3因素推升大马房价

与全球金融危机前相比，房屋价格强劲增长，宏观因素如低利率、强大的资金流量，以及融资成本廉宜是主要因素。

另外，大马的家庭大约有690万个，截至2013年第二季，大马房產供应约467万个，佔家庭总数的68%。

监督投机‧国行：房价短期难回调

国家银行表示，去年產业交易量大减，但是房价仍然居高不下，国行將紧密监督，並认为短期內主要城市的房价要回到可负担水平仍是一大挑战。

多房贷者增长急减至3%

同时，国行祭出的措施已令持有多项房贷者的成长率从15.8%遽减至3%，而84%房屋贷款者只有一项房贷户头，显示透过申请多项房贷来投机的活动受抑制，令银行在房价调整时的贷款违约风险也隨之降低。

国行在年报中指出，基於更高屋价对整体家债带来的效应以及金融机构都涉及產业市场，必须继续紧密监督保持在高水平的屋价。任何屋价的重大调整將增加金融机构的资產负债表的压力。

金融机构涉及產业领域（主要为直接借贷给產业发展商和购屋者，其余包括持有產业相关公司的债券和投资於產业）的程度扩大14.3%至5千535亿令吉，或佔金融体系资產的21.9%。其中银行体系合计涉及產业市场的程度共增加14.7%至5千262亿令吉，佔总资產的25.4%。其中约65%包含购买住宅的贷款，约29%为供收购非住宅產业，供建筑和產业发展的营运资本和过渡性贷款佔4%。

去年上半年的低住宅產业交易量对屋价影响轻微。大马房价指数（MHPI）微升，而主要城市的房价继续高企。上半年住宅交易量下跌12.6%，购屋者和投资者退居场外等待大选尘埃落定，交易值则微升1.1%。所有產业类別的价格全面上涨，独立式和高楼產业涨势最强。

高档產业涨最猛

数项因素令房贷面对的潜在屋价调整风险减轻，包括由借贷来融资的投机购屋活动並不显著，根据国行的监察，没有强烈跡象显示在房价上涨之际，购屋者进行更多借贷（透过再融资）来增加其贷款槓杆比以作为消费用途。

去年贷款偿还率保持成长6.7%（2012年为增6.5%）就可作为支持此论点。国行的可负担能力新措施进一步確保新贷款是根据家庭收入而非產业价值上涨。

银行供购买非住宅產业的融资在去年放缓至17.7%（2012年为成长19.4%），购买店屋的融资增加17.3%（2012年为增16.1%），佔总贷款的5%，而购买土地及办公空间的融资分別放缓至15.7%和15.2%（在2012年为分別成长17.7%及37.6%），佔银行总款贷的2.7%和1.9%。

办公楼领域整体空置率保持在17.1%的高水平，在未来数年將有更多办公楼供应之下，预料空置率將进一步升高，而购物广场的空置率也在上升中，2010至2013年期间平均为20.2%，因过去数年有许多新供应流入市场。儘管空置率偏高，良好管理和人潮多的购物商场仍有高需求，出租金继续高涨。

交投放緩‧今年房價不降

WTW產业顾问表示，房產成交量或因市场趋於谨慎而放缓，但预料房產价格不会再在今年下降。

等待房產价格在今年放缓的买家恐怕要失望，因该公司董事经理符儒仁认为，房產价格下降的情况是完全不会发生的。

“即將在2015年实施的消费税將扶持房產需求，同时儘管政府表示住宅產业是零消费税，但系统的灰色地带可使供应商將原料的税务负担转嫁消费者身上，使房產价格居高不下。”

惟他也坦言，房產成交量方面则可能滑落，因市场情绪趋於谨慎。

豪宅需求受影响

大马稳健的经济成长，低失业率和隔夜利率继续扶持產业市场，惟他在媒体匯报回会上指出，相较政府推出的打房措施，国家银行收紧贷款条件会对產业市场造成更大的破坏力。

“然而，这主要影响豪华住宅市场，但不会影响有地住宅產业，因土地稀少促使该市场继续成长。”

政府打房
正確举措

他指政府所推出的打房措施是正確的政策，儘管这会对產业市场带来短暂的衝击，但可以克制投机风气，使房產价格恢復稳定和更符合实际。

“在打房措施下，房產投机者將更加谨慎，虽然不至於杜绝投机风气，但若要投机，则需要更雄厚的財务实力，惟该措施却不会影响首次购屋者和长期投资者。”

此外，政府积极推出“人民房屋”將使房產市场的竞爭升温，惟他乐见其成，因他不希望看见房產市场以20%的速度增长但却是不可持续性的，並引发政府实施更多打房措施。

10%为健康的增长率

他认为，10%是较为健康的增长率，並预期今年房產市场能以该速度增长。

整体而言，他表示，房產投资在今年仍会是相对受欢迎的投资选项，因被证明为良好的抗衡通货膨胀工具；同时，殷实需求將在今年主导市场，可负担房屋需求也会走高，而强劲的人口增长也续扶持住宅產业需求。

有地及工业產业受落

个別產业市场展望方面，符儒仁表示，各產业的供应量將从去年较为淡静的情况中回扬，同时，有地房產和工业產业市场的表现將跑贏其他產业，因需求持续旺盛；惟办公楼、零售商业中心和酒店產业的收益率或继续受压。

有地房產供应不足

他指出，吉隆坡的有地房產的需求持续旺盛，预计价格启动稳定於每单位70万令吉以上，主要因为发展商在过去2年都致力於发展公寓计划，导致可负担的有地房產供需失衡。

“吉隆坡的有地產业几乎全面佔用，隨著国內人口持续增长並组织家庭，且现时代的家庭规模更小，推动房產的需求量走高。”

