Developers' focus shifts with Second Penang Bridge

The Star

Despite a softening property market on Penang island and Seberang Prai, Kuala Lumpur and Penang-based developers will be undertaking projects to the tune of RM4.56bil this year, a check with various developers show.

The island, however, is seeing fewer residential property launches due to land shortage, higher land cost and a challenging property market environment. Nevertheless, Raine & Horne director Michael Geh says the gross development value (GDV) of the projects launched on the island this year will still be higher.

Geh says the price of vacant land in Batu Maung has increased to RM250-RM300 per sq ft.
Of this RM4.56bil, about RM1.86bil will be residential and commercial projects planned in Seberang Prai, while the remaining RM2.7bil will be on the island.

Although in value terms the island will have a lion’s share, much of the focus is expected to be on Seberang Prai, located on Peninsular Malaysia.

To a large degree, the focus on Seberang Prai has been triggered by the announcement of the second bridge by Malaysia’s fifth prime minister and Penangite Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi in the Ninth Malaysia Plan in August 2006. Since then, property prices in Seberang Prai and on the island have risen significantly. One can consider 2006 as the watershed where Seberang Prai is concerned.

The opening of the RM4.5bil second Penang bridge on March 1 is also expected to spur a second wave of interest.

The connectivity is expected to boost retail, for a start. There are plans to develop a RM200mil premium retail outlet known as Penang Designer Village and an integrated shopping mall which will be anchored by an IKEA store in Seberang Prai.

Henry Butcher Malaysia (Seberang Perai) Sdn Bhd Fook Tone Huat during a press conference in Prai, Penang yesterday.

PE Land Sdn Bhd will undertake the Penang Designer Village, while the integrated shopping mall with residential components will be developed by Aspen-Ikano.

Residential development is also expected to improve with the entry of big players into that area in terms of style and design.

Last December, Mah Sing Group Bhd acquired 30.9ha in Jawi, comprising 20 pieces of prime freehold contiguous land, for RM400mil. Its group managing director and chief executive Tan Sri Leong Hoy Kum says the group plans to introduce an integrated township called Southbay East.

Leong says the township is currently at the planning stage. He says the freehold township located just 6.6km from the Jawi toll plaza on the North-South Expressway is expected to attract those who work and live in Southbay East’s immediate surroundings. The property developer is proposing linked homes, semi-detached units and town houses. There will also be a club-house.

But land prices may become an issue. Henry Butcher Seberang Prai’s associate director Fook Tone Huat says vacant land prices in the area, especially those in south Seberang Prai where the second bridge is located, are now hovering between RM40 and 50 per sq ft, a huge jump from 2006’s RM8-RM9 per sq ft.

Land prices in Central and North Seberang Prai were then between RM20 to RM40 per sq ft, compared with today’s range of between RM50 and RM100 per sq ft. The increase in land prices has translated into higher property prices.

“New landed properties such as double-storey terraced units in South Seberang Prai are now priced between RM350,000 and RM400,000 compared with between RM150,000 and RM200,000 prior to 2006,” Fook says.

Double-storey terraces in prime locations in Central and Northern Seberang Prai have doubled from RM200,000-RM270,000 range to RM400,000-RM600,000.

“We are also seeing a lot of life-style condominium projects being planned in Bukit Mertajam this year with new units priced at at around RM300 per sq ft,” Fook says.

As for the secondary or sub-sales market, double-storey terraced houses have a wide price range of between RM250,000 and RM500,000, depending on location.

Landed properties in the sub-sales segment command the best pricing in Bukit Mertajam and Butterworth town.

Despite the interest in Seberang Prai, Fook expects the volume of property transactions to soften this year, due largely to the difficulty in obtaining housing loans.

“There will definitely be fewer transactions this year compared with about 12,000 registered for 2013.

“Since January, we have seen fewer enquiries for primary and secondary market properties as the rejection rate of housing loans is currently at about 60%. Property prices are expected to remain more or less the same as last year,” Fook adds.

Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association (REHDA, Penang) chairman Datuk Jerry Chan says due to the tightening of bank loans, he expects the volume of property transactions to decline by about 30% this year.

“The overall transacted value will also fall by about 20%,” he says. Raine & Horne’s Michael Geh expects properties in the secondary segment to remain stable, while those in the primary market might soften slightly.

“There will definitely be a dip in the volume of transactions, due to the stringent loan conditions,” Geh says.

Despite issues about buyers getting the margin of financing they would like to have, this does not seem to have deterred developers from entering the Seberang Prai market in a fairly big way.

DNP Land, which is part of Singapore’s Wing Tai group, will be developing a RM250mil condomonium project known as Bukit Mertajam Mahkota and the RM550mil Jesselton Hills landed property scheme in Bukit Mertajam, located in Central Seberang Prai. Tambun Indah Land Bhd is also planning RM616mil worth of landed property launches for Bukit Mertajam and Pearl City in Simpang Ampat, south Seberang Prai.

DNP Land (North) general manager K.C. Tan says the Bukit Mertajam Mahkota project will be the town’s first high-end condominium development. As for Jesselton Hills in Alma, it will have 200 units of semi-detached and terraced houses.

“The projects are strategically located between the first and second bridges, and is close to Jalan Song Ban Kheng, a prime residential district. They are also surrounded by the Prai and Bukit Minyak Industrial Parks and Penang Science Park.

“We expect buyers from Kedah, especially from Kulim High Tech Park, as Bukit Mertajam is the main connecting point between Penang and Kedah,” Tan says.

IJM Land, known for its Penang island Light project, is also launching RM236.5mil worth of properties comprising double-storey houses in Jawi, south Seberang Prai, and double-storey linked bungalows in Bukit Mertajam, central Seberang Prai. One of Kuala Lumpur’s heavyweight, Sunway Bhd is also planning to launch some RM150mil worth of residential and commercial projects for the second phase of Sunway Wellesley in Seberang Prai, a mixed-development project in Bukit Mertajam, at the end of this month, while the RM60mil third phase, comprising resort condominiums, will kick off in October.

Sunway Bhd general manager Tan Hun Beng says the group will be launching more properties in Seberang Prai as the lower land prices there has allowed the group to price its properties affordably. In June this year, Sunway will launch the RM80mil Sunway Cassia third phase, double-storey semi-detached and three-storey terraced houses, in Batu Maung, in Seberang Prai.

The focus on Seberang Prai, by no means, mean that there is less interest on the island. In fact, property prices have grown by leaps and bounds the last several years. This year, however, will see less launches of landed units, due largely to land shortage and high prices.

Raine & Horne Malaysia director Michael Geh says the price of vacant land has increased to around RM250 to RM300 per sq ft in Batu Maung in the southern part of the island, where the second bridge is located, from about RM50 to RM60 per sq ft prior to 2006. This effectively means that in just eight years, land prices have increased by 400%.

However, Geh also says land prices depend on what the land is being zoned for, whether it is agriculture, commercial or residential usage. This increase in land prices coupled with other factors have resulted in higher property prices.

