Tuesday, December 14, 2021

逾七成滞销单位售价逾30万 可负担房屋也过剩

我国今年第4季的房地产销售虽略有反弹,但滞销问题未解,国内仍有总值近200亿令吉的竣工单位未售出,当中超过有三分之二的售价在30万令吉以上,反映国内可负担房产也出现供应过剩的问题。

根据国家房地产资讯中心(NAPIC)数据,今年第3季,共有3万290间,总值197亿5000万令吉的竣工房屋未售出,而柔佛州(占24%)比例最高,其次是吉隆坡(20%)和雪州(18%)。

“马新社”报导,按房产类型划分,未售出的单位中有三分之二(73%)以上是高层房产,如公寓、共管公寓和服务式公寓。

NAPIC指出,根据其收集的数据,70%以上的未售出房产价值都超过30万令吉,正好是可负担房屋的正常水平,意味着该类型房产过剩。

消费者或搁置买房

国行也曾警告,我国未售出的房产数量仍将增加。这主要包括服务式公寓、小型办公家居单位(SOHO),以及地点不佳且价格在50万令吉以上的房产。滞销问题未解,加上生活成本日增,可能导致消费者搁置买房计划。

马来西亚房地产发展商公会(REHDA)指出,今年的房产行业复苏仍然不平衡,业界没能幸免于各种抗疫管制措施下的螺旋形效应。

该公会指出,在房产业即将重返复苏势头时,我国在6月1日实施为期3个多月的全面大封锁,使局势恶化。包括建筑活动和销售展厅在内的许多商业运营被迫再次停止营运,阻碍了行业及参与者的增长。

该公会指出,尽管全面大封锁于10月结束后,商业活动有所好转,但整体市场情绪依然低迷。

国人仍陷后疫情困境

虽然国内就业机会开始回升,明年工资料将有所增加,但大多数国人仍面临着疫情后遗症的艰难时期。

房地产发展商公会指出,去年疫情爆发时,一些房主因收入减少,不得不抛售房屋并缩小规模,导致今年新房和转租房的需求都受到压制。”

由于疫情继续拖延边境开放,特别是随着变种毒株奥密克戎(Omicron)的出现,航空和服务业人员仍处于困境。一些处于减薪状态的人,因生活成本不断增加,无法负担买房,因而取消买房订单。

随着储蓄的减少,以及雇员公积金局的储蓄所剩无几,商品价格的上涨让普罗大众水深火热,尤其是生活在大城市的中等收入群体,使他们短期内的拥屋愿望仍遥不可及。

Saturday, December 11, 2021

Somerset Puteri Harbour investors frustrated with returns

This article is worth to read though it was written in 2018. 

There are some lessons to learn on property investment with GRR.

With the two-year guaranteed rental returns having expired in February 2017, investors in the Iskandar Malaysia project say their returns are now close to zero. Their plight highlights some of the real risks of investing overseas, even if it is just across the Causeway.

Singaporean Victor Ng remembers the first time he cast his eyes on a potential investment in Iskandar Malaysia: It was Somerset Puteri Harbour in Iskandar Puteri (formerly known as Nusajaya) at a weekend preview in early February 2012. It was not an impulse purchase, he says. Before the purchase, he had visited the site and other projects launched in the area. “I felt that Puteri Harbour was an up-and-coming area,” Ng tells EdgeProp Singapore in a recent interview.

About 120 out of 132 units offered for sale under a sale-and-leaseback scheme were snapped up at roadshows in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur over a fortnight, according to a report by The Edge Financial Daily in Feb 24, 2012. The rest were purchased after that. A majority of the buyers (about 80%) were said to be Singaporeans.

Somerset Puteri Harbour is a 204-unit serviced apartment project located on the waterfront at Puteri Harbour in Iskandar Malaysia. Units ranged from studios, and one- to three-bedroom apartments measuring 762 to 1,496 sq ft, to penthouses from 3,650 sq ft. Prices of units sold ranged from RM720,000 to RM4.5 million, or an average of RM900 psf. Upon completion, these apartments would be managed by The Ascott — the serviced residence arm of Singapore-listed CapitaLand — for the first 10 years. Under the leaseback agreement, investors were offered a guaranteed rental return (GRR) of 5% for the first two years after completion.

