 30% to 35% a year in some areas since 2010 has changed the sector’s profile and has resulted in an equally stratospheric jump in interest among investors, with 20-somethings piling in.

In many ways, this is reminiscient of the 1990s stock market super bull run when college students and 20-somethings diligently applied for initial public offerings with the hope of a gain. They trotted a similar path in the recent bout of interest in the property sector.

Siva says “these young people are shielded from the international highs and lows of the global economy, and the national ups and downs, and whose trickle down effect is yet to be felt.”

“The introduction of developers interest bearing scheme (DIBS) enabled many to buy properties they cannot afford and don’t need. The question is: Will they be able to get tenants? If not, will they be able to pay the mortgage when payment kicks in?”

The introduction of cooling measures may also result in a shift in interest from the primary back to secondary market when buyers turn to sub-sales instead of buying directly from the developers. In an earlier report by Elvin Fernandez, managing director of Khong & Jaafar group of companies, he said in 2009 and 2010, primary transactions comprised about 12% and secondary market transactions about 87% of total residential transactions of 211,600 in 2009 and 226,874 (2010) respectively.

In 2011 and 2012, primary transactions went up to about a fifth of the total number of residential transactions whereas the secondary market accounted about 79% (or 214,044) and 77% (212,428) respectively. There was a drop in secondary market sales from 214,044 in 2011 to 212,428 in 2012.

Says Elvin: “This means there was a run-up in the primary sector of the market by about 35,000 units a year or close to 3,000 units a month.

The question today is, where will these group of ‘speculators’ turn to in their search for alternative investments?”

With fixed interest rates at about 3% per annum and volatility in the share market, will interest in the property market return to the secondary market? Will all the euphoria of the last several years mark a return to the days before 2009 when property investments were dull and boring? This lack of clarity is the reason why property seminars attract a full house.

Property’s hazy outlook

Last weekend, about 1,600 participants attended a property seminar called Property Outlook Conference 2014 in Kuala Lumpur.

Organised by an event organiser, speakers comprised property consultants, developers and property gurus. Participants comprised largely investors and investor-wannabes, property professionals from companies and real estate agencies, a sprinkling of analysts and the media.

One of the speakers says it was one of the largest groups he has ever spoken to when it comes to a local property seminar. Usually, the turnout hovers between 600 and 800, he says.

An executive director of an international property consultancy who was there says he felt as though he was attending “a multi-level marketing seminar.”

The fact that an event manager organised the seminar single-handedly, albeit with developers as sponsors, underscores the leverage offered by the property sector.

Secondly, the turnout underscores the investing public’s hunger for information, says two property professionals. Early bird registrants paid RM200 per pax, a couple paid RM499 while latecomers paid between RM800 and RM1,000 per pax. They were “hungry” because since the introduction of the cooling measures in October, coupled with the various price increase involving toll charges, petrol, electricity tariffs, cut in sugar subsidy, the sector has become rather opaque.

Says Malaysia Institute of Estate Agents (MIEA) president Siva Shanker: “Both developers and investors did not know what hit them post-Budget 2014. The last three months of 2013 were bad. The sector went into a tailspin.”

Siva says in the last four years, prices in some areas went up 30% to 35% in the span of a year – an unhealthy situation because the fundamentals were not there. On a national basis, the issue of house prices is not an issue, it is only in certain areas that prices have gone up multiple times in relation to annual household incomes, he says. He likens the property market before the budget to a car about to crash as it careens downhill, if the cooling measures were not introduced.

“If the car does not slow down, it will crash,” he says.

Siva says of all the sub-segments in the property sector, he is most concerned about the residential sub-segment, the main driver of the sector.

Siva says there is a huge oversupply in Kuala Lumpur, Penang and Iskandar Malaysia in Johor, including serviced apartments which are developed under commercial status.

The 2013/14 slowdown

Siva says not many may have realised it, but the property sector slowed down in 2013. “We think 2014 will see a slowdown of the sector, but that actually started in 2013.

“Sales are expected to be slow for the first two quarters. We expect to see sales going up in the second half of this year and find its own level, barring external factors. Sales will not be great, but it will not be as bad as first two quarters of this year,” says Siva.

“The goods and service tax (GST) due in April 2015 will create another bout of uncertain. Although most of the countries in the region – with the exception of Brunei and Malaysia – have some form of GST or value added tax (VAT), we have yet to experience its effect. We expect some knee-jerk reaction which will result in a price increase but it is 2016 that I expect prices to climb,” he says.

But before 2016, there is 2014 to deal with.

“2014 will be Iskandar Malaysia’s tipping point. (But) there is also a huge oversupply in Penang and the Klang Valley, especially high-rise projects, be there condominiums or serviced apartments,” he says.

Stocker Roberts & Gupta Sdn Bhd valuer Das Gupta who runs a firm about 10 minutes walk from the Petronas Twin Towers says the slowdown actually started in 2012.