New two- and three-storey terraced houses on Penang island now cost about RM1.2mil in the south of the island, compared with about RM450,000 prior to 2006.

“New condominiums in similar locations are now priced at RM700,000-RM800,000, compared with RM250,000-RM300,000 prior to the second-bridge announcement in 2006. In the prime locations of the north-east districts such as Tanjung Bungah, Tanjung Tokong, and Pulau Tikus, new lifestyle high-rise units start from RM800,000 onwards, doubled what it used to be in 2006,” Geh says.

How sustainable are these prices? The reponse to launches will be an indication.

Eastern & Oriental Bhd will be launching its RM800mil Andaman Edition 18 East condominium scheme on the island in the first half of this year. IJM Land will introduce its RM125mil Trehaus@Bukit Jambul. This comprises condominium villas and semi-detached villas, and a yet-to-be-named medium and low-medium cost project, which has a RM177mil GDV, in the fourth quarter of this year.

S P Setia will launch in the second half the RM300mil Setia Sky Vista, a condominium project, in Relau.

These launches will be keenly watched.

Soaring house prices -- Putting the cart before the horse

The Star

When the majority can’t afford the first house, why bother with second house buyers?

DEVELOPERS continue to be in denial about the current housing situation or, worse still, are only interested in serving the desires of those who are seeking a second house.

The study by Sime Darby Property in collaboration with the Faculty of Built Environment of Universiti Malaya (UM) is irrelevant to most of us as it concerns a very niche market.

It is the wish of the National House Buyers’ Association (HBA) that our intellectuals, who are employed by our tax payers, spent their time solving the problem of why prices are so high and how they may be reduced instead of doing prospecting studies which only developers would be interested in. The HBA expresses its dismay with this recent study which concluded that “homes (sic) in selected areas in the Klang Valley are still accessible to homeowners (sic) who may be looking to upgrade or to invest in a second home (sic).”

A snapshot of some of the findings from the said study by Sime Darby is reproduced below:

Question of affordability

For what it is worth, what great truths does the study uncover anyway?

The most affordable house in the Sime Darby-UM study is in Melawati and the household income required is RM9,360. This means that even the most affordable property is already beyond the reach of the majority in Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya and even Selangor based on the Household Income Survey conducted by the Statistics Department in 2012. As the 2013 numbers are not released, we have assumed an optimistic 8% increase in household income from 2012.

Also, the property listed in Nilai requires a household income of RM9,430 which is almost twice the mean household income of Negri Sembilan and even exceeds the mean household income of Kuala Lumpur.

Hence, it can be concluded that some properties in the selected areas are beyond the reach of the majority in Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya and Selangor. We must stress that the so-called mean household income assumes two working spouses. As such, the situation is very bleak for aspiring single house buyers – even fresh graduates. This group will never be able to buy their own homes unless more drastic measures are taken by the Government.

Homeless Generation

Malaysia is facing a “Homeless Generation” syndrome where our future leaders cannot afford their own homes. Unless drastic action is taken, Malaysia will face many social problems with far-reaching ramifications. Yet, these developers, assisted by our intellectuals, continue to market houses at sky-rocketing prices. This only accentuates the problem for first-time house buyers.

Indeed, the survey sounds like Marie Antoinette’s solution to the starving masses: “Let them eat cake if they have no bread”. If you can’t afford any house, why not buy a “second” house as soon as possible because at the rate prices are increasing, these too will be out of your reach soon.

Are the desperate Malaysian masses being told to take burdensome housing loans only to face foreclosures later for the benefit of the banks? Already, the people are struggling to balance their household budgets and are reduced to accepting handouts from the Government.

Do meaningful public research

The study, nevertheless, reveals a situation that HBA has been trying to warn the Government about for years – that is, property prices are beyond the reach of fresh graduates and single parents. More research needs to be undertaken by our intellectuals to “control prices of materials like cement, sand, steel and cost of doing business,” and find ways how utility companies like Syabas, Tenaga Nasional, Telekom and statutory GLCs do not increase tariffs but force developers to built infrastructures thus hiking up house prices. After all, the developers will continue to factor all the “costs” plus hidden ones into the sale price which will be passed down to house buyers.

Sime Darby-UM has since clarified that their study is only for upgraders and not first-time house buyers.

The clarification has been made that the study was “based on a group of 1,183 home owners in selected areas in the Klang Valley. It does not cover first-time buyers. The findings are based on the average household income of respondents who already own homes in the specified locations”.

This only begs the question: So what? Why bother at all? Was it to back our developers’ business with information based on objective studies from our leading university? Why is public money spent on research for the benefit of developers who want to market their products to second-timers?

The study is not without its merits though. We are told: “Based on the findings, the current price-to-income ratio in the Klang Valley for those who are interested in purchasing a second home or upgrading is 56 times the average monthly household”. Don’t we know that? If Klang Valley residents can afford to buy a second home, would they want to buy another one in the same congested and stressed out Klang Valley?

Conclusion:

The Government must take concrete and proactive measures:

> Ensure steady supply of affordable houses to cater to the demands of the lower and middle class income groups;

> Protect our young from drowning in debts;

> Stem the rapid rise of property prices due to false demand and speculation; and

> Get our intellectuals to study the problem from the perspective of first-time buyers and the looming homeless generation

Young adults unable to afford a reasonable house that does not require taking out a back-breaking bank loan are moving out to faraway housing estates that involve daily mind-numbing commuting. Anyone want to do a study on first-time house buyers and affordability?

Chang Kim Loong is the honorary secretary-general of the National House Buyers Association (HBA): www.hba.org.my, a non-profit, non-governmental organisation manned purely by volunteers.

產业领域 准备迎接下跌週期

產业领域经过4年荣景之后，2014年预计將进入下跌週期。虽然该领域长期的基本面仍完好，比如人口结构及经济成长等，但是一些週期性的短期因素，却开始转坏。

艾芬投行分析员整体上预测，发展商的新盘认购率將会放慢，竞爭剧烈的市场，將导致赚幅下滑。

同时，银行领域谨慎的放贷，政府的打房措施也將导致销售放缓。

此外，房价高企，影响人们的购房能力，也是房產销售料减速的原因。虽然如此，分析员仍相信，產业公司的销售仍会保持成长的趋势，因此，股价下跌的空间也有限。

拉昔胡申研究分析员则更乐观，这主要是因为在预算案的打房措施出炉將近5个月之后，產业领域的股价已经全面反映这负面的因素，加上即將进行的多项基建计划预计將会激励行业的成长。

因此，分析员將投资评级上调至「加码」，並建议从小资本產业股转向大资本產业股。

新供应达到新高

2009至2010年期间，大马新动工的房產计划达到最低水平，每季供应平均只有1万6000至2万个单位。然而，这样的情况，最后已经逐步改善，到了2013年每季平均供应达到3万4000个单位，截至2013年12月底，即將竣工的新供应达到歷来最高水平，57万1000单位。自2007年以来，有规划的供应维持在44万至48万个单位的稳定水平。