Ng paid RM982,669 for a 1,178 sq ft, two-bedroom serviced apartment at Somerset Puteri Harbour, which he purchased off-plan. Another investor who purchased a unit at launch was Singaporean Peter Lim. “I was attracted by the Somerset brand and the reputation of the developer, UMLand [United Malayan Land], he adds. “I also liked the harbourfront locale, which is very niche, and very scarce.”

Somerset is one of the brands under Ascott Ltd, the serviced residence arm of Singapore-listed property group, CapitaLand. Ascott has a third-party management contract with UMLand to manage the operations of Somerset Puteri Harbour. “For third-party management contracts, our scope is confined to managing the operations of the properties on behalf of the property developers,” says an Ascott spokesperson in an email response.

Other than the 132 units offered for sale and leaseback, another 72 units facing the marina at Somerset Puteri Harbour were sold as condominium units without a leaseback agreement. The project was marketed by Nusajaya Consolidated, a 50:50 joint venture between UMLand and UEM Sunrise. Clear Dynamic is a subsidiary of Nusajaya Consolidated, and was set up for the purpose of the leaseback administration. Many of the buyers of Somerset Puteri Harbour purchased their units from marketing agent Norman Sia of NS Global, which has since closed its Singapore office.

Back then, many of the investors of Somerset Puteri Harbour went to NS Global’s office in Singapore to sign the sale-and-purchase agreement. It was only when they did so that they were given the leaseback agreement to sign as well. “There were three big chunks of documents,” says Ng. “Obviously, we didn’t have time to run through the entire three sets of documentation there and then. It caught us by surprise and we didn’t want to risk losing our option money.”

Puteri Harbour full of promise then

In hindsight, 2012/13 was the peak of the property market in Iskandar Malaysia. Puteri Harbour was perceived to hold the most promise: Positioned as an integrated waterfront and marina development by master developer UEM Sunrise, it spans 688 acres (275ha) in the 24,000 Nusajaya precinct, which has since been renamed Iskandar Puteri.

Puteri Harbour appealed to many Singaporean investors and developers then, as it was a waterfront residential enclave that has many of the attributes of Sentosa Cove, but at a fraction of the land and property prices. The properties there are freehold, unlike those in Sentosa Cove, which are 99-year leasehold.

The location of Somerset Puteri Harbour is ideal, as it is just a stone’s throw away from Legoland and an indoor theme park featuring popular children’s cartoon characters such as Hello Kitty, Thomas and Friends, Barney and Bob the Builder. It is within a 20-minute drive of the Second Link and a 25-minute drive of Johor’s Senai International Airport.

“Puteri Harbour was meant to be an area of intense development and strong growth,” says Dennis Ng, group managing director of UMLand. “We believe the Puteri Harbour area will continue to improve as more residents move in. With the availability of Grade-A office space and other facilities in Medini, which is just a 10-minute drive away, more businesses will also move there.”

Banking on RTS Link

From 2011 to 2013, there was a lot of excitement about greater connectivity between Singapore and Malaysia. For instance, the Singapore- Johor Baru Rapid Transit System (RTS Link) was announced in 2010 and, in January this year, Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong witnessed the signing of a legally binding bilateral agreement for the RTS Link, together with then Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak at the Istana.

The Singapore terminus for the RTS Link is to be located at Woodlands North station on the Thomson-East Coast Line, while the Johor Baru terminus will be at Bukit Chagar near JB Sentral, connecting with the Keretapi Tanah Melayu (KTM) station. The RTS Link is expected to ease congestion at the Causeway by 15%.

“To me, the biggest change is the RTS Link, which will reduce congestion in the two existing areas — the Causeway and Second Link,” says UMLand’s Ng. “The dream of living in Iskandar and working in Singapore is viable again. There are a lot of residents who moved in because of the schools, but you still need businesses and supporting facilities to come in before more people move in.”

