Wednesday, May 3, 2023

后疫情最畅销二手产业 雪柔有地住宅表现看俏

展望2023年,预计二手住宅的成交量将增加,其中,雪州和槟城价格约50万令吉的高楼住宅的需求将持续上升。随着马来西亚最近宣布首购族享有印花税全免的优惠,希望购屋者能把握这项奖励,从而带动二手住宅市场的稳步发展。

根据产业网iProperty.com.my今天公布吉隆坡、雪州、槟城和柔佛州最畅销二手产业项目的数据,有关资料来自产业估价及服务局(JPPH)。

这些创下最高成交量纪录的产业项目是于2021年7月至2022年6月期间成交,并有助于人们了解我国在后疫时代,尤其经济复苏期间,消费者的购屋喜好。

在此期间,最畅销的产业都属于永久地契房屋。在二手产业市场的成交量方面,雪州和柔佛的有地住宅表现令人鼓舞,尤其是面积超过1100平方尺的房屋。

吉隆坡特定的热销产业主要座落在绿意盎然的环境,并且备有各种便利设施,这显示购屋者非常重视宜居因素。另外,柔佛的有地住宅继续在该州占主导地位。

吉隆坡最热销的有地住宅—购屋者向往座落在自然环境附近的奢华有地住宅。

1.敦依斯迈花园(排屋)
-成交量(63)
-屋价中位数150万令吉
-面积中位数1800平方尺

2.白沙罗岭或白沙罗高原(独立式洋房)
-成交量(46)
-屋价中位数500万令吉
面积中位数7782平方尺

3.大城堡(排屋)
-成交量(46)
-屋价中位数66万令吉
-面积中位数1760平方尺

4.旧巴生路华联花园(排屋)
-成交量(38)
-屋价中位数80万令吉
-面积中位数1647平方尺

5.甲洞武吉马鲁里花园(排屋)
-成交量(37)
-屋价中位数74万令吉
-面积中位数1873平方尺

吉隆坡成交量最高的两个产业项目分别座落在高档社区敦依斯迈花园(TTDI)和白沙罗高原,屋价中位数超过150万令吉,主要吸引富裕购屋者的卖点是环境翠绿,容易出入市中心。

敦依斯迈花园以63笔成交量位居榜首,这个上层和中层阶级居住的城镇,其产业多为永久地契;另外,录得49笔成交量的白沙罗高原里都是1970年代的高档独立式洋房,拥有复古的设计风格。

吉隆坡最畅销的高楼住宅 — 购屋者物色豪华和宽敞的共管公寓。

1.Seni Mont Kiara(满家乐)(共管公寓)
-成交量(33)
-屋价中位数236万5000令吉
-面积中位数2895平方尺

2.Royal Domain Sri Putramas 2(古晋路)(共管公寓)
-成交量(29)
-屋价中位数51万令吉
-面积中位数1238平方尺

3.The Estate(孟沙南城)(共管公寓)
-成交量(28)
-屋价中位数188万令吉
-面积中位数2519平方尺

4.Bukit OUG(武吉加里尔)(共管公寓)
-成交量(27)
-屋价中位数38万令吉
-面积中位数1,448平方尺

5.The Z Residence(武吉加里尔)(共管公寓)
-成交量(27)
-屋价中位数65万令吉
-面积中位数1238平方尺

在高楼住宅方面,吉隆坡的购屋者也追求奢华享受,2栋高级共管公寓即Seni Mont Kiara和孟沙南城The Estate凭借33笔成交量和29笔成交量跻身前三名。