中新加入市场

大马土地价格处於相对具吸引力的水平，让中国及新加坡投资者趋之若鶩，加上这两个国家都面对政府的严厉打房措施，促使投资者纷纷寻求其他投资选择。这趋势，也让新加坡及中国发展商爭相进入大马房產市场。外国发展商进驻导致土地价格被推高，影响发展商日后发展计划的赚幅。此外，部份中国发展商採取激进模式，推出大量新盘，不但造成更剧烈的竞爭，也使特定地区出现供过於求的现象。

打房措施衝击

大马政府在2014年財政预算案中，宣布多项为房產市场降温的措施，这些措施包括，提高產业盈利税（RPGT），上调外国人可购买房產的最低价格水平，从原本的50万令吉，提高至100万令吉，同时，也禁止发展商为客户承担利息计划（DIBS）。国家银行过后也向银行机构发出通知，指示所有银行在考虑房贷申请时，必须以净產业价格，作为计算房產价值的標准，即调整所有回扣，折扣及赠品之后的价格。

此外，多个州属政府也宣布个別的打房条例，其中，檳城州政府就对购买房產的外资徵收3%的税务，柔佛政府也对购买房產的外国人徵收2%的税务。这些措施都对房產领域不利，尤其是那些以外国投资者为主的房產计划。至今，许多房屋发展商及潜在投资者仍採取观望態度，以评估这些措施將造成的影响。

可负担能力降低

艾芬投行分析员指出，房屋价格整体上超越通货膨胀及薪金增长的幅度，自2009年底以来房產价格的涨幅达到43%。

房屋价格持续走高，加上银行利率预期將上调，以及政府削减津贴造成生活成本上扬，將导致人们购买房產的可负担能力减低。政府削减汽油，白糖及能源津贴，导致物价走高，在通胀压力下，艾芬投行预期，国家银行在未来18个月內將上调利率25至50个基点。这均將影响人们购买房子的能力，打击购屋意愿。

此外，分析员也预期2015年4月，消费税（GST）正式上路后，人们的生活成本將会进一步上扬，届时购买房子的能力將会更低。

分析员相信，房產价格仍会企稳或稍微走高，主要是因为成本继续提高。同时，新房產销售及认购率则预计將显现疲软走势，因为剧烈的市场竞爭，加上，打房措施衝击，以及人们购买房產能力进一步下滑。在这样的趋势中，房屋发展商的赚幅预期將会受到压缩。

为了减少这下滑趋势的影响，发展商也开始调整他们將推出的產品及行销策略。这包括在各房產热点，推出新產品。多元化產品的地区，以减少风险，並渗透更大群的投资者。房產发展商也將產品焦点转向有地房產，因这一类房產的需求稳健。此外，发展商也更积极的招揽新加坡、印尼、中国、香港及日本的买家。

另一方面，官联公司及州政府相关机构在推动房產发展计划方面非常积极。部份政府主导的產业计划，预期將为得標的產业公司带来良好发展机会，但同时这一类计划也將对其他业者带来竞爭，尤其是一些有特別优惠的项目，比如，敦拉萨交易中心（TRX）及美迪尼，或政府资助的基建计划。

拉昔胡申研究分析员指出，一些大型基建计划，如马新高铁，捷运第2及第3线路，桂莎白莎罗计划等，预计都將为產业领域带来重估动力。

而檳城產业发展就主要是在峇都加湾的投资；而依斯干达地区的需求可能需要更长的时间实现，目前市场传言，当地可能兴建一家新赌场，若真如此，预料將可加速当地產业市场的走势。

投资焦点转向大资本產业股

艾芬投行分析员指出，虽然他们对本地產业领域的前景谨慎，不过，却也相信產业公司在2014及2015年的净利表现仍然稳健。这主要是因为有大数额的未入账销售的作为支撑。

艾芬投行相信，其所追踪的6家產业公司，在2014年將会继续取得15%盈利成长，来到2015年也仍然还会有5%盈利成长。这盈利成长贡献部份將来自海外业务，这些公司主要是行业领导者，包括IOI產业（IOIPG，5249，主板產业股），实达集团（SPSetia，8664，主板產业股），而一些则將通过脱售土地取得成长，比如丽阳机构（Trop，5401，主板產业股）。

虽然產业领域的整体前景谨慎，但分析员认为產业股股价下跌空间有限。这主要发展商股价已从2013年的高峰，回退9-28%，目前价格对重估净资產值比率是0.4至0.6倍合理水平。

同时，房產商资產负债表仍强稳，2014及2015年也预期將会继续取得盈利成长。加上长期基本面没有改变，人口结构仍支撑房產需求，稳定的经济成长也让人们继续对购买房子有慾望。分析员仍给予產业领域「中和」评级。

首选股是IJM置地（IJMLand，5215，主板產业股），建议「买入」，目標价是3.30令吉。分析员表示，IJM置地有很好的管理层，品牌声誉佳，所持有的地库分佈在多个不同地区，而该公司的强项也是需求仍殷切的城镇及中高价位房產。

市场喊买

分析员也看好丽阳机构，建议「买入」，目標价为1.80令吉。主要是因为这家公司有位於策略地点的地库，估值也处於偏低水平，价格对重估净资產值比率是0.4倍。该公司持续將资產套现及为降低债务而努力。

拉昔胡申研究分析员则认为，负面因素已反映在產业股股价上，因此，他將產业领域的投资评级，上调至「加码」。

分析员指出，產业股目前是以比重估净资產值折价33%水平交易，虽比大选前的水平高，但是却仍比近期最高水平低13%。

拉昔胡申研究建议將焦点转向大资本產业股。分析员指出，小资本產业股在2013年已上涨59%，相对大资本股的同时期涨幅是26%。

鑑於这小型產业股在过去一年已大幅走高，分析员认为是时候转向大资本產业股。

而这些业者也是行业內拥有更强稳资產负债表，良好管理层，有卓越执行记录，更多地库，和品牌声誉更佳的公司。

分析员指出，这些大型產业股目前的估值正处於具吸引力的水平。

分析员也预期2014年下半年，经济將会进一步走稳，加上消费税开跑之前的需求，相信將会推升產业市场在下半年取得更好的表现。

拉昔胡申研究的首选股是IJM置地及双威（Sunway，5211，主板產业股），同时也看好恆大置地（Tambun，5191，主板產业股）及金群利集团（Matrix，5236，主板產业股）。

PNB’s property dilemma

The Star

Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) can easily be counted as the biggest property baron in the country and probably among the largest in the region too. However, it has not projected itself as a global property player thus far.

If all the property assets under PNB were moulded into one frame, the fund could be compared to the likes of Singapore’s CapitaLand Ltd and Hong Kong’s Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.

Both directly and indirectly, PNB owns the biggest parcels of land throughout Peninsular Malaysia and buildings in the most strategic of locations in Kuala Lumpur.