In 2013, the buzz was the high-speed rail (HSR) between Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, which would offer a 90-minute travelling time. The designated Singapore terminus for the HSR was in Jurong East. Another proposal to ease traffic congestion was a ferry service from Singapore’s HarbourFront Centre to Puteri Harbour, where there are already customs checkpoints in place. However, the HSR has since been deferred and the ferry service, a moot point.

Ups and downs

Somerset Puteri Harbour rode the ups and downs in Iskandar Malaysia. The project was completed in November 2014, more than a year after the scheduled completion in 2013. The GRR commenced in March 2015. Typically, hotels take two to three years for their operations to stabilise. The GRR was designed “to help smooth out the cash flow during the initial years”, adds UMLand’s Ng.

During the two-year GRR period, the 5% returns were promptly paid. For a typical unit, it was RM7,552 bimonthly, or RM3,776 a month. The last payment of RM7,552 was received in January 2017 for December and January.

When the GRR period ended in February 2017, the investors did not hear from Clear Dynamic or UM Land. “For the first six months after the GRR, they just stopped paying us, but they didn’t tell us why,” says Simon Poh, one of the investors who spoke to EdgeProp Singapore. “They just didn’t communicate with us. We were left in the cold as to what was happening until a few of us contacted them and arranged for a meeting to find out what was going on.”

Poh and a business partner had made a joint purchase of a one-bedroom unit at Somerset Puteri Harbour for about RM906,000. “It’s been one year and nine months since the end of the GRR period,” he says.

A summary of bimonthly net rent paid to an owner over the 18-month period from March/ April 2017 to July/August 2018 came to a total of RM8,472.87 received. Based on the purchase price of the unit of RM982,669, the annualised return over one year is 0.57%.

On months when the rents are negative, the losses accrued are deferred to the future when profits are made.

Investors lead the charge

Investors of Somerset Puteri Harbour who purchased units under the leaseback scheme decided to call for a meeting with representatives of UMLand, Clear Dynamic and Ascott to discuss how the returns post-GRR could be improved. The first meeting was held on July 19, 2017. A second meeting was held on Oct 24, 2017. In late December 2017, the owners set up the Leaseback Owners Committee (LOC) to liaise with representatives of UMLand and Clear Dynamic. Since February this year, a bimonthly meeting has been held at Somerset Puteri Harbour with representatives of UMLand and Clear Dynamic, along with an Ascott representative.

“I requested for that,” says one Mr Chan, an investor in Somerset Puteri Harbour. “Fortunately, the managing director of UMLand, Daniel Chan, is a forthcoming and reasonable man. At these bimonthly meetings, at least there is communication. There is usually a group of four or five of us who actively participate in these meetings.”

According to an email dated Oct 29 from Clear Dynamic to investors, Somerset Puteri Harbour had “gone through a bad time” in 1Q2018 and 2Q2018. As gross operating profits were low, not all the owners’ expenses could be covered, resulting in “no distribution” to investors.

Cumulative losses after taking into consideration owners’ expenses amounted to RM603,367.92. The losses would then be deducted progressively — at RM100,000 a month from October 2018 to June 2019, where the final deduction of RM103,367.92 would be made.

Eco-system still being fleshed out

“We are trying our best, and we have gone to the extent of subsidising the returns for now to make it easier for the investors,” says UMLand’s Ng. “Even the operating expense is advanced by us, and we won’t claim it back until times are better. We know the property could be performing better if external factors improve. Puteri Harbour is a beautifully master planned area that is still in the process of being fleshed out.”

For instance, a Khazanah-linked company owns three blocks of retail, shopping arcade and F&B space at Somerset Puteri Harbour. It has remained hoarded up. “We have been trying for years to get them to open,” says Ng.