这些公寓单位的面积都超过2000平方尺。此外,这2个永久地契产业项目其他卖点包括人口密度低、私人电梯门厅,并且还可以饱览城市美景。

雪兰莪最畅销的有地住宅 — 城郊区的排屋脱颖而出。

1.双文丹武吉圣淘沙(排屋)
-成交量(223)
-屋价中位数26万令吉
-面积中位数1170平方尺

2.巴生圣淘沙花园(排屋)
-成交量(166)
-屋价中位数39万令吉
-面积中位数1205平方尺

3.双文丹武吉布伦东(排屋)
-成交量(121)
-屋价中位数25万5000令吉
-面积中位数1195平方尺

4.加埔武吉拉惹(排屋)
-成交量(118)
-屋价中位数59万5000令吉
-面积中位数1302平方尺

5.万达镇(排屋)
-成交量(110)
-屋价中位数140万令吉
-面积中位数1647平方尺

雪州有地住宅成交量最高的5个地区皆坐落在城郊区,距离吉隆坡市中心大约35公里,此现象与混合式办公逐渐成为常态趋势一致,因为购屋者都想拥有一个面积较大的房屋。

在有地住宅类别排名前三的产业项目中,有2个坐落在乌鲁雪兰莪的双文丹,分别是录得223笔成交量的武吉圣淘沙,一个占地面积2411英亩的永久地契综合城镇。此外,在畅销排屋类别排名第二的巴生圣淘沙花园录得166笔成交量。

雪兰莪最畅销的高楼住宅 — 经济实惠和舒适的生活体验完美融合在这些高楼住宅。

1.Sg Long Residence(双溪龙 )(共管公寓)
-成交量(60)
-屋价中位数57万5900令吉
-面积中位数1410平方尺

2.Venice Hill(蕉赖)(共管公寓)
-成交量(54)
-屋价中位数28万令吉
-面积中位数1539平方尺

3.Serunai Apartment(加埔武吉拉惹)(公寓)
-成交量(52)
-屋价中位数27万令吉
-面积中位数1001平方尺

4.Mutiara Heights(加影)(共管公寓)
-成交量(38)
-屋价中位数53万令吉
-面积中位数1250平方尺

5.Palm Spring(哥打白沙罗)(共管公寓)
-成交量(35)
-屋价中位数40万令吉
-面积中位数1023平方尺

雪州城郊区经济实惠及宜居的高楼住宅深受购屋者的欢迎,录得60笔成交量的双溪龙Sg Long Residence属于永久地契产业项目。排在第2位的是位于蕉赖附近的Venice Hill,其成交量达54笔,2022年也成为最值得投资的高楼住宅和2022年上半年资本增长最高的顶尖住宅项目。

槟城最畅销的有地住宅 — 槟城成交量最高的有地住宅座落在威省。

1.Putera Villas(甲抛峇底)(联排住宅)
-成交量(57)
-屋价中位数27万5000令吉
-面积中位数1130平方尺

2.Bandar Tasek Mutiara(新邦安拔)(排屋)
-成交量(42)
-屋价中位数33万令吉
-面积中位数1302平方尺

3.Taman Widuri(双溪爪夷)(排屋)
-成交量(38)
-屋价中位数18万5000令吉
-面积中位数1195平方尺

4.Bertam Perdana( 甲抛峇底)(排屋)
-成交量(33)
-屋价中位数36万令吉
-面积中位数1540平方尺

5.Taman Merak(新邦安拔)(排屋)
-成交量(26)
-屋价中位数25万令吉
-面积中位数1001平方尺

槟城购屋者在威省倾向选择屋价低于50万令吉的产业。这些成交量显示了当地的有地住宅专为年轻的专业人士、中收入和低收入家庭而设。此外,这些产业还备有各种便利设施、交通四通八达。