It has swathes of plantation land that can be converted for the use of property development via listed and unlisted companies such as S P Setia Bhd, Sime Darby Property Bhd, I&P Group Sdn Bhd, Pelangi Bhd and Petaling Garden Bhd.

When Sime Darby, which is majority controlled by PNB, was merged into a single large giant in 2007, proponents of the exercise prided the entity as having the largest land bank on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur.

It stretched from Rawang in the north right up to Nilai and Seremban in the south. Whether that potential is monetised, however, is a story for another day.

In the commercial building space, the overwhelming presence of PNB buildings in Kuala Lumpur is hard to miss.

Along Jalan Sultan Ismail, it owns the Kenanga International Building that is sandwiched between the Tradewinds Centre and the under-reconstruction Equatorial Hotel. Opposite Kenanga International, PNB owns the old Malaysia Airlines headquarters that is being converted into a service apartment and hotel.

Over at the Kuala Lumpur City Centre (KLCC) area, meanwhile, PNB has its headquarters, Darby Park, along Jalan Tun Razak, which is also a service centre. The list of buildings owned by PNB can go on. From KLCC to Damansara to Cyberjaya, it has a presence.

PNB is also an aggressive accumulator of office properties overseas, especially in London. In 2012 alone, PNB was reported to have acquired four office properties in London. Even based on the exchange rate appreciation between the sterling pound and ringgit alone, it would be sitting on handsome returns by now.

In the Battersea Power Station project in London, PNB is the major shareholder by virtue of two of its companies – S P Setia and Sime Darby – cumulatively having majority control of the project.

The mother of all office-cum-commercial buildings in PNB’s stable, however, is yet to come – the 118-storey Menara Warisan Merdeka that is being built within the vicinity of Stadium Merdeka. The contract to do the ground work was awarded two weeks ago, signalling that the fund will go ahead with the building despite concerns on the slowdown in the office space segment of the property market.

When Menara Warisan Merdeka is completed, PNB will seal its place as among the largest owners of commercial and office property in the region and Asia. In a nutshell, PNB’s portfolio of property assets makes it a global player.

However, it lacks the dynamism that comes with being a major regional property player. There is nothing really wrong if a development company lacks dynamism, but it does lead to the perception that PNB’s property assets are too big for it to handle and are hence ripe for some merger and acquisition activities.

Predators might swoop in on PNB’s stable of assets and try their luck in acquiring some of its better properties or companies on the grounds that the fund is unable to maximise what’s in its stable.

This may be far from the truth. But perception counts, especially in the business world where politics and business form a close nexus.

Within the stable of PNB’s property companies, there are two personalities who tend to lead the property thrust – Datuk Jamaludin Osman of I&P and Datuk Abdul Wahab Maskan who heads Sime Darby Property.

Both are seasoned developers and already have a big portfolio of property assets to look after.

But will they be the only faces to PNB’s property foray in and outside Malaysia?

PNB appears not to be averse to getting external help in adding value to its portfolio of assets. For instance, Goldman Sachs is one of the advisers hired to help streamline its slew of property businesses and assets.

In the same breath, shouldn’t the fund cast its net far and wide to get more professional property developers to sweat its assets then?

Until PNB displays its strength in being able to work its assets on their own, it will be a target for the well-connected. So far, the fund has managed to fend off the predators.

The case in point is the building of the 118-storey tower where it managed to stave off strong lobbying that had hoped to see the iconic building being located in 1Malaysia Development Bhd’s Bandar Malaysia in Sungai Besi.

But PNB on its own also has to show that it is willing to allow the best of professional managers to help lead its property thrust.

雪隆活跃、依区仍热 中国购屋客微减

市场开始广传，MH370事件影响波及我国房地产，因为中国客大减，但根据《南洋商报》抽样向发展商了解，来看房的中国投资者的确减少，但情况并非“糟糕”。

除了传统上的雪隆一带，中国客在大马投资房地产比较活跃的地区，依斯干达特区的努沙再也和金海湾可说是目前最热的据点。

《南洋商报》向在努沙再也及金海湾项目的发展商了解，目前每天依然有中国投资者到来，但无可否认，人潮不及MH370事故前多。

外媒报道夸大其词

但他们相信，这只是短暂现象，并不影响我国房地产吸引外资的魅力，或是与邻国房地产相比的实力。

他们认为，外媒报导MH370事故打击大马房地产的报导是夸大其词，因为外国买家占整体房地产投资者仍然偏低。根据统计，外国投资占全国房地产投资仅约4%至7%。

业者认为，MH370是独立事件，且与房地产领域没有直接关系，不能一概而论。

一位在努沙再也有项目的高管受访时坦承，从中国来的购屋团的确减少，但依然每天有人来，只是数量不及之前。

情绪反弹 魅力仍在

“目前人潮减少只是情绪上的反弹，因为房地产是长线投资，而且我国其实有很多吸引外资的魅力。”

中国《第一财经日报》引述仲量联行国际资本集团亚太区总监米道斯报道，马来西亚的土地市场较为宽松。

“与新加坡、悉尼相比，在马来西亚买地更便捷、更便宜，而且马来西亚有大量华人，所以对中国的开发商有较大的吸引力。”

去年占海外投资总额37% 大马房产仍是中资首选

我国去年是中国房地产海外投资的首选，中国投资者在我国房地产投资占海外房地产投资总额的37%；进入2014年，这种势头有增不减。

2年前开始，陆续有中国发展商到依区来投资，碧桂园是第一家进军我国的中国发展商，项目大且活跃，几乎每天都会有中国团来看房。

大马房价属区域最低

其他在依区投资的中国发展商也包括了富力地产、绿地集团、雅居乐地产和新华联等。

一位要求匿名的主管强调，外国投资者主要是看房产增值。

“再说我国的房地产价格，相对区域国家还是最低的，加上中国、香港、台湾和新加坡等国打房比我国严厉，这些国家的投资者还是认为我国吸引力较大。”

他以该公司一项公寓计划为例，第二期的公寓售价已比首期的涨了约20%。

中国办事处如常运作

因为中国市场大，一些大马发展商也在中国主要城市，如北京和上海等设有办事处，有的则委任房产代理，协助推广行销。

据本报向在中国设有办事处的发展商了解，当地分行照常运作。

另外，一位主导努沙再也项目的发展商资深经理指出，该公司在中国的行销并未停止，而且在MH370事件后仍有成交。

他指出，日前在中国举行的行销汇报会上，现场的投资者对大马的兴趣依然浓烈。

“现场还是来了不少人，并积极询问有关外资在大马投资房地产的种种，例如价格对比、回酬趋势、外资购房限制或优惠等等。”

他认为，这些询问的人都是“认真”的潜在买家，而且投资意愿显然没有因马航事件被击退。

碧桂园如常发布业绩

就在MH370事故发生后4天，碧桂园举行业绩发布会，但据报道，管理层并没有对马航事件表示过多担心。

毕竟，大马只是碧桂园全球布局中的一部分。

《第一财经日报》引述碧桂园的战略管理中心相关人士表示，该公司没针对马航事故进行危机公关处理，相信此事不会延续太久。

马航事件影响短暂

“马航事件发生后，部分中国人对马来西亚有负面情绪，这种情绪在短期内会对项目产生影响，但在东南亚地区2年的经营，碧桂园已积累较高的知名度，在马来西亚的项目都会按计划推进。”