相对的，公寓產业却供应过剩，他预料公寓產业的销售或面临调整；惟长期以来遭发展商忽略的工业產业价格也料因供应短缺而飆升。

发展商放缓推办公楼

至於市场一直颇为担心的办公楼过剩问题，他表示，多数的发展商已经一致地放缓推出办公楼计划，然而，鉴於建筑成本走高超过5%，快於租金的上扬情况，他预见该產业的收益率將续受压。

去年的零售商场的供应量也同样走跌，仅成长0.5%，他解释，这主要因为巴生河流域有3座主要的购物中心暂停营业以进行装修工作所致，预期今年的供应量將从去年的90万平方呎回扬至592万3千平方呎，共有13座新购物中心推出。

MH370影响
酒店入住率料减

另一方面，符儒仁提及，马航MH370失踪事件可能影响中国游客前来旅行的情绪，並影响吉隆坡酒店的入住率。

他表示，前来吉隆坡旅游的游客大部份是中国游客，马航客机失踪事件可能影响中国游客的情绪，进而打击酒店的入住率。

此外，他直言，儘管大马旅游年已连续进行2年，但去年前来吉隆坡旅游的海外游客仅成长3%，所幸的是，国內旅客前来吉隆坡旅游的数量却增长26%，抵销了该衝击。

“我们预计酒店的收费也会受压力，因新业者持续加入发展酒店压抑了其他业者调整价格的空间，目前吉隆坡酒店的收费是区域內最低。

House prices expected to stabilise as a result of measures

Property professionals, especially developers, continue to grumble about the challenging first six months of this year as a result of various government and banking measures kicking in with some developers delaying launches to the second half of the year.

A survey by the Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association (Rehda) reveals that 87% of 150 respondents are “pessimistic or neutral” about the first half of the year.

While the situation may indeed be in a flux for some developers, especially the smaller ones as buyers turn cautious, all is not lost when one considers the big picture.

In an earlier seminar on the property sector, Valuation and Property Services Department deputy director-general Faizan Abdul Rahman said house prices were expected to stabilise as a result of these measures. He was speaking at the 7th Malaysian Property Summmit 2014 organised by the Association of Valuers, Property Managers, Estate Agents and Property Consultants in the Private Sector Malaysia late last month.

The distress among developers is understandable. Because of Malaysians’ general interest in this sub-segment, developers have focused on meeting this demand over the years. This focus on the residential market escalated considerably between 2010 and 2013, accounting for multiple launches among developers.

Faizan said residentials formed the bulk of transactions for the first nine months of last year, or 64% of about 280,000 transactions. In terms of value, it accounted for RM51.51bil of total value amounting to RM105.7bil, or 49%.

Faizan said the residential sub-segment would continue to drive the market in the months ahead with prices moving on a more even and moderate keel.

One of the speakers, property consultancy C H Williams Talhar & Wong managing director Foo Gee Jen said that looking ahead, property investment would continue to be relatively more popular than other forms of investments with rising demand for affordable housing.

“Genuine demand will lead the market. There will be no more double-digit price increases,” he said.

Analysing prices for the first nine months of 2013, Foo said serviced apartments had the highest price on a per square foot basis at RM609 per sq ft while terraced housing were the lowest, at RM327 per sq ft.

“In the landed segment, he said most prices had doubled over the years. Bandar Utama’s double storey housing was priced at RM280 per sq ft in 2005. It was RM620 per sq ft in 2013. The overall landed sector had average percentage increase of 8% between 2005 and 2010 but hit 18% a year for three consecutive years between 2011 and 2013.”

He came to this conclusion after analysing prices in Taman Tun Dr Ismail, Bandar Utama, Bukit Jelutong, Kota Kemuning and Bandar Kinrara.

Foo said gated and guarded housing experienced the greatest increase, averaging 10% between 2005 and 2012 with selected developments having a higher annual appreciation of 14.4%. Detached houses had the highest return at 27.2% per annum followed by semi-detached houses at 17.3%.

“Gated and guarded housing was introduced into the Malaysian market more than 10 years ago. In 2013, this segment outperformed the rest of the other types of housing. In 2005, a detached house in a gated and guarded community was RM600 per sq ft (2013: RM1,200 per sq ft), a semi-detached house was RM400 per sq ft in 2005, doubling to RM975 per sq ft last year,” he added.

Terraced housing averaged RM480 per sq ft in 2005 and increased to RM600 per sq ft last year, he said.

As for the condominium market, Foo said total stock had grown considerably over the years and as at 2013, there was more than 355,000 units. Of this, about 27,000 units are luxury condominiums. He did not defined what he considered as a luxury condominium.

Foo said: “The supply of luxury condominiums grew at an average rate of 20% a year between 2008 and 2013 with a vacancy rate of 25%.” He cautioned that more than 32,000 units are expected by the end of this year.

“It will be a challenging market for developers in 2014. Residential property market is expected to cool down, prices stable and secondary sales slow,” he said.

The trend for developers to seek development in fringe areas continue to escalate with developers now building in areas with a radius of about 40km away from the city centre.

Mah Sing Group Bhd is building M Residences in Rawang and Southville City in Bangi. In Shah Alam, Sime Darby group is development the Elmina township and IJM Land Bhd in Bandar Rimbayu. Puchong and Semenyih have the highest concentration of new launches.

With affordability being the main issue the last few years, Foo says this is expected to change with the government’s programme on affordable housing. The government aims to build 300,000 units of affordable housing for the next five years, of 60,000 units a year.