槟城最畅销的高楼住宅 — 专为那些追求度假式生活的购屋者而设。

1.The Tamarind(丹绒道光)(服务式共管公寓)
-成交量(21)
-屋价中位数72万令吉
-面积中位数1047平方尺

2.Ideal Vision Park @ Tree Sparina(峇六拜)(共管公寓)
-成交量(21)
-屋价中位数58万令吉
-面积中位数1130平方尺

3.Quayside(丹绒道光)(共管公寓)
-成交量(20)
-屋价中位数195万令吉
-面积中位数2145平方尺

4.The Golden Triangle(新港)(共管公寓)
-成交量(18)
-屋价中位数50万令吉
-面积中位数1216平方尺

5.Pangsapuri Regensi Oren(北海)(公寓)
-成交量(18)
-屋价中位数59万令吉
-面积中位数1765平方尺

槟岛排名前三的高层共管公寓面向风景优美的海景,非常靠近海边。这些特点吸引了那些追求度假式生活的高收入购屋者。

柔佛最畅销有地住宅 – 新山区面积超过1300平方尺的排屋是人们首选的产业。

1.士古来大学城(排屋)
-成交量(171)
-屋价中位数30万8000令吉
-面积中位数1302平方尺

2.努沙再也依斯干达公主城武吉英达花园(排屋)
-成交量(156)
-屋价中位数58万令吉
-面积中位数1399平方尺

3.士姑来丽宁镇(Taman Mutiara Rini)T(排屋)
-成交量(111)
-屋价中位数64万5000令吉
-面积中位数1606平方尺

4.地不老实达英达(Taman Setia Indah)(排屋)
-成交量(110)
-屋价中位数50万令吉
-面积中位数1399平方尺

5.努沙再也依斯干达公主城武吉英达花园(排屋)
-成交量(99)
-屋价中位数61万令吉
-面积中位数1765平方尺

柔佛是继雪州之后,有地住宅成交量最高的州属。在5个最畅销的有地住宅开发项目中,有4个项目的成交量超过100笔。尽管疫情仍未消散,但如此高的成交量显示了购屋者愿意在发展完善的社区购买设施齐全及交通完善的房屋。

Friday, April 28, 2023

2018拍卖市场的五大重点:

#多少间房地产遭拍卖?

去年共有32,611宗拍卖案,价值约RM155.6亿。每月平均有2,717间、每日有90间房地产遭拍卖。

去年的拍卖案按年增加15.4%,拍卖房产价值按年增幅为27.6%,相较2017年的28,262宗(价值约RM122亿)。

#哪里最多拍卖案?

中马地区拍卖房地产占全马之最,累积宗数达17,212间(价值约为RM97亿),占全马拍卖房产的54%。

北马地区共有6,860宗价值约RM19亿的房地产遭拍卖;南马地区则有4,444间价值约RM23亿的房地产进入拍卖市场。

#哪一类房产最多?

遭银行拍卖的住宅房地产中超过半数(51%)为有地房产,预计价值达RM62亿。平均每月有1,180间房子造拍卖。

有地住宅中,排屋占80%,共有11,247间价值达RM34.44亿的房地产遭拍卖。

半独立洋房排名第二,去年累计1,492宗(价值约RM10.56亿)。

遭拍卖的独立式洋房累计达1,021间(价值约RM15.56亿),还有394间联排房屋,价值约RM1.51亿。

#这些拍卖房地产价值约多少?

在去年的拍卖市场中,住宅房地产宗数报27,877宗,预计价值达RM100.2亿,数量按年增加13.7%(房产价值按年扬升30.8%)。住宅房地产宗数占整体拍卖房产的85.5%。

商业房地产累计宗数达3,663宗,价值约RM40.24亿,相较2017年,拍卖案宗数按年扬升26.7%,价值则增加31.6%。

去年市场上出现1,017块价值约15.17亿的土地遭拍卖,拍卖宗数与价值按年增加24.5%以及2.4%。

#是不是有很多公寓单位遭拍卖?

共有13,723间高楼住宅单位,预计价值达RM38亿。平均来说,每个月有约1,144间高楼房产遭拍卖。


Monday, March 20, 2023

去年产业总成交额创21年新高

住宅房产销售 取得强劲增长

国家产业资讯中心(NAPIC)公布的2022年产业市场报告,捎来振奋市场的消息。去年我国的房产交易总额达1790亿7000万令吉,按年增长23.6%,房产交易量达38万9107宗,按年增长29.5%。

这么亮眼的房产交易总额,创下自2001年记录以来的最高纪录。此前的最高纪录是2014年的1610亿令吉。

2021年的房产交易总额是1448亿7000万令吉,房产交易量则是30万497宗。

根据2022年产业市场报告,住宅房产的交易量领先其他房产种类,达24万3190宗(占62.5%),交易额为942亿8000万令吉(占52.6%)。

住宅房产的销售取得强劲增长,主要由5个州属和联邦直辖区的交易带动,分别是槟城(31.1%)、柔佛(24.3%)、霹雳(18.9%)、吉隆坡(18.4%)及雪兰莪(15.9%)。

2022年,农业地交易量排第二,达8万2040宗(21.1%),依序是商用产业3万2809宗(8.4%)、发展地2万2986宗(5.9%)及工业产业8082宗(2.1%)。

虽然农业地交易量比商业单位高出两倍多,然而交易额却少于商业产业。商业产业的交易额达326亿1000万令吉(18.2%),农业地交易额则是178亿6000万令吉(10%),接着是工业产业211亿6000万令吉(11.8%),发展地131亿6000万令吉(7.4%)。