Nearby, Pan Pacific Serviced Suites at the Puteri Cove mixed-use development is scheduled to open in 2Q2019. It will have 205 studios and one- and two-bedroom serviced suites in the third tower of Puteri Cove, developed jointly by Pacific Star Development and DB2. The Puteri Cove project also comprises two other 32-storey residential towers with a total of 658 units; four low-rise SOHO blocks; and a lifestyle retail centre fronting the marina. The two residential towers have already obtained Certificate of Completion and Compliance, and is about 80% sold.

The retail centre at Puteri Cove is expected to open in 2Q2019, with the Pasar gourmet market as an anchor tenant. The One°15 marina operator at Sentosa Cove, SUTL Group, will be opening its sales gallery for its marina operations in Puteri Harbour: the private marina in Puteri Cove and a third marina for super yachts.

Some projects in Puteri Harbour have been delayed, says Edmund Tie & Co (ET&Co) CEO Ong Choon Fah. “The postponement of the HSR project has indirectly affected some of the projects located near the proposed station in Iskandar Puteri. For now, the lack of clearer policies from the new government has left uncertainties in mega developments such as Forest City. However, properties that are located in mature areas or near public transport still offer good investment in the long term.”

Ong adds that Puteri Harbour has a great waterfront lifestyle offering for residents, complete with hotels and indoor theme parks. It is also an ideal place for families with children. “However, more needs to be done — public spaces to encourage place-making — to generate higher visitor traffic and more business for the precinct. Similar to the Business Improvement District in Singapore, a special body can be set up where owners, developers and other stakeholders work together to increase the vibrancy in Puteri Harbour.”

Competitive hospitality environment

From 2015 to 2017, the number of hotel rooms in Johor Baru grew 15% to 12,300. Most of the existing hotel supply is in the mid-scale segment with 66% share, says HVS in a report on July 3.

Based on data published by Tourism Malaysia, hotels in Johor had an average occupancy rate of 57% from January to March. Meanwhile, the occupancy rate for five-star hotels was 40% from April to June; 45% for four-star hotels; and 68% for three-star hotels, according to ET&Co.

“Some hotels do enjoy high occupancy rates during weekends, as Singaporeans always fancy a weekend getaway across the Causeway,” says Ong. “The occupancy rate is also contributed by locals who visit family or friends in Singapore but prefer to stay at hotels in Johor because of the cheaper room rates.” Location and accessibility to amenities like public transport, eateries, and shopping centres is important. For example, Amari Johor Bahru and Suasana Suites Johor Bahru enjoy good occupancy rates because they are easily accessible via public transport and surrounded by shopping malls and F&B outlets, observes Ong.

Nevertheless, with the increasing competition from Airbnb catering to large groups of family or friends, it could affect both hotel room and occupancy rates, concedes Ong. For a group of six that would like to stay in Johor Baru city centre over the weekend, Airbnb offers a list of apartments or condominiums in the range of RM200 to RM500 a night, while a serviced apartment by an operator can be priced at more than RM700 a night.

On weekdays, however, hotel occupancy rates in Puteri Harbour are a little more challenging. “The hotels and serviced apartments in Puteri Harbour also face competition from condominium owners who put their homes up for short-term stays on Airbnb and other similar platforms,” says Chee Hok Yean, regional president of HVS Asia Pacific. “For long-term stays, there’s competition from houses near the area.”

‘Reasonable returns’

GRR schemes are offered to attract investors from Singapore and other countries to help increase the take-up rate in these projects. “Few projects offering GRR have been very successful, though,” says ET&Co’s Ong (see table).

“Generally, the schemes are applicable for investment properties for recurring income such as hotel or resort properties, serviced apartments, SOHO and student accommodation.

“Cautious steps have to be taken by buyers, especially in the signing of the agreements. The sale and purchase agreement is covered by the Housing Development (Control & Licensing) Act, but the GRR schemes are not governed by the Act. There are some cases where buyers sued the developers for not giving their promised rental return.”

Peter Lim, an investor of Somerset Puteri Harbour, is well aware that such leaseback schemes have lower rental returns after the GRR period. “But I am only expecting reasonable returns, for instance, 2.5% to 3% after the initial two-year GRR period,” he says. “This is less than the 4.7% mortgage interest I’m currently servicing.”