碧桂园在我国共有3项计划，除了金海湾项目，另在雪州加影和万挠有两幅地段。

当中，金海湾发展总值约160亿元（约85亿令吉），该公司财务副总监刘嘉毅在发布会上指出，目前还剩余55亿元（约29亿令吉）房源待售。

位于加影的钻石城项目去年10月推出首期约5亿元（约2.7亿令吉）的别墅单位，目前已全售出。整项计划的发展总值约22亿元（约11.6亿令吉）。

刘嘉毅称，预计会在今年下半年推出上述2个项目的剩余货量。

当被问及是否会对大马项目降价促销时，上述碧桂园战略管理中心相关人士并没有正面回答，而是说“碧桂园目前在马来西亚的销售工作仍按计划推进”。

中国客为主力军 中资发展商料冲击更大

到依斯干达特区，努沙再也和金海湾吸引的外国买客比较多，尤其是由中国发展商推动的项目。

中国《第一财经日报》报道称，中国人对MH370事故的负面情绪，相信对中国发展商的影响比较大，因为这些项目的消费主力军部分来自中国。

该报引述房地产资讯机构克而瑞研究中心研究经理朱一鸣指出，马航事件对碧桂园在大马的项目销售肯定会产生较大影响。

碧桂园是第一家到我国依区投资的中国发展商，且主要客源来自中国。

朱一鸣分析，已进入我国的中资开发商，例如富力地产、绿地集团、雅居乐地产和新华联等，必须调整相应的营销策略。

他以碧桂园为例，此前通过楼盘折扣吸引大批中国客户，现在这种做法的效果将因马航事件而大打折扣。

金群利集团预览推介 Sendayan Metropark店铺办公楼

金群利集团（MATRIX，5236，主板产业股）近期为发展总值6000万令吉的Sendayan Metropark店铺办公楼进行预览推介礼。

由于登记者反应热烈，预览推介礼以抽签方式进行，50个单位也在一个小时内售罄。

金群利集团董事经理兼总执行长拿督李典和深信，坐落于森美兰Sri Sendayan镇主要商业区的Sendayan Metropark，将崛起为兴旺的商业区。

金群利集团共发售15个单位，其中14个单位为三层店铺办公楼，另外32和4个是两层和两层半的店铺办公楼，售价介于75万8000至143万8000令吉。

除了Sendayan MetroPark，金群利集团也推出其他发展项目，如高级私人俱乐部和学校。

金群利集团发展的Matrix Global学校，是以英国寄宿学校为概念的私立国民和国际学校，采用剑桥的课程纲要。

Sendayan Techvalley有望成经济中心

另外，面积1000英亩、拥有永久地契的Sendayan Techvalley发展项目，则具备成为森美兰主要经济中心的潜能。

Sri Sendayan镇拥有一家六层楼酒店、一座五层楼回教法庭大楼、室内体育中心、油站、快餐店以及KIP Mart霸级超市。

Sri Sendayan镇竣工后，预计发展成拥有12万人口的市镇。

李典和表示：“我们将继续为消费者提供优质和可负担的住宅与商业产业，并准时移交产业。”

丽阳机构进军加影 打造Tropicana Heights

首个把度假村主题产业发展概念引入大马的丽阳机构（TROP，5401，主板产业股），将在加影打造新的发展项目，命名为Tropicana Heights。

这项发展项目地点，曾是加影山高尔夫休闲俱乐部。

毗邻于加影城，Tropicana Heights占地199英亩，绿色盎然，拥有永久地契。

其中16英亩土地被规划为中央公园，有湖泊、人行道和脚车径。

这个拥有树木林立、铺满青草的公园，会是家庭休闲、建立良好关系的好去处。

吉隆坡享高品质生活

丽阳机构董事经理拿督陈永隆表示，越来越多人选择在大吉隆坡地区内生活，以享有品质更高的生活。

“Tropicana Heights的规划经过精心设计，提高居民生活品质，加入许多绿色空间。”

首期Fairfield Residences，已接受公众登记，目前已被认购60%。占地25英亩的Fairfield Residences，有289间设计时尚的双层排屋，以及91间3层单位。

为了确保居民安全，Fairfield Residences提供24小时保安服务，也设有保安亭。

丽阳机构拥有2200英亩、发展总值超过800亿令吉的地库，今年会推介更多发展项目。

双溪毛糯 振翅起飞

雪兰莪的双溪毛糯，过去最有名的大概就是沿着大路，大大小小的花档和园艺店。

在许多人眼中，这里只是另一个发展不多、到处树林的郊区，没有多少人会想住在那里。

市场的这个观点，在2012年突然改观过来。

经过去年一连串的新宣布，双溪毛糯变成房地产的亮点。

橡胶研究院（RRI）在2012年宣布，要将面积达926公顷地段出售，并发展成一个全新城镇。

市场引颈长盼的综合城市捷运系统（MRT）终于动工，第一阶段的起点就落在双溪毛糯。

加上此计划被纳入大吉隆坡计项中，一连串的利好瞬间将市场目光吸引住。

如今，公积金子公司Kwasa置地已开始招标，该区发展已有眉目，接下来就是等待东风一起，发展和房地产一同展翅高飞。

捷运动工打造新城镇 双溪毛糯蓄势待发

当橡胶研究院（RRI）在2012年宣布，要将双溪毛糯面积达926公顷的地段用来发展新城镇后，这个原本毫不起眼的市郊，突然成了市场的讨论焦点。

同一时间，分析员纷纷探讨该区和邻近地区的房价以及房地产潜能；发展商则纷纷声称有意竞标。

各方的消息和反应，再再印证这个区会是未来的起飞焦点。

在大吉隆坡计划（Greater KL）与捷运计划下，公共交通发展成了焦点。综合城市捷运系统（MRT）第一阶段以双溪毛糯为起点，加影为终点。

捷运沿途争购土地

捷运，像是一个运财网络那样，当路线一敲定，已有不少发展商和富人在捷运沿途争购土地。

双溪毛糯作为起点以及Kwasa白沙罗（Kwasa Damansara，即橡胶研究院售给公积金局地段）的据点，更是全场焦点。

眼明手快的发展商，甚至自2012年起，陆续在周边率先推出房产项目，其他则加紧在周边增购地库。

附近较引人注目的房产项目包括吉隆甲洞（KLK，2445，主板种植股）的SeriCoalfields城镇计划、马星集团的D'saraSentral，以及雪兰莪铁船（SDRED，2224，主板产业股）的Sqwhere。