按年比较,5种类型的产业交易额都取得双位数增长。住宅产业从19万8812宗,成长22.3%至24万3190宗。商用产业从2万2428宗,提高46.3%至3万2809宗,这也是成长率最高的产业。

工业产业从5595宗,增长44.5%至8082宗。农业地从5万6730宗,提升44.6%至8万2040宗。发展地从1万6932宗,增加35.8%至2万2986宗。

新冠肺炎疫情过渡至地方流行病近一年,市场重新开放,经济活动热络、房产需求复苏等利好因素刺激下,使2022年产业领域取得辉煌交易额和成交量。然而,市场预计2023年的经济缓慢成长,房产市场的增长将保持谨慎乐观。宽松政策、政府持续扶持和执行2023年财政预算案的措施,以及第12大马计划的策略措施,都将支撑房地产增长。

Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Malaysia's overhang residential units dip below 30,000

A total of 27,746 overhang units were recorded in 2022, declining by 24.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) compared with 36,863 units in 2021.

Total overhang value also shrank 19.2% y-o-y to RM18.41 billion, from RM22.79 billion during the same period, according to the National Property Information Centre (Napic) in its Property Market Report 2022 released on Wednesday (March 15).

Malaysia’s residential property overhang units dropped below the 30,000-mark for the first time in two years in 2022 amid strong growth charts in total transaction volume and value in the property market.

A total of 27,746 overhang units were recorded in 2022, declining by 24.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) compared with 36,863 units in 2021. Total overhang value also shrank 19.2% y-o-y to RM18.41 billion, from RM22.79 billion during the same period, according to the National Property Information Centre (Napic) in its Property Market Report 2022 released on Wednesday (March 15).

2022 saw the lowest residential overhang and unsold units in the property market over the five-year period starting 2018. The previous low was in 2020, where 29,565 residential units were unsold after one year of completion, with a total value of RM18.92 billion.

Notably, the total residential overhang units in 2022 are led by those priced between RM500,000 and RM1 million at 33.6%, followed by RM300,000 to RM500,000 (at 29.3%) and below RM300,000 (at 23.5%) categories.

However, while properties priced above RM1 million only constitute 13.6% of the total overhang, the segment contributes to the highest value at RM7.5 billion or about 40.7% of the total overhang units value, according to Napic.

Johor remains the state with the largest number of overhang residential properties, with 5,285 units worth RM4.33 billion, accounting for 19.0% and 23.5% of the national volume and value respectively.

This was followed by Selangor (3,698 units worth RM3.36 billion), Pulau Pinang (3,593 units worth RM2.74 billion) and Kuala Lumpur (3,429 units worth RM3.15 billion).

Nevertheless, the overhang volume in all four states declined compared to last year, mainly due to the absorption of supplies in the affordable price bracket (RM300,000 and below), said Napic.

The residential sub-sector led the overall property market activity, having contributed 62.5% or 243,190 transactions to a total property transaction volume of 389,107 transactions posted last year. The segment also recorded a total transaction value of RM94.28 billion, accounting for 52.6% of the total property transaction value of RM179.07 billion.

Overall, the residential sub-sector recorded a y-o-y growth of 22.3% in volume and 22.6% in value, compared to a transaction volume of 198,812 worth RM76.9 billion posted in 2021.

Meanwhile, new launches for residential property stood at 54,118 units in 2022, higher than the 43,860 units recorded in 2021. Of the total new launches, 29,752 units are landed properties while the remaining 24,366 units are high-rise buildings.

Vacancy rates for office and malls decline

Occupancy rates for purpose-built office and retail spaces dropped in 2022.

Vacancies for purpose-built offices decreased slightly to 78.5% in 2022, down from 78.9% in 2021, while the shopping complex’s occupancy rate moderated to 75.4% from 76.3%.

Last year, the office market saw ten new completions offering new office space of 420,000 square metres (sq m), bringing it to a total of 24.30 million sq m.

There were another 1.53 million sq m (48 buildings) in the incoming supply and nearly 0.99 million sq m (31 buildings) in the planned supply, said Napic.

As for the retail sector, ten new shopping complexes were completed in the review period, adding nearly 264,000 sq m of retail space into the market, bringing the national total existing space to 17.51 million sq m.

There were another 40 complexes (1.38 million sq m) in the incoming supply with another nine complexes (35,000 sq m) in the planned supply.