“Many missed the signals,” he says. “Land and property prices around here (Kuala Lumpur City Centre) have been stagnating since 2012.

“That was a slow year. High-end properties around the KLCC and in Mont’ Kiara stopped moving forward the past one year in terms of both capital appreciation and rental.

“In some cases, rental and prices have dropped a notch or two,” he says.

How does one account then for the sale of a parcel of land sandwiched between Wisma Central and a Chinese temple fronting Jalan Ampang sold to Singapore-listed developer Oxley Holdings Ltd by Loke Wan Yat estate?

The 1.25 hecatres (3.1 acres) parcel was sold in December for a record RM3,300 per sq ft or RM446.7mil.

“That was an exceptional parcel because of its location and size. It is not the market norm and should not be used as a measure of overall property sector performance,” he says. Das says while land deals belong to the big boys’ arena, it is the ordinary people that he is most concerned about. “Nothing hits the rich,” he says.

Das says suburban vacant land with demand potential have become exorbitantly high. Some of these owners are second or third generation owners. They have no liabilities on these real estate. “Developers have to price their end products very high in order to justify paying such high prices. (So) they rather walk away.”

外资置產门槛提高 影响不大

整体来说，外资在大马市场的產业交易，比例不到3%，即使是在吉隆坡、檳城及柔佛，外资买家的比例稍微高出10%，就算是提高门槛影响產业市场的交易，对整体大市的影响也不会显著。

在大马南端吸引外资买家，特別是新加坡投资者的依斯干达，预料將面对新措施的衝击，假如柔佛州政府推行建议中的海外购买產业，从目前的1万令吉一律收费，调整为產业价值的4至5%，预料產业市场將深受衝击，外资的购兴可能会被削弱。

依斯干达Medini不受限制

值得一提的是，依斯干达的Medini，不需受到外资置產门槛调高的限制，在这里发展產业的发展商仍將受惠，外资依然可以购买价格不到100万令吉的產业。

为提供Medini外资一部份奖掖，在这里工作的海外技术人才，当他们准备脱售在Medini的產业，可豁免被徵收產业盈利税，財政预算案的公佈，並没有提到Medini这一块，显然可让Medini的投资者受惠。

国內其他大城市產业市场的外资投资，预料不会受到巴生河流域產业投资调高最低门槛的影响，主要地区的產业价格，几乎都在百万令吉以上。

檳城州政府其实已率先调高外资购买產业的最低价，分別是高耸分层產业100万令吉、有地住宅200万令吉；此外，檳州政府建议抑制外资投机產业措施，从2014年起，將对外资购买產业徵收產业价格3%的税收，只施用於住宅、商业与农业单位，不过，在檳城长期工作的海外专业人士，可提出豁免这项徵收的申请。

假如檳州政府建议中的措施付诸实行，相信海外投资者將发现檳城產业吸引力退减，他们可能转向其他城市探討適宜投资的產业。

伤害投资消费

许多人认为，房价上涨可为总体经济產生財富效应，认为財富增值可刺激消费，创造更多流动性，以加强投资能量；不过，房价高涨未必可以產生財富效果，可能是过度乐观跡象，也有可能伤害实体投资与消费能力。

在大马，过去数年產业市场交易热度升温，促使房地產价格飞涨，无法负担起高房价的焦虑心情也日益明显，特別是仍未购买房屋的年轻人，更是感受到沉重的生活压力。

2008／2009年全球金融风暴后的全面性量化宽鬆政策，促使国际经济与金融体系產生不少结构性问题，全球资金不断膨胀，资產价格继续上涨，可是，实体经济与消费能量却无法跟上，这是问题的最大关键。

消费力无法跟上

业界人士指出，当消费能力无法同步跟进时，最明显的是低租金回酬，低租金意味实体经济无法承担高房价带来高租金水平。如此一来，这不只是房市泡沫的问题，而是促使实体经济营运成本提高、投资意愿降低。

一般市民为了应付高房价带来的压力，直接影响其他方面的消费能力，进而影响经济资源的流动性，对原本已经疲弱的经济造成更大压力。

在资產规模膨胀过程中，负债这一块也会跟隨膨胀，一般我们用槓桿操作来形容，实质上是让实体经济与金融体系背负沉重的包袱。

流动性风险增

当一个经济体或企业进入高负债比例的结构，严重的流动性风险也跟隨而至，一旦交易速度降低，现金收入不足以应付流动需求，接下来发生的很可能就是倒闭，进而酝酿泡沫经济的產生。

专家认为，在本质上，泡沫是金融体系的垃圾，也可以是实体经济的毒瘤，这些年来，各国政府对房市泡沫发出一些“治疗”药方，可是，在本质上可能只是头痛医头、脚痛医脚，或暂时减轻疼痛。