雪兰莪铁船在2012年6月时是以每平方尺500令吉，购下位于哥打白沙罗与双溪毛糯之间的4.8英亩地段。

去年4月，马星集团以每平方尺800令吉购下毗邻面积达6.6英亩的地段，相隔不到一年的时间，相关地区的土地价值涨幅已达60%。

本月中，高美达（GLOMAC，5020，主板产业股）宣布，独资子公司Elmina Equestrian Centre（马）私人有限公司，以2300万令吉向瓜雪农民组织（简称PPKKS）收购Bandar Saujana Utama附近6块地段。

收购地段总面积为25万3284平方米，用作扩大Bandar Saujana Utama。

Kwasa出售白沙罗地段

原本属于橡胶研究院的2330英亩双溪毛糯地段，在2012年时，以23亿令吉或每平方尺22.5令吉，脱售给雇员公积金局（EPF）子公司Kwasa置地私人有限公司。

这里将有2个捷运站，可说是捷运路线的重要据点，因此也被纳为“大吉隆坡”计划的项目之一。

Kwasa置地1月中公布这个命名为Kwasa白沙罗（Kwasa Damansara）的新兴城镇蓝图，并估计需时20年发展的总值高达500亿令吉。

在2330英亩土地中，Kwasa置地估计，会脱售1350英亩地段给上市公司、官联公司或发展商，进账预估为110亿令吉。

此外，该公司也会入股大部分项目，以获得更高回酬，同时确保城市设计指南的一致性。

市场相信，Kwasa置地会以“可发展”（Developable）和未开发土地（Raw Land）形式出售Kwasa白沙罗地段。

捷运必经之处 房产潜力无限

国外的例子显示，捷运经过之处，特别是设有捷运站的地区，房地产升值潜力无限。

因此，我国的捷运路线也成了发展商收购地库以及策划发展项目的指引之一。

根据第一条捷运路线规划，将贯穿吉隆坡市区，途经八打灵、吉隆坡市中心、加影共35个捷运站。

衔接双溪毛糯及加影的路线，也将人口密集的哥打白沙罗（Kota Damansara）、珍珠白沙罗镇（Mutiara Damansara）、万达市（Bandar Utama）、敦依斯迈花园（TamanTun Dr Ismail）、Bukit Damansara（武吉白沙罗）、敦胡申翁镇（Bandar Tun Hussein Onn）、蕉赖（Cheras）及无拉港（Balakong）连接起来。

这条全长达51公里的捷运网，估计将为120万居民提供公共交通服务。

Kwasa白沙罗绿色城镇

Kwasa白沙罗将兴建2万8000个住宅单位，供15万人居住，同时也将打造464万平方公尺的商用空间。

Kwasa置地董事经理莫哈末洛菲当时介绍，Kwasa白沙罗会是一个注重绿色的城镇，除了绿色建筑和社区设施，高效管制污染，确保区内舒适，同时备有24小时保安监控。

分8区分段发展整个城镇将划分成8个区，分阶段发展。有关蓝图正等待州政府评估及审批。

根据规划，这里的土地应用将有42%用作住宅，23%是基本设施，11%为商用空间，7%是综合用途。

另外，约11%或30英亩土地，将保留作绿肺（包括一个公园），6%空间保留作社区设施。

Kwasa白沙罗面积大，横跨2个市议会的管辖范围，但为了方便管理，政府已批准首2年进行的3期发展项目，将由莎阿南市议会（MBSA）所管辖。

首个项目吸引多家发展商竞标

市场人士预测，Kwasa白沙罗将分三个项目发展相关土地，第一项备受瞩目的便是名为MX-1，也就是该城镇的市中心，发展项目包括基建和首期的房地产。

MX-1吸引多家房地产发展与建筑公司竞标。

20一级发展商过关在本月3日，Kwasa置地宣布，已有20名第一级发展商通过首次征求建议书（简称RFP）的预审资格，包括马资源（MRCB，1651，主板建筑股）及马星集团（MAHSING，8583，主板产业股）等。

不过，该行认为即使通过预设资格的公司为数众多，但预计只有一或两家获选，其中一家将负责MX-1的城镇发展计划，另一家则负责当地基础设施土木工程。

至于建筑工程，估计基础设施的土木工程总值约10亿令吉，相信属总办统筹承包工程。

以公共交通建设为发展导向的MX-1计划地段，毗邻2个兴建中捷运站，估计约70%为商业单位，其余30%才是住宅。

符合预审资格的发展商（英文字母排序）

1.Bandar Utama City机构私人有限公司
2.大城市（BRDB）
3.多元重工业（DRBHCOM，1619，主板工业产品股）
4.东家（E&O，3417，主板产业股）
5.金务大（GAMUDA，5398，主板建筑股）
6.金诗投资（GOLDIS，5606，主板消费产品股）
7.国浩置地（GUOCO，1503，主板产业股）
8.IJM置地（IJMLAND，5215，主板产业股）
9.IOI产业（IOIPG，5249，主板产业股）
10.I&P集团
11.马星集团（MAHSING，8583，主板产业股）
12.马资源（MRCB，1651，主板建筑股）
13.雪兰莪发展局（PKNS）
14.布城控股私人有限公司
15.实达集团（SPSETIA，8664，主板产业股）
16.双威（SUNWAY，5211，主板产业股）
17.丽阳机构（TROP，5401，主板产业股）
18.UEM阳光（UEMS，5148，主板产业股）
19.WCT控股（WCT，9679，主板建筑股）
20.杨忠礼机构（YTL，4677，主板贸服股）

吸引更多人潮 带动周边发展

发展总值达500亿令吉的Kwasa白沙罗，会吸引更多人潮在双溪毛糯一带居住或工作，带动周边发展。

联昌国际投行研究看好这项计划在长期将提振雪州房市，并将人潮吸引至双溪毛糯一带。

这项城镇计划可推高发展商和建筑商的营业额，但庞大规模的房产供应会进一步导致房产交易放缓，从而面临更激烈的竞争。

尽管至今MX-1潜在的发展总值仍是个未知数，但联昌国际投行估计介于40亿至60亿令吉。

该行是根据每平方尺400令吉至500令吉售价推算，280万平方尺的可发展面积，加上4倍的容积率（plot ratio），预估此项目总值。

楼盘介绍

Elmina Gardens———Garinia

发展商： 森那美
种类： 双层排屋
单位面积：2379-2605平方尺
特色： 综合型城镇发展计划

作为国内大型发展商之一，森那美产业（Sime Properties）每项计划都是吸睛之作。

该公司位于双溪毛糯的City of Elmina，首期住宅单位在去年的非正式推介礼上深受欢迎，所有单位已接近售罄。

资料显示，首期非正式推介的单位包括了255间双层排屋，售价介于59万9888令吉至82万8888令吉，总值1亿8818万令吉。

这项房屋发展计划分为四种类型，分别为Garinia、Regia、Keana及Ariza。

City of Elmina的设计和规划概念以生活品质和健康平衡为主，希望为买家打造健康和宜居家园。

占地5000英亩的City of Elmina城镇计划与牙直利走廊大道毗邻，通往连接各地的新巴生河流域大道（NKVE）、吉隆坡-瓜雪高速大道（LATAR）和白沙罗—莎阿南多层次大道（DASH）也十分方便。