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

2022年第三季房產市場報告

隸屬財政部的國家產業資訊中心(NAPIC)發佈《2022年第三季房產市場報告》,我國整體及各州滯銷房產都有所減少,意味供需失衡問題有所改善,而檳州依然是全馬滯銷公寓單位最多的州屬。

根據報告,我國今年首季滯銷房產為3萬5592間,第二季減至3萬4092間,第三季進一步減至2萬9534間;首季至第三季減幅17.02%。

全國首3季減幅17.02%

滯銷房產總價值方面,從首季224億4700萬令吉,減至第三季199億4961萬令吉,減幅11.13%。

以州屬來看,柔佛是今年第三季滯銷房產最多的州屬,有5348間。接著依序是檳州(5222間)、雪蘭莪(4386間)、吉隆坡(3362間)、沙巴(2645間)、霹靂(2400間)、彭亨(1197間)、砂拉越(1176間)、吉打(1133間)、森美蘭(945間)、馬六甲(597間)、登嘉樓(527間)、吉蘭丹(442間)、布城(71間)、納閩(48間)及玻璃市(35間)。

以價位段來看,100萬令吉以上的滯銷單位最多,有4464間。其他價位段則是10萬令吉以下1117間、10萬至20萬令吉2215間、20萬至30萬令吉3763間、30萬至40萬令吉4389間、40萬至50萬令吉4267間、50萬至60萬令吉3571間、60萬至70萬令吉2387間、70萬至80萬令吉1013間、80萬至90萬令吉1286間及90萬至100萬令吉1062間。

全國滯銷房產類型以公寓單位佔最多,有1萬8195間;接著是兩層至三層樓排屋(4560間)、兩層或三層樓半獨立式半獨立式房屋(1518間)及單層排屋(1206間)。

根據NAPIC給予的定義,在獲得完工及落成准證後的9個月內無法售出的產業,就會被歸類為滯銷產業(Property Overhang)。

新樓盤放緩推出

檳州是滯銷公寓單位最多的州屬,有3897間,佔全國1萬8915間滯銷公寓單位的21.9%。但相較今年首季的4344間滯銷公寓單位,檳州如今的滯銷公寓單位已有所減少。

綜合各類型房產,檳州的滯銷房產數量從今年首季5816間、第二季減至5508間、到第三季進一步減至5222間。發展商這期間普遍都放緩推出新樓盤,讓市場先消化房產庫存。

北馬另兩個州屬即吉打和玻璃市,同樣呈現滯銷房產減少的趨勢。

吉打的滯銷房產從今年首季2472間、第二季減至1971間、到第三季進一步減至1133間;在房產市場相對沒那麼活躍的玻璃市,滯銷房產從今年首季67間,在今年第三季減至35間。

第三季最貴房產交易 隆公寓單位賣944.6萬

根據NAPIC報告,我國今年第三季最貴房產交易涉及位於吉隆坡的一間公寓單位,價格達944萬6000令吉。

雪蘭莪最貴的房產交易則涉及八打靈縣一間獨立式房子,價格為680萬令吉。至於檳州最貴的房產交易則是在東北縣的一宗公寓交易,價格為200萬令吉。

另外,我國房產交易中位價今年連續三季提高,從首季29萬5000令吉、第二季32萬令吉、到第三季33萬令吉,顯示我國房產市場的購買力有回升之勢。

檳州房產交易中位價也同樣呈現上升勢頭,從首季31萬3000令吉、第二季33萬令吉、到第三季34萬5000令吉。這意味在今年第三季,檳州有一半房產交易是在34萬5000令吉以下,其餘一半交易則在這價位以上。

交易中位價(Median Price)是比起平均價(Mean Price)較適當用來衡量整體房產價格的指標,因為平均價容易受到高價房產交易拉高。

Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Property launches and sales in Peninsular Malaysia drop during 1H2022

Property developers in Peninsular Malaysia reported a 26% decline in unit launches and a 5% sales drop in the first half of 2022 (1H2022) from the second half of last year (2H2021), according to Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association.

Rehda’s survey of 150 respondents released on Wednesday (Oct 12) found that 7,843 units were launched in 1H2022, of which 45% or 3,549 units were sold in the same period.

The association’s president Datuk NK Tong, who presented the data, said sales performance has trended downwards because 50% or 5,303 units were sold in 2H2021 from the 10,665 launched units during then.