2008金融风暴產生至今，到了2013年问题还在继续发酵，当前的国际经济体系是否有能力继续创造足够的流动性，以支撑高昂的房產基础，其实是很大的问號。

区域市场一些国家希望透过加强购屋补贴，以稳定房產市场与经济，其中存在严重矛盾，总体经济所谓的有效需求理论，指的是实体经济的振兴策略，而非支撑非实体经济泡沫的策略。

无可否认的，当前资產市场的困境，似乎比2008年更为严重，不过，如果一如以往，希望通过刺激购屋、来加强房產市场的流动性，只是拿实体经济中可做为其他消费支出的资源，去填补资產市场泡沫的无底洞。

海外投资者 或转战其他市场

海外投资者可能发现大马產业的光芒將褪色，他们大多数选择短期投资，加上外资只能购买100万令吉或以上的產业，相信会影响他们的策略。目前，投资者在新加坡及香港脱售產业取得收益，不需面对资本收益税的支出，而且这些市场过去10年的產业资本增值比大马高（参考图表），无可避免的，一些外资可能选择將资金投资在其他市场，而不是大马的產业领域。

不管怎样，与区域市场比较，大马的產业价格仍是本区域其中最便宜之一，对於外资在大马置產的限制也不多，在新加坡，海外投资者在该国购买產业，必须额外缴付15%的印花税，这使到海外投资者与当地买家相比，形势比较不利，因此，新加坡一些投资者重返大马市场。

在中期內，调高產业盈利税將造成產业市场走势放缓，主要是市场需要一些时间消化新的进展，不过，在接下来的6个月至一年，市场將恢復原有步伐。

前面提到，外资购买產业门槛从50万令吉提高至100万令吉，可能会打击外资对大马產业的购兴，不过，吉隆坡市中心、檳城乔治市以及南部的依斯干达，低於100万令吉的產业单位並不多，因此，提高最低价的门槛，预料对產业市场的交易，影响並不大。

產业盈利税 打击投机

政府提高產业盈利税，主要是打击人们频密买进、卖出產业，以赚取快利，此举將有助於促进產业市场的长期投资，而不是只为了短期收益。

政府在2007年豁免產业盈利税措施的实行，主要是振兴当时稍微疲软的產业市场，那一次的豁免，的確有助於重振產业市场的步伐，后来在2010年，政府恢復徵收该项税率，不过只是徵税5%，隨后在第二年调高至10%、接下来在2012又调高至15%，可是，並没有对降低產业市场的温度有所影响，特別是对一个依然保持活力的市场，影响程度相当小。

至於2014年財政预算案建议的新税率，则是个大跃进，预料一些投资者的步伐將稍微迟疑，同时也將促使產业投机者重新衡量是否继续进场。

房价涨‧钱包未必增胖

近年来產业价值持续走高，价格显著上涨，希望买一个比较理想的单位，显得越来越难，2008年至今，住宅產业价格大幅上扬，各造呼吁政府介入干预，以便抑制產业价格的涨幅。

在这期间，有关当局也有一些反应动作，並已实行相关措施，以期冷却產业市场的热度，避免资產泡沫的形成。

过去数年採取的措施包括重新实行產业盈利税，推出第三住宅產业最高贷款70%，以及指示金融机构以凈收入作为计算借贷者是否符合还贷能力的措施虽然这些措施在某种程度上取得一些效果，不过，依然被视为不足以抑制產业价格迅速的上涨，政府在提呈2014年財政预算案时，进一步公佈让產业市场降温的措施，这些措施包括调高產业盈利税、提高外国人购买產业的门槛、禁止推行发展商承担兴建產业期间利息等开销。

所谓的“发展商承担兴建產业期间利息”措施，买家通常只需支付屋价的5至10%首期款，直到產业完工才开始偿还银行分期付款，这项发展商承担兴建產业期间利息措施，减轻產业买家的首期付款负担，吸引买家加入购买產业的行列。

今年料建22.3万
可负担房屋

提到近年的可负担房屋热门话题，亨利行產业公司首席营运员邓志明说，政府与私人界在2014年期间，预计將兴建22万3千个单位，以可负担价格让市民更有能力购买房屋。

另外，政府將拨款5亿7千800万令吉给国家房屋部，以兴建1万6千473间廉价房屋，在可负担房屋计划下，政府也將拨备10亿令吉，以供应8万间房屋，这些房屋將比市价低20%。

与此同时，政府將推出私人可负担房屋计划，以鼓励私人界兴建更多中低价房屋，该项计划將津贴私人发展商个別单位3万令吉，兴建中低价房屋的发展商將优先获得补贴，在2014年兴建的单位料维持在1万个。

这是供2014年1月1日起批准的房產计划，拨款总额3亿令吉。此外，为数1亿令吉的拨款將提供给城市和谐、房屋与地方政府部的一马房屋维修基金。

拨8200万
恢復20搁置房產计划

政府也將拨款8千200万令吉，以恢復20项搁置房產计划，涉及房產单位总共8千197间。

2014財政预算案政府宣佈提高產业盈利税，一如市场预期，大马房屋发展商会对政府宣佈提高產业盈利税、撤销发展商承担兴建產业期间利息等措施深表失望。

较早前传出的提高產业印花税、降低產业价格对比贷款比率並没有出炉，这被视为有利於產业市场的发展，否则，將进一步加重市民的负担，对於加入產业市场的投资者也比较没有吸引力。

邓志明说，撤销发展商承担兴建產业期间利息措施，將导致產业市场的发展稍微放缓，不过，不至於广泛影响市场的发展。根据投资银行搜集的数据显示，提供发展商承担兴建產业期间利息的贷款，只佔6大银行住宅產业贷款的不到5%，他们普遍认为，不会对银行界的贷款成长造成显著影响。

新措施或打击发展商

住宅產业贷款也包括融资购买二手市场的房產单位，虽然对银行的影响不大，不过，可能对发展商新推出的產业计划有影响。

无论如何，发展商將推出其他的奖掖配套，以便促销他们的房屋，这些奖掖包括回扣。除了撤销发展商承担兴建產业期间利息措施，財政预算案也要求发展商公佈產业的售价凈值，这项新的规定预料將带给发展商一些烦恼，银行的估价师將以產业的售价凈值来发放贷款，同时將奖掖、回扣排除在外。

这项估价將导致產业的价值比买卖合约的价格低，產业购买者获得的贷款额度將比较小，发展商与银行皆无法避开这项条例，国家银行已发给银行相关指南，指示银行根据售价凈值发放贷款。

通膨上升‧零售產业放缓

2013年第二季，大马零售產业成长率4.6%，与之前一季比较显得稍低，与此同时，过去5个季度显著上扬的大马消费者信心指数，按季比滑落13.2点至109.7点，接著在第三季继续下跌至102.0点；燃油与白糖价格津贴撤销，推动通膨率上升，消费者信心继续受影响。

在市区一些零售產业中心，包括Sky Park@One City、蕉赖中环、Setia Walk，以及万宜Gateway购物中心开张启用后，使到空间供应增加170万平方尺，如今，累积供应量大约是4千480万平方尺。

去年，ARA Dragon基金收购的巴生百利广场，从2013年5月开始装修，装修后的巴生百利广场，將定位为一站式的市郊广场与休閒中心，以应付巴生社区的需求。

巴生百利广场顾客料增30%

一旦这项耗资1亿2千万令吉的提昇资產质量行动完成后，该广场將拥有66万零102平方尺的可出租面积，预计平均租金可调升20至30%。

隨著出租率上升至78.5%，新主导租户与迷你主导租户，包括GSC影院、甘达、百盛、宜康省、Voir专卖店与Ampang Superbowl，该广场预期顾客將从去年的800万人增加30%。

另外，大事装修的Avenue K，装修工程耗资6千500万令吉，以改善基本设施与佈置，重新设计的內部装饰与灯饰已经完工。

该广场位於吉隆坡城中城轻快铁站之上，主导租户为瑞典零售业財团H&M，设有亚洲最大的CottonOn商店，其他的主导租户包括Presto超级市场、Fitness First、Taste Enclave、大眾书局集团以及EMS Exhibits。

巴生河流域吸引国际品牌目光

著名的电子资讯中心刘蝶广场、武吉免登的BB Park將分5个阶段进行装修工程，首期工程耗资2千万令吉，接下来的装修工程包括：提昇刘蝶广场的內部装饰、兴建衔接武吉免登中央捷运通道，5阶段工程料在2016年完成。

儘管零售业成长放缓，巴生河流域零售市场继续吸引国际零售商的目光，品牌系列进一步增加。在升禧广场专卖店，法国名牌LouisVuition的租用空间，从原有的5千平方尺扩大至1万5千平方尺，至於Christian Dior的租用面积，则从5千平方尺增至1万平方尺。

此外，新品牌如Hermes与Gucci已登陆The Gardens购物商场。

世界上精细玩具店Hamleys，已开始进军大马和东南亚市场，首家旗舰商店於11月30日设在1Utama购物中心，租用大约2万零478平方尺的空间，在12个国家与地区拥有30家商店的Hamleys，计划在大马开设4家商店，分別设在吉隆坡国际机场、檳城及市区中心，另一家则设在巴生河流域的市郊商场。

於10月31日在Avenue K开设亚洲第二大商店的H&M，租用面积大约3万5千平方尺、概括3层楼，双威购物商场与檳城的1st Avenue商场，分別设有H&M在大马的第7与第8商店，H&M也计划在满家乐开设另一家商店。

国际零售商积极抢滩

美国女性成衣店Victoria Secret2013年7月在檳城的Gurney Paragon广场开设第7间商店，第8间则於11月在双威金字塔广场开张，接下来將在Paradigm Mall开设另一间分店。

另外，Uniqlo已宣佈在The Mines、成功时代广场、蕉赖中环及英雄广场设分店，这使到Uniqlo在全国的商店增至15间，今年將在USJ的The Main Place设立一家分店。

另一方面，英国的UK Label Superdry在吉隆坡的Pavilion登场，该公司与FJ Benjamin控股合作，后者是新加坡时尚產品公司，拥有品牌包括LaSenza、GAP、Banana Republic以及Guess。第二间將在谷中城购物商场开张，另一间预计在2014年营业。

Debenhams在大马的特许经营商店Stellar Retail私人有限公司，料於2014年在巴生河流域开设另一间商店，目前，Debenhams在升禧商场、The Curve以及檳城的Gurney Paragon设有专卖店，该集团计划接下来10年，在大马开设8家商店。

2013年12月，伦敦的Burton Menswear也在大马开设首3家概念商店，分別设在双威金字塔、Paradigm Mall以及檳城的Queesbay Mall。

世界最大的休閒与时尚鞋公司Clarks，不久前在吉隆坡Pavilion开设新的商店，以配合该公司的业务成长计划，该公司计划2015年之前，拥有50家商店。

零售產业空间供应
增190万平方尺

与此同时，有不少新的零售业中心营运日已展延至2014年，零售產业空间的新增供应大约有190万平方尺，预料將使到累积供应量在2014首半年增至4千670万平方尺，这些新的產业包括Nu Sentral、GAvenue、Encorp Strand Mall、The Place@One City、The main Place & D'Pulze购物商场。

巴生河流域许多首要的购物商场，继续展开提昇资產行动，以保持竞爭力，同时，为应付2014年及之后的新增供应做好准备。

为槟隆新山把脉 - 槟城 高档住宅放缓商务投资稳定

槟城 高档住宅放缓商务投资稳定

莱坊认为，打房措施料对槟城高档住宅产业冲击最大，商务领域相对稳定。

根据该调查报告，2013年下半年内，槟城的高档公寓二手市场销售率表现较上一年黯淡，旧公寓转手价格低于新公寓。

较新的公寓交易价格介于每平方尺介于500至800令吉，比较较旧的公寓则以450至650令吉价格转手。

不过，面积介于3500至6000平方尺的超豪华公寓则价格保持平稳。

积极开发威省南部

此外，随着槟城第二大桥通车，加上州政府积极开发槟岛和威省南部，这些地区未来前景乐观。

莱坊指出，峇都加湾即将设立名牌商品城，还有主题乐园、高尔夫球度假村，以及住宅和商务综合产业等发展计划，而且州政府也将该地发展成为教育中心，已引进GEMS国际学校和伯乐大学学院（KDU）。

此外，其他的商务投资还包括德国MagnetiMarelli汽车灯光厂和花旗银行集团（Citigroup）的“智慧型服务”中心。

花旗的“智慧型服务”中心还包括办公楼、服务式公寓、商务产业、SOHO和各项A级商办设施，将供应至少170万平方尺的办公室空间。

新山 Medini优惠多最有优势

莱坊指出，虽然柔佛政府计划对外国人无论购买任何类型产业都征税2%，加上今年开跑的降温措施，但这些举措对新山的产业市场打击还是属于轻微。

“基本上，新山高档产业都超过100万令吉的门槛，而且比较新加坡房产价格，大马房产价格还有很大差距，所以外国购屋者尤其新加坡人，会继续在柔佛州置业。”

新元持续增值，其他外国购屋者对努沙再也（Nusajaya）及其心脏地带玛迪尼（Medini）产业的购兴，都是持续支撑该地住宅产业市场因素。

玛迪尼是国内其中拥有最多投资奖掖的城市，拥有特别的经济地位，且外国购屋者也不受到100万令吉门槛的限制，自然成为柔州产业亮点。

中期前景稳健

中期内，柔佛新山的产业领域前景依然稳健，料有更多马来西亚和新加坡发展商前往依斯干达区发展。

莱坊调查报告指出，未来柔佛的发展计划将持续集中在新山市中心、金海湾（Danga Bay）、努沙再也和玛迪尼。

不仅是高档公寓或中价公寓，随着市场对于有素质办公楼和零售空间的需求增长，依斯干达区内甚至可看到更多购物中心和办公楼的发展。

住宅产业发展活动保持活络，推介的计划包括Eco Botanic、Isola Grandeur别墅、及双威（SUNWAY，5211，主板产业股）在新山的第一项产业发展计划———双威Lenang高原等。

零售空间维持在1208万平方尺，平均租用率为73.7%，主要地点的零售空间租用率则可高达80%以上。

根据该报告，去年下半年内，新山零售产业租金介于每月每平方尺15至40令吉。

截至去年第三季，新山政府与私人办公楼的净可出租面积达815万平方尺，出租率达73.3%；主要地点办公室租金介于每平方尺2.50至3.30令吉。

重整交通诱力大

在2010至2030年交通发展大蓝图下，柔佛州将重整交通设施。

这包括建立一个综合运输终站，设立连接新山和士古来、柔佛再也及努沙再也等城镇的巴士运输系统。

同时，也将提升其他交通系统，包括德士、水上德士和渡轮，此外也将规划学生巴士区。

“这项交通重新规划，将增加整个经济区的活动和提升竞争力，也有助吸引新加坡购屋者。”

莱坊指出，由于新加坡政府也出手打房，限制外国人在新加坡购买产业，无法在新加坡购屋的外资就有可能会转移到柔佛。

为槟隆新山把脉 - 巴生谷商办租金续受压

巴生谷商办租金续受压

随着办公楼市场的供应将持续超越需求，租金停滞不前而导致回酬率遭压缩，莱坊预计，未来办公楼租用市场料继续充满挑战。

根据莱坊的调查报告，租户不但有大量选择中，还有可能享受到一些优惠。

“因为楼主可能为了挽留现有租户和吸引新租户，给一些优惠，以维持办公楼的高租用率。”

2013年下半年内，吉隆坡市内的办公楼供应维持在4830万平方尺，而周边地带的供应则共增加至2050万平方尺；平均租用率从上半年的81.6%，微微增至83.2%。

同时，吉隆坡市周边地带的办公楼平均租金价格为5.96令吉，与上半年的每平方尺5.97令吉，大致持平。

A级和A+级的租金价格也保持稳健，每平方尺介于6.50令吉至12令吉。

莱坊指出，由于即将完成的办公楼相当多，办公楼租用市场因供应过剩料面对挑战的情况。

展延工程缓供应

“一些发展商选择展延他们的工程，一般是先取得租约后才开始兴建。”

无论如何，尤其位于吉隆坡市和周边地带，且拥有多媒体超级走廊（MSC）和绿色建筑指数（GBI）双认证的办公楼，还是会继续获得油气领域业者的青睐。

InvestKL积极吸引跨国公司到吉隆坡设立区域行政中心，这些举措将有助于缓冲掉吉隆坡市办公楼供应过剩会带来的冲击。

商场升级争客

政府进一步执行补贴合理化措施、电费和大道收费上扬，消费者或因开销增加而开始缩减购物活动，因此未来本地零售市场的前景谨慎乐观。

上半年内，零售领域增长表现料放缓，但因今年是大马旅游年，加上年终大减价、新学年开学和佳节消费，下半年内，零售领域的销售表现料恢复。

莱坊指出，2013下半年内，巴生谷的新零售空间达170万平方尺，整个市场供应高达4480万平方尺。而即将完成的零售空间供应达190万平方尺。

今年上半年内，市场内可累积面积高达4670万平方尺的零售空间，新的购物中心包括Nu Sentral、GAvenue、Encorp Strand购物中心、The Place@One City、The Main Place和D’Pulze购物中心。

该行预计，主要购物中心的租金走势料持续平稳，不过新租约或更新租约时，料取得更高的租金。

莱坊预见，巴生谷内多个主要的购物中心将继续升级，以增加竞争力。

酒店入住率提升

政府积极推广旅游业将带动需求，加上第二吉隆坡国际机场（klia2）料于今年5月启用，更多航空公司进驻，增加航线和班次带来游客，大马的旅游业料保持韧力，对酒店业有利。

莱坊指出，截至去年11月，4星级酒店房租微增2.4%至平均250令吉以上；5星级酒店房租则微增2.6%至平均450令吉以上。

截至去年下半年，吉隆坡的5星级酒店客房数量达1万1530间，4星级酒店客房数量则达8248间，总共达1万9778间。

而且酒店客房入住率也显著提升，4星级酒店达73%，较2013年上半年的65%高，5星级酒店则从71%增至下半年的75%。

其中，Concorde酒店、帝豪酒店（Dorsett Regency）、吉隆坡Melia和Novotel酒店等4星级酒店，和香格里拉酒店、威士汀酒店（Westin）、喜来登帝国酒店（Sheraton Imperial）、Le Meridien酒店和吉隆坡千禧大酒店（Grand Millennium）等5星级酒店，入住率超过80%。

为槟隆新山把脉 - 购屋能力处最高峰

政府去年一连串的打房措施若奏效，今年将看到房产炒作减少。

虽然这可收长利之效，但房产顾问认为，吉隆坡、槟城和柔佛新山的高价住宅，短期难逃一劫，但很快就会回调。

2014年开始一系列打房措施生效，虽说市场信心大致维持，但专家认为，短期内，国内备受购屋者关注的3个主要热点，包括吉隆坡、槟城和柔佛新山房价难免受冲击。

地产顾问公司莱坊（Knight Frank）《2013年下半年产业焦点》报告中指出，吉隆坡中高档住宅市场，未来6至12个月内料自行回调、槟城房市整体上处于盘整状态，新山则将面对小冲击。

为防止国内产业市场过热，政府出招打房，包括上调产业盈利税（RPGT）、禁止发展商承担利息计划（DIBS），和以产业净销售价格来决定贷款对估值比率（LTV）等措施。

随着这些措施于今年起执行，莱坊在其调查报告中指出，短期内，国内房产市场料遭冲击。

其中，我国首都吉隆坡的产业活动料受挫最严重；今年内，打房措施加上升息预期将减缓房屋需求，隆房市的前景料持续充满挑战。

该行预测，吉隆坡中至高档公寓市场，料于未来6至12个月内自行回调。

租金市场有压力

而且将有多达6277个高档公寓单位供应即将面市，所以主要地点的租金市场也将面对压力。

整体上，打房措施料减少市场内的投机活动，交易增长率放缓。

但联昌国际投行研究却担心巴生谷内商务产业供应过剩，租用率面对巨大压力，因此谨慎观察。

该行研究主管黄大任指出，2012年内，吉隆坡、槟城和柔佛3个产业热点的办公楼租用率达到国内最低水平。

同时，巴生谷内的零售空间和酒店租用率表现不见得比办公室好，2012年内租用率纷纷下滑，与2010和2011年的扬势相反。

至于槟城，莱坊认为，整体上会处于盘整状态，因2014年打房措施料冲击高档住宅产业，其他领域如商务产业领域则相对稳定。

狮城购屋者撑新山

随着槟城第二大桥即将通车，槟州政府致力于开发槟岛和威省南部，该些地区未来前景更加亮眼！

在我国的南部，尤其是柔佛依斯干达区，主要在新加坡购屋者支撑下，打房措施冲击料是3个产业热点最轻的一个。

不过，以长期投资来看，我国还是区域内较诱人的投资地点，因为这里的产业市场相对稳定，而且价格也相对低，可以持续给予投资者不错的回酬。

更多诱人优惠

政府一系列打房“狠招”无疑将冲击房产市场短至中期内收益，进而打击买卖活动的购兴。

以产业净销售价格来决定贷款对估值比率，影响所有房贷申请，包括真正买家———首次购屋者和二手市场的升级者。

另外，政府禁止发展商承担利息计划（DIBS），令投资成本增加。

莱坊预计，为了推高销售量保持市场地位，未来更多发展商会给予购屋者更大的折扣和免费礼物。

但同时也有不少发展商将采取观望态度，以衡量打房措施所带来的冲击。

供不应求 住宅无泡沬

联昌国际投行研究相信，政府今年内的一系列打房措施属正面举措，在不限制真正买家情况下，料有效抑制产业投机炒作活动，同时长期内有助除掉市场中的泡沫。

该行预计，产业购兴将于今年下半年内回笼，因为有潜质的购屋者将明白房价不但不会回调，尤其一旦消费税（GST）于2015年4月1日推行后，在通货膨胀的压力下，产业还是抗通胀最好的投资项目，反而会进一步激励产业价格。

购屋能力处最高峰

该行研究主管黄大任在分析报告中指出，该行并不担忧住宅产业价格泡沫化，因住宅产业价格上扬都是因为家庭收入增长而带动。

目前人民的购屋能力还是处于有史以来的最高峰。

在过去13年，产业价格复合年增长率（CAGR）为4.8%，而收入增长率则达5.6%，大致上产业价格走势与收入一致。

另外，他相信大马住宅产业市场基本面依然稳健，而且最大的问题不是需求过多，反而是供应不足。

“过去10至12年，大马住宅产业市场供应增长率持续下滑，从双位数增长率下跌至单位数，大概2%以下。

“2012年，国内住宅产业供应增长率最低去到1.6%，吉隆坡为1.1%，雪州为1.5%，沙巴则仅有0.1%。”

他解释，这就是为何房屋价格忽然增长加速。同时相信打房措施若进一步压抑房产供应，长期内，产业需求会继续增加支撑着产业价上扬趋势。

吉隆坡锁定郊区城镇

莱坊的研究报告指出，隆市内的有地房产还是能维持其竞争力。

价格介于60至80万令吉的有地房屋，以及50万令吉以下公寓料持续吸引强烈的需求，尤其是初次购屋者或升级消费者。

莱坊也预见，更多发展商会把焦点放在郊区城镇的发展，如万挠和加影，因为这些地区的可负担房屋需求依然强劲。

此外，轻快铁（LRT）延长线和捷运（MRT）路线内的地区，也料出现更多房屋发展计划。

公寓回酬率续收窄

尤其现货和新供应有限、土地成本更加昂贵、土地稀少、建筑成本增加、人力成本增加及本地需求支撑，特定的地区或产业热点成交量还会保持上涨趋势。

由于租金市场价格停滞不前，无法追上新推介房产项目的销售价格。去年下半年内，吉隆坡市主要地点中至高档公寓回酬率持续收窄；料于未来6至12个月内自行回调。

调查显示，截至去年下半年，吉隆坡市内，中至高档公寓至今累积达3万4563个单位，包括2109个单位已完成但未取得完工及落成准证（CCC）或俗称入伙纸的单位。

截至今年底，陆续完成的供应将高达6277个单位，其中51%就位于吉隆坡市中心，其余31%位于安邦地区，和18%位于满家乐。

莱坊指出，去年下半年内，尽管吉隆坡主要地点高档公寓售价和租金价格保持稳定，但叫价区间扩大了。

2013年首半年，每平方尺700至1650令吉，扩大至每平方尺680至1700令吉。

其中由于安邦或U-Thant地区供应增加，该地区高档公寓租金价格，去年下半年也只能微扬。

满家乐的租金也显示出转弱趋势，次季销售市场则持平。

Cautiously optimistic outlook with property developers in Iskandar expecting tough 2014

The “feel-good” factor that was prevalent in 2012 and 2013 for the property market in Iskander Malaysia is unlikely to continue this year following property cooling measures introduced by the Government in the last quarter of last year.

Property developers are rather cautiously optimistic on the market outlook for 2014 and are anticipating it to be a tough year for many.

Johor Real Estate and Housing Developers Association (Rehda) branch chairman Koh Moo Hing said the Year of the Horse would be more challenging and that developers must be well-prepared to face the worst.

“I assume that many of our members will adopt the wait-and-see approach in the first-quarter of 2014, to see the real impact from the (property cooling) measures,’’ Koh told StarBiz.

He said the measures were not something new as other countries would also resort to similar measures to ensure locals were not sidelined and denied from owning houses.

Koh said 2013 was the best year for 30 odd members of Johor Rehda who participated in the Malaysian Property Exposition (Mapex) held here in May and November.

He said these members raked in a combined RM3bil in sales over a one-month period.

“It would an achievement if they could repeat the sales figure again for this year’s events,” he added.

The 30-day period starting from the first day of Mapex is the benchmark used by Rehda to determine the value of sales by participating developers.

“Johor Mapex to be held in April will give a clearer picture on the Iskandar property outlook and how developers are coping with the uncertainties and challenges,’’ said Koh.

He said developers would be ready to face the tough year ahead and adapt well as they had experienced the ups and downs in the industry over the years and emerged stronger. Koh said that speculators would be phased out gradually from the property market with the implementation of the measures with owner-occupier buyers dominating the market. “This year’s launches will see between 100 and 200 units with more developers opting for landed houses as demand for them is still strong in Iskandar,’’ he said.

KGV International Property Consultants (M) Sdn Bhd director Samuel Tan Wee Cheng concurred with Koh that the market would see more serious buyers.

But he said buyers would be more cautious on the new policies – the real property gains tax (RPGT) and the hike in ceiling price from RM500,000 to RM1mil for foreign property buyers.

“Prices of houses will continue to go up this year, determined by the policies and escalating costs of labour and building materials,’’ said Tan.

He said it was matter of time buyers especially first-time house owners decided whether to continue waiting or make the kill before the prices move up north.

Tan said if the prices continued to go up, more buyers would go for the secondary market where prices were between 20% and 30% cheaper compared with new launches.

“For instance, the average selling price for a new double-storey link house in Iskandar is RM800,000 per unit, but if you look around in the secondary market, you’ll be paying RM600,000 for it,’’ he said.

Tan said landed houses in the secondary market came with generous land size and bigger floor area plus ready amenities and facilities within the neighbourhood or the development.

He said if this could prompt developers to lower the selling prices of their new launches to attract potential buyers and also offer no-frills houses to cut costs.

Tan said foreign buyers would continue to buy properties in Medini, Nusajaya as there was no restriction to foreign ownership in the area and they were not subject to the RPGT regime.

SP Setia Bhd divisional general manager Hoe Mee Ling said many uncertainties in both global and domestic market might affect the property market in the first-half of 2014.

She said among the issues were the pressure of increasing costs as a result of skilled labour shortage, reduction in subsidies beginning with petrol last September and electricity tariff adjustment in 2014 and policy changes.

“However, challenges always come with opportunities and there are still positive factors in the Iskandar property market,’’ said Hoe.

She said the fundamental demand for properties in Iskandar would remain high and strong as long as developers could adapt to their products to suit this demand.

Hoe said the outlook was still good as properties fetched good yields and were the best hedge against inflation.