发展商也规划了占地300英亩的公园、全长70公里的单车车道、42公里的马拉松跑道、零售店铺及应有尽有的基建和设备。

D’Sara Sentral———D’SoVo

发展商：马星集团
种类：SoVo
单位面积：510-1000平方尺
每平方尺售价：RM650起
特色：靠近捷运站，华丽大堂方便接待客人，综合发展项目， 非常便利，参考新加坡香港发展计划

D’Residence 2
单位：247
格局（平方尺）：809、1018-及1136
每平方尺售价：RM650起
特色：特别设计的保安设施和通道，确保居民可通往公寓下的零售空间但外人不易进入，靠近捷运站

D'sara Sentral是马星集团最新的综合产业项目，坐落在捷运计划的双溪毛糯新村捷运站对面。

占地约7英亩的D'saraSentral，涵盖D'saraResidenz服务式公寓、D'Sovo精明多功能办公室（SOVO）及D'StyleShops时尚零售商业店铺。

其中，一栋式的D'Sovo备有3款，面积介于504至960平方尺。已开放登记的D'saraResidenz，共有4栋，每栋高32层，共有247个单位，也备有三种款式。

发展总值达9亿100万令吉的D'saraSentral将在今年上半年动工，预计2017年竣工。

雪兰莪铁船———SQWHERE

发展商：雪兰莪铁船
种类：SoVo
格局：549平方尺至1044平方尺
每平方尺售价：RM800起
特色：靠近捷运站

面积达4.8英亩的SQWHERE计划，发展总值达5亿令吉，发展项目包括1栋SOVO大楼、1栋服务式公寓，以及零售单位。

该发展计划的SOVO单位在去年10月推介，至于服务式公寓，则将在今年中推介，零售单位目前已获全数认购。

SQWHERE的所在地距离计划在2017年兴建的双溪毛糯甘榜巴鲁（Kg Baru）捷运站，仅有100公尺之遥，这也成为该项计划的最大卖点。

Seri Coalfields-Precinct3C-Senna2

发展商：吉隆甲洞
种类：双层排屋
格局：4房3浴室
特色：低密度永久地契且已获得分割地契

吉隆甲洞（KLK）为我国最大棕油生产业者之一，这项计划为吉隆甲洞的首项房地产发展项目，也是该公司多元化业务的策略之一。

这项为期10年的SeriCoalfields城镇计划，发展总值38亿令吉。

该项目占地1000英亩，将建设超过2000间房屋与商业房产。

SeriCoal鄄fields的另一卖点为永久地契，房屋面积较大，专为喜爱大房子以及大自然生活环境的购屋者而设。

Pressure on retail outlets, incoming space may affect tenancy and rates

The Star

Incoming supply of retail space into the Malaysian property market this year is expected to create pressure on existing outlets looking to maintain their tenancy and rental rates.

According to property consultant CH Williams Talhar & Wong Sdn Bhd, retail space is expected to increase by 6.4 million sq ft this year. “This is expected to mount significant pressure on existing shopping centres to keep tenants,” it said in its 2014 property market report.

It added that new supply this year would likely see vacancy rates rise compared with the previous year.

“Vacancy has historically hovered around 9% to 11% over the last five years and 2013 has been a stable year for retail centres in the Klang Valley. Average vacancy dropped marginally to 10% from 11.4%,” the report said.

Malaysian Association for Shopping and High-rise Complex Management past president Richard Chan said that despite the incoming supply, there would always be demand for new malls, depending on the location.
“There is always demand, but there is oversupply too. This is because while rents have hit the roof in some places, others are really struggling.”

According to the report, average prime retail rents maintained a steady growth trend with a 10% increase year-on-year in 2013 to RM22 per sq ft compared with RM20 per sq ft in 2012.

“The prospect for retail rents accretion for secondary malls, however, is coming under increasing pressure from an increasing number of incoming retail centres over the coming years.”

It said an analysis of real estate investment trust-owned malls in the Klang Valley revealed that prime shopping malls’ net yields had continued to be compressed to the 4.4% to 6.2% range while gross rents yields ranged between 6.2% and 9.4%.

“The increasing affluence of the urban population and growing middle-income population in the Klang Valley will continue to support domestic spending.

“In contrast, the rising nominal inflation and a burgeoning household debt threatens to weigh down on domestic demand.

“Retail space, especially in lifestyle malls, will become increasingly competitive as numerous new mixed-use developments have incorporated retail centres as key components and many of them are expected to enter the market in the next three to five years,” the report said.

3因素推升大马房价

与全球金融危机前相比，房屋价格强劲增长，宏观因素如低利率、强大的资金流量，以及融资成本廉宜是主要因素。

另外，大马的家庭大约有690万个，截至2013年第二季，大马房產供应约467万个，佔家庭总数的68%。

监督投机‧国行：房价短期难回调

国家银行表示，去年產业交易量大减，但是房价仍然居高不下，国行將紧密监督，並认为短期內主要城市的房价要回到可负担水平仍是一大挑战。

多房贷者增长急减至3%

同时，国行祭出的措施已令持有多项房贷者的成长率从15.8%遽减至3%，而84%房屋贷款者只有一项房贷户头，显示透过申请多项房贷来投机的活动受抑制，令银行在房价调整时的贷款违约风险也隨之降低。

国行在年报中指出，基於更高屋价对整体家债带来的效应以及金融机构都涉及產业市场，必须继续紧密监督保持在高水平的屋价。任何屋价的重大调整將增加金融机构的资產负债表的压力。

金融机构涉及產业领域（主要为直接借贷给產业发展商和购屋者，其余包括持有產业相关公司的债券和投资於產业）的程度扩大14.3%至5千535亿令吉，或佔金融体系资產的21.9%。其中银行体系合计涉及產业市场的程度共增加14.7%至5千262亿令吉，佔总资產的25.4%。其中约65%包含购买住宅的贷款，约29%为供收购非住宅產业，供建筑和產业发展的营运资本和过渡性贷款佔4%。

去年上半年的低住宅產业交易量对屋价影响轻微。大马房价指数（MHPI）微升，而主要城市的房价继续高企。上半年住宅交易量下跌12.6%，购屋者和投资者退居场外等待大选尘埃落定，交易值则微升1.1%。所有產业类別的价格全面上涨，独立式和高楼產业涨势最强。

高档產业涨最猛

数项因素令房贷面对的潜在屋价调整风险减轻，包括由借贷来融资的投机购屋活动並不显著，根据国行的监察，没有强烈跡象显示在房价上涨之际，购屋者进行更多借贷（透过再融资）来增加其贷款槓杆比以作为消费用途。

去年贷款偿还率保持成长6.7%（2012年为增6.5%）就可作为支持此论点。国行的可负担能力新措施进一步確保新贷款是根据家庭收入而非產业价值上涨。

银行供购买非住宅產业的融资在去年放缓至17.7%（2012年为成长19.4%），购买店屋的融资增加17.3%（2012年为增16.1%），佔总贷款的5%，而购买土地及办公空间的融资分別放缓至15.7%和15.2%（在2012年为分別成长17.7%及37.6%），佔银行总款贷的2.7%和1.9%。

办公楼领域整体空置率保持在17.1%的高水平，在未来数年將有更多办公楼供应之下，预料空置率將进一步升高，而购物广场的空置率也在上升中，2010至2013年期间平均为20.2%，因过去数年有许多新供应流入市场。儘管空置率偏高，良好管理和人潮多的购物商场仍有高需求，出租金继续高涨。

Occupancy rate fell to 70%-80% after Petronas Twin Towers was built

Exactly one year after property consultancy Jones Lang Wootton (JLW) drew attention to the Klang Valley office market’s 100 million sq ft milestone, opposing views are brewing whether the numbers are as frightening as made out to be.