The majority of launches in 1H2022 were residential properties at 94% or 7,287 units. Commercial properties made up the remaining 6%, Tong said.

The most launched property type in 1H2022 are two- to three-storey terraced houses at 3,884 units, followed by serviced apartments (1,783 units) and single-storey terrace houses (495 units), he said.

The most sold property type in 1H2022 is also the two- to three-storey terraced houses (2,365 units), with most of them located in Seremban, Negeri Sembilan and Jasin, Melaka.

Trailing at a distance in sales are commercial units at 367 units and single-storey terrace houses at 331 units.

First-time homebuyers made up almost half of property buyers in 1H2022 at 42%, followed by upgraders at 36% and investors at 21%, Tong said.

The top purposes for bought units are for self-dwelling (46%) or for family members (29%).

Most of the residential launches in 1H2022 were priced at RM250,001 to RM500,000 (53%), while most of the unsold units were priced at RM500,001 to RM600,000 (29%).

The top reasons for unsold units are end-financing loan rejections, unreleased Bumiputera lots and either high pricing or low demand.

Many developers also struggled with financing issues (87%) in 1H2022, of which 78% of respondents faced end-financing issues for buyers and 13% faced bridging financing issues.

In terms of business operations for developers, the overall cost of doing business has increased an average of 17% in 1H2022.

He pointed out that at least 24% indicated that they are “highly affected” or “severely affected” by the current economic scenario.

Respondents said the top cost components affecting cash flow in 1H2022 are material and labour cost, compliance cost and land cost, Tong shared.

Monday, May 2, 2022

可负担屋 严重滞销

国内整体产业领域在2021年第四季总成交量达9万9462宗,比起上一季激增62.3%。

住宅产业的交易量高占整体产业总成交量66.2%,是众产业次领域当中最为活跃的一个。

整体产业总成交值则录得468亿5000万令吉,比起上季的总额激增高达30.1%。显而易见的是,我国产业领域在整体上有着非常显著的复苏迹象。

雪州住宅滞销创新高

截至去年第四季,我国仍有3万6893住宅单位滞销,涉及总值227亿9000万令吉。

雪兰莪州去年第四季住宅单位滞销数量创下6095单位的新高,超越了之前一直是全国滞销最严重的柔佛州,成为全国住宅产业滞销最多的州属。

整体而言,柔佛在这季滞销住宅达6089单位,上一季的6509单位仍是有过之而不及。

其他住宅滞销的州属,包括槟州5493单位、吉隆坡3908单位、沙巴州2933单位,以及霹雳2748单位等。

吉隆坡滞销改善

从过去几季报告观察中,吉隆坡的住宅滞销情况已大幅度改善。随着国门今年4月1日全面重开,吉隆坡的住宅产业今年有望吐气扬眉。

雪州滞销住宅从上一季的3376单位激增至6095单位,增幅高达80.5%。从这些种种迹象看来,我国发展商在对房市复苏之路的信心满满,与房产投资者的持续观望看似却大相径庭。

越来越多百万豪宅卖不出

另一边厢,售价介于100万令吉的滞销住宅从去年第三季的3748单位增至4653单位,增幅24.1%,而在总值方面则从79亿增至92亿2000万令吉。

同时,售价介于50万至100万令吉的住宅滞销数量最多,达1万1139单位。

无论如何,随着我国已步入后疫情时代,100万令吉住宅滞销情况将在今年改善,主要是海外高端人士有望再次到我国进行投资置业。

可负担屋竟占三成

始料不及的是,去年末季的滞销住宅单位当中,售价低于30万的住宅单位竟占了31.5%。

然而,像这一类可负担房屋的严重滞销情况是前所未有,这也是在过去8年来的产业评论中未曾看过的。

难以想象的是,这类房屋滞销数量从7743单位飙升至1万1610单位,涉及总值21亿8000万令吉。

供过于求?