He estimates his returns to be 0.5%, a far cry from the 5% during the GRR period. Other investors are also frustrated by the returns. As such, they have grouped together to engage law firm Shearn Delamore & Co in Malaysia to issue a letter of demand to Clear Dynamic on Oct 8. According to the letter of demand, “the rental returns after the guarantee period were unreasonably and inconceivably negligible”. The owners wanted Clear Dynamic to get Ascott to “promote and market the serviced residences and deliver reasonable returns”. They have also requested for a net return of at least 2.8% a year on their investment, stipulating that it be made within three months.

Clear Dynamic, through its lawyer Soh Hayati & Co, replied on Nov 1 that they “strongly deny” the allegations made. They also point out that the investors had agreed to accept the conditions of the S&P agreement and those spelt out in the leaseback agreement “on a willing buyer, willing seller basis”. Through its lawyer, Clear Dynamic also added that the minimum net return of 2.8% “is without any justification”, and that it is not obliged to deliver those returns within the stipulated timeframe.

The investors’ lawyer responded on Nov 12 with another letter, in which it stated that, given the returns, Clear Dynamic was “expected to review the management agreement and take necessary steps to remedy the situation, and explore the possibility of a replacement service provider if necessary”.

Beyond a brand

Many of the investors at Somerset Puteri Harbour say a major factor in their decision to purchase was the brand.

“While Somerset is a trusted and established brand, investors need to look at factors beyond that,” says ET&Co’s Ong. “These are some of the risks that investors have to consider; there’s no guarantee of profits and returns.” When buying overseas, one has to consider currency risks as well, adds Ong. “If you buy in a foreign country, you will be treated differently. When investing, you have to think of the exit strategy.”

UMLand’s Ng believes things are starting to look more positive in Iskandar Malaysia. A new attraction, Sea Life Aquarium, will open at Legoland Malaysia in Medini, which should boost tourism, he adds. Although there was a lull after the shooting of two seasons of Marco Polo, the Netflix television series, more movies and television series will be shot at Pinewood Iskandar Malaysia Studios in the coming year. “This will be positive for hotel rooms in the Puteri Harbour area, but the returns will be visible only further down the road.”

Wednesday, October 13, 2021

上半年滞销住宅 总值逾1089亿

随着我国逐步开放经济活动及准许完成两剂疫苗接种国人跨州,明年经济及房市料有望复苏,尽管如此,房产专家点出,悬而未决多年的住宅房产滞销课题仍无明显改善迹象,若计入仍在建设的未售单位,今年上半年滞销住宅单位总值超出1089亿令吉。

今年上半年的住宅房产库存有59万4165单位,服务式公寓有28万7022单位,及4万8607单位小型居家办公室(SOHO),除了这些未售单位,不包括服务式公寓及SOHO单位,尚有近43万个住宅房产单位建设中。

“综观上半年数据,高楼分层住宅产业占了30.8%或182万1176单位。若细看上半年市场推出的新项目(高楼与有地住宅)1万6660单位,仅售出24.7%或4118单位。”

根据JPPH的定义,从房产项目竣工到取得完工及落成准证(CCC),若长达9个月卖不出则被归类为滞销。他直言,国内住宅房产滞销情况堪忧,市场或者需要深入研究消费者的需求,而不能只是一味建设房屋。

“另外,吉隆坡市政局(DBKL)几年前曾冻结高楼住宅与购物中心的发展准证(development order),或许这也是能解决房产滞销的方法之一,欢迎业界人士一同探讨这个课题。”

国内高楼住宅房产滞销并非新课题,彭卡基古玛认为,监管单位必须控制新发展准证的释出。

“根据我们的数据,今年上半年的滞销住宅房产(包括服务式公寓及SOHO)有5万7154单位,总值415亿4000万令吉,而仍在建设的未售单位则有12万4306间,总值674亿令吉,总计高达18万1460单位、总值为1089亿4000万令吉。”