Earlier this week, property consultancy CH Williams Talhar & Wong said although the Klang Valley office market might have an oversupply of office space on plan, the situation is controllable.

Said its managing director Foo Gee Jen: “The developers or owners can slow down or pause, which they did last year.”

Zerin Properties CEO Previndran Singhe says the situation is not dire. Supply is not all coming “at one go” and there is still a healthy take-up rate.

Occupancy is about 80% currently, he says. Assuming 2014 supply comes in and this space is not filled, occupancy will drop to 78.57%. For 2015, it will be 75.86% and 2016 it will be 73.82% (assuming no take-up of this space). This is not detrimental to the market. “Things go south when occupancies are way below 60%,” he says.

“Moreover, there is a strong trend of newer office buildings being filled up at the expense of older ones, and the older ones are being rejuvenated into boutique hotels,” says Previn.

While there is no reason to pit one view against another, the Klang Valley office situation underscores the differing yardsticks and benchmarks.

JLW, which first highlighted the situation, defines office stock as purpose-built self-contained buildings above five storeys. Federal and state government office complexes solely used by the Government and older buildings where part of the space has been sold on strata are excluded from JLW’s monitored stock.

Before the Petronas Twin Towers was completed, office occupancy hovered above 90%. Occupancy hovered in the strong 70%-80% range in 1998 after its completion. This suggests the office market has not recovered fully, some say.

Does this mean we have to return to the 90% occupancy rate level before building more offices? There is “no magic number”, says Savills Rahim & Co, but constant and careful monitoring is crucial.

What is clear, says Savills Rahim, is that the office market has become increasingly fragmented with different tiers, for example Grade A and B. Opinions differ as to what constitutes a Grade A building.

“For us, new or refurbished buildings completed after 2008 is Grade A. They represent the next generation of office stock,” the statement says.

“Grade A occupancy was high at 90+% back in 2008 as a result of the decade old freeze on new office development imposed by City Hall at that time. As a result, we saw a pent-up demand for world class office space as even back then the majority of Kuala Lumpur stock was becoming obsolete.

“The new buildings completed since then are catering to this pent-up demand. For these new Grade As at least, many of them will move towards full occupancy soon,” the statement says.

The older buildings need to adapt to changing needs or risk falling behind. The key lies in redevelopment and change in land use, the statement says.

An old office building can be replaced by a new boutique hotel like the Wolo Hotel where Wisma KLIH used to be. We are already seeing old buildings such as Angkasa Raya and Kompleks Antarabangsa making way for new integrated multi-component developments, says the statement.

The National Property Information Centre (NAPIC) put the Klang Valley’s office space, excluding shopoffices, at 110.26 million sq ft as at the fourth quarter of 2013, says Khong & Jaafar group of companies managing director Elvin Fernandez.

This is “a sizeable quantity to begin with,” says Elvin. He says Singapore Business Times reported the island state has 63.6 million sq ft recently.

Of this total supply, 77.56 million sq ft is in the Federal Territory and 32.70 million sq ft outside Federal Territory. Total space occupied is 84.21 million sq ft, an occupancy rate of 75.37%, says Elvin.

“This means a sizeable amount is vacant as the net take-up is only about 2 to 3 million sq ft annually at best,” says Elvin.

By contrast, Singapore’s 10-year average net take-up is 1.5 million sq ft and its historical occupancy rate is 92% to 93%, he adds.

“Vacancies exist in mainly older buildings, many of which have still not recovered fully from the oversupply situation we found ourselves in post-Asian Financial Crisis. Anecdotal evidence suggests that even the newer ‘green’ certified buildings with MSC (multimedia super corridor) status have difficulties attracting tenants and rents are slowly slipping down,” says Elvin.

He says longer rent-free periods and landlords absorbing fit-out costs have made their way into the market, a sign of the looming over supply.

“We are also beginning to see contractual rents (as stated in agreements) and effective rents (actual rent received after deducting rent-free period and fit-out costs) widening,” Elvin says.

Pressure on rental

This means new projects will compete for tenants, which in turn will exert pressure on rent. Rental rates at RM7 to RM8 per sq ft for the Grade A office buildings are important to support values of about RM800 to RM900 per sq ft. This is the benchmark all-in replacement cost now based on the net area, says Elvin.

“If rent falls below this level, it means values will slip below replacement cost. This is unhealthy,” he says.

Such a situation happened post-Asian Financial Crisis and the market did not recover until seven to eight years later. To avoid a recurrence, there is a need to assess a project’s viability in a more robust manner and subject it to stricter, more in-depth, independent market and feasibility studies and other financial tests before funding is approved and drawn down.

This will sift through what is needed and what is not, says Elvin.

Savills Rahim says they expect city centre effective rent, where most of the new Grade A supply has already been completed, to consolidate.

“We expect rent to creep up next year as new buildings fill up and pressure eases off generous rental incentives,” Savills Rahim says.

Barring any major unforeseen events, they expect rent and occupancy to move up by 2017 as supply of quality office space tightens again. In the area immediately surrounding the Kuala Lumpur City Centre, the current supply under construction would be completed but demand by oil and gas and financial services sector will only increase with an expanding economy.

The “flight to quality” will mean good times for the Grade A office sector, Savills Rahim says.

Mega projects

As for the government-driven projects, Savills Rahim say joint ventures with private sector ensure they remain market driven.

These projects have a five to 10 year horizon, enough time to meet new challenges and demands of the next cycle. However, it is crucial developers monitor and implement their development according to market fundamentals, says Savills Rahim.

Elvin from Khong & Jaafar focuses on the incoming supply (buildings presently under construction) of 17.93 million sq ft. This excludes “planned” space which will come from the mega projects and for which development orders have not been secured as yet.

“This is a substantial amount of space in the making in the years ahead,” says Elvin.

Previn believes the tipping point will be the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore high-speed rail.

“We will not reach high 90s (occupancy rate) in the short term. In the long term, with all infrastructure including double tracking and City Hall pushing Kuala Lumpur towards a world class city, I do see this happening,” he says.