整体上,售价低于30万的滞销住宅单位从第三季到第四季竟暴增了49.9%,情况的确是令人感到担忧,毕竟过去几年,我国政府一直主打可负担房屋政策,除了之前拥屋计划(Home Ownership Campaign,简称HOC)的10%折扣优惠(直到2021年底),还有印花税减免等种种刺激房产销售措施。

然而,如今这类售价低于30万的住宅单位严重滞销,显而易见的是,可负担房屋在我国已严重供过于求。

有鉴于此,政府应重新检讨可负担房屋政策,包括是否必要兴建更多可负担房屋,抑或是探讨新方案,以刺激可负担房屋的销量。

Friday, April 29, 2022

Large supply of prime high-rise residential units expected for 2022 - JLL


An influx of prime high-rise residential properties is expected in 2022, adding further pressure on capital values, according to JLL Property Services (M) Sdn Bhd as reported by The Sun Daily on Apr 27.

The daily quoted researcher and consultant Eva Soo, who during a webinar at the JLL Q1'22 Real Estate Market Perspective said that the incoming large supply is mainly due to delays in completion over the past two years due to the economic restrictions brought on by the pandemic.

She added that this will lead to an increase in unsold properties over the next few years before the market adjusts itself. However, the present all-time-low interest rate of 1.75% would encourage investors to return to the market.

The capital value stood at RM953 psf as of Q1 2022, while the average asking rent at RM2.95 psf per month.

According to JLL Greater Kuala Lumpur property market monitor Q1’22 report, residential capital value growth declined 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and average rent declined 2.3% q-o-q.

The market yield was at 3.02%, generally lower than other asset classes.

Prime high rise residential stock in Greater KL, covering KL City and extending towards Mont'Kiara, Damansara Heights, Bangsar, and Mid Valley was 51,000 units.

Additionally, the overall unsold rate is still considered quite healthy at 3.55%, said Soo.

Meanwhile, the ending of stimulus packages such as the Home Ownership Campaign and loan moratorium has led to a reduction in demand.

“The ending of the incentives has limit the demand for the residential market, but only for a very short term when talking about prime high rise residential,” said Soo, adding that the zerorisation of Real Property Gains Tax has encouraged many property owners to put their property on sale in the secondary market.

“As we see an increase in the primary market and at the same time, probably supply in the secondary market, capital values will likely compress quite a bit in this year," she noted.

Sunday, April 24, 2022

Softer new launches; rise in residential overhang

 Transaction volume of properties rebounded in 2021 following a contraction in 2020. Based on the National Property Information Centre’s (NAPIC) Annual Property Market Report 2021 this month, property transaction volume increased

modestly by 1.5% YoY to 300,497 units in 2021, driven by higher number of transactions in residential, commercial and industrial properties (Exhibit 2). This was 91% of the pre-pandemic level in 2019. Although this represented a moderate annual increase in transaction volume, the property transaction value in Malaysia rose to RM144.9bil in 2021, the highest level since 2017 (Exhibit 3). The stronger growth in transaction value was contributed by higher percentage of transactions in residential and industrial properties priced over RM1mil.

By state, Selangor is largest contributor to the total property market transaction volume at 20%, followed by Perak and Johor with 12% each.

 Lowest residential new launches since 2007. In 2021, Malaysia’s property market saw the lowest number of new residential unit launches at circa 44,000 units since 2007 (Exhibit 5). Developers pulled back on new launches due to a softening property market and higher unsold inventories, resulting in a 6.7% decrease in new launches compared to 2020.

On a positive note, the sales performance of new launches improved to 39% in 2021 from 29% in 2020. We expect the conservative trend of property launches to continue in FY22F as most of developers (except Mah Sing Group and Lagenda Properties) have guided prudent sales targets for FY22F which were lower than FY21 actual sales. Selangor had the highest number of new launches in the country, followed by Johor and Perak (Exhibits 6 & 7).

 New residential launches dominated by terraced houses. In terms of types of property, terraced houses (60.1%) dominated new residential launches. This was led by single-storey houses (10,667 units), followed by 2-to-3-storey terraced houses (15,705 units) and the launch of high-rise properties, mainly condominiums/apartments (12,018 units). The latter made up a share of 27.4%.

 Rising residential overhang contributed largely by high-rise properties. YoY, residential overhang rose to 24.7% to 36,863 in units and RM22.8bil (+20.5%) in value as at December 2021 (Exhibit 8). Selangor still has the largest residential overhang. This was followed by Johor, Penang and Kuala Lumpur (Exhibit 10).

In terms of the overhang by type of properties, condominium/apartment units were the highest at 20,505 (55.6% of the total) followed by terraced houses at 7,839 (21.3%).