国内利率料持稳有助活络市场活动,而目前的房市是买家与租客的市场,要想提振国人购屋负担能力,那么家庭收入必须重新回到2019年的水平,才有可能改善这个问题。

5年后脱售房产 冀不征盈利税

“而在产业盈利税(RPGT)方面,建议政府可重新检讨,即5年后脱售房产不征税,或废除产业盈利税,改推出卖家印花税(seller stamp duty),建议税率在2至3%。”

市场需要一个“重置键”(reset button)以吸引投资者,另外一个备受市场关注的则是近来出台的大马第二家园计划(MM2H)新政策,政府应沿用先前的政策以维持这个计划的吸引力。

“除了RPGT,政府也应在2022年财政预算案延长‘拥屋计划’(HOC),并将其扩大范围至二手房屋市场,只有提振二手房屋市场才能带动新屋市场。此外,建议发展商重新拟定策略,专注市场需求而不是自身喜好,若无法做好这部份则恐进一步加剧整体房屋滞销问题。”

4利好带动 明年需求看好

纵然我国去年因疫情关系,遭遇史上第二严重的经济衰退,但经济学家认为,本地房市仍具备弹性且稳健,相信在4大利好带动下明年需求前景将趋稳。

姚金龙看好说,随着我国明年经济复苏、原产品及股市获利佳为投资者创造的财富效应、银行持续放贷,及人口和家庭增长等利好,可稳定明年的房市需求,但不可忽视可负担房屋与高档房屋的供应错置情况。

“国家银行去年1月开始降息,目前利率维持在1.75%,低息环境有助刺激房市需求,但通货膨胀预期下行,近来稍微回升的势态若能持续,则能激励市场购屋作为避险资产。”

Wednesday, October 6, 2021

承担损失 降低租金 租客难求

这个年头房东不易做!根据房产网站公司iProperty公布租房数据,今年上半年所有类型建筑的租金收益率均下跌,市场竞争大,房东有房租不出、也没有议价筹码,还需要下调租金吸引租客,有些甚至需要承担收入损失。

iProperty.com.my客户数据方案和品质部总经理普勒门德兰说,在排屋和服务式住宅需求的提振下,今年上半年全国出租房产需求呈现正增长,从去年上半年的萎缩5.6%增至1.9%。

他指出,疫情使人们偏好较大空间,因此排屋成今年上半年最受欢迎的房产类型,4个州属对排屋的需求皆上扬。

不过,尽管需求增加,但是所有物业类型的租金收益率均下跌。

隆市平均租金跌13%

他说,去年疫情支撑了租户市场,使租户拥有谈判租金的优势。此趋势延续至今年上半年,使租金要价的下降幅度高于销售要价的下降幅度,从而降低了租金收益率。

其中排屋的租金收益率从2020年上半年的3.3%下降至2.9%;共管式公寓和服务式住宅的租金收益率则分别下降了0.3%和0.2%,而公寓则保持在4.4%。

他在《iProperty.com.my 2021年上半年门户网站需求分析(住宅出租市场)》媒体简报会上说,许多房东为吸引财务稳定的租户而承担一些收入损失,包括调低房产租金迎合租户要求。

他透露,其追踪的4个州属中,有3个州属的平均租金要价下调,吉隆坡平均租金按年跌13%至2000令吉、槟城降7%(1400令吉)和柔佛跌1%(1200令吉),而雪州则保持在1500令吉。

同时,很多人持续面对财务困顿,一些房东也继续面临难以为其物业物色租户的问题。

租客首选隆市富裕市郊

iProperty指出,随着放宽封锁限制和恢复各类经济活动,吉隆坡今年上半年的出租需求按年增至2.6%(去年:-2.9%),其中白沙罗高原(Damansara Heights)富裕市郊是需求量最大的地区。多数租赁访客都在物色租金5000令吉以上(3000平方尺及以上)的别墅和半独立式洋房。

吉隆坡的其它富裕市郊例如满家乐、孟沙(Bangsar)、帝沙城市园(Desa ParkCity)、吉隆