 Selected developers fared well in the affordable segment. The affordable housing projects of Mah Sing Group (Mah Sing) and Lagenda Properties (Lagenda) have achieved good take-up rates for their recent projects due to the fact that the projects are at strategic, established and underserved locations.

 Luxury high-rise property remains a concern. The overhang status in residential properties priced between RM500K and RM1mil is concerning, accounting for a significant share of the nation’s total residential overhang in units (30%) and value (33%) (Exhibit 9), with the bulk of them in high-rise residential properties. Meanwhile, serviced apartments accounted for 73.2% of the commercial property overhang in Malaysia.

 Diversified portfolios to mitigate the impact of residential overhang which is largely made up of high-rise units. The majority of developers under our coverage (except Mah Sing and Lagenda) have more than half of their properties priced above RM500K in their portfolios. However, with a diversified portfolio and stronger focus on landed properties with prices below RM1mil, these developers are seen as able to mitigate the impact of the residential overhang which comprised largely high-rise units.

 Lower impact on landed projects in Johor from stricter Malaysia My Second Home (MMSH) programme. Generally, foreign buyers tend to purchase apartments and rarely opt for landed properties in Johor. Hence, we believe the stricter criteria for the MMSH programme and the oversupply of high-rise residential units in Johor have lower impact on Johorbased developers such as UEM Sunrise (UEMS) as the company focuses more on landed property development. UEMS’ recently launched landed properties projects in Johor (Serimbun, Aspira ParkHomes, Aspira Gardens, Senadi Hills) have been well received with take-up rates ranging between 73% and 100%.

 Marginal increase in house prices. In 2021, the Malaysian House Price Index (MHPI) rose slightly by 0.6% YoY to 201.5 points (Exhibit 11). Continuous demand for terraced houses supported the stable growth in the Terraced House Price Index of 2%, while there a slight decline in the price indices for High-Rise (-0.2%), Semi-Detached (-0.1%) and Detached (-3.3%) Houses. In 2022, we expect property prices for new projects to increase at a higher rate as some of the developers (whom we have recently met through virtual meetings) plan to pass on a portion of the cost increase of building materials to buyers in order to preserve their margins.

 We reiterate our NEUTRAL stance on the property sector. In 2023, we expect a gradual recovery in property transaction volume with improved market sentiment post-lockdowns and higher property demand following the reopening of international borders. However, we expect property developers’ operating margins to be compressed in 2022 as a result of a prolonged supply chain disruption which has led to heightened building material costs. We are also concerned on the pre-existing affordability issue in the housing market, which has intensified since the Covid outbreak as consumers’ disposable income has been impacted.

 Our top BUY is Sunway (fair value RM2.27) given the strong brand recognition established by its highly successful landmark developments and expanding healthcare business, supported by substantive unbilled sales and outstanding order book. We like Lagenda (FV RM1.90) due to its focus on underserved landed affordable housing development in second-tier states with a large population of B40 and M40 income groups. We also like Mah Sing (FV RM0.93) for its focus on affordable housing developments at strategic locations as well as its savvy execution and quick turnaround business model.


NAPIC:去年逾220亿房产滞销

大马投资银行(AmInvestment Bank)引述马来西亚国家房产资讯中心(NAPIC)数据,2021年全年有逾220亿令吉的滞销房产,比2020年冠病第一年多了将近25%!其中,又以公寓的滞销情况最为普遍,比率超过所有滞销房产的一半。

滞销房产中雪州占最多

大马投资银行指出,2021年全马共有3万6863间房产滞销,总值达22亿8000万令吉,比2020年增加24.7%,其中又以雪兰莪有最多滞销房产,接着是柔佛、槟城与吉隆坡。

在总值逾220亿令吉的滞销房产中,超过一半是公寓与组屋,滞销数量达2万505间,占所有滞销房地产的55.6%,接著是排屋有7389间,占21.3%。

至于房价方面,该银行指50万至100万令吉的滞销房产已经达到令人担忧的情况,约占滞销房产的30%,其中又以高端房产占最大宗。

“另外,服务式公寓的滞销情况也相当严重,占了73.2%滞销房产比率。”

大马在2021全年仅进行了约4万4000间房产交易,是2007年以来最低的纪录。

由于市场买气低靡,因此发展商纷纷推迟新房产计划,导致去年全年的新房产项目,比2020年减少6.7%,不过新房产的买气却比2020年的29%更高,达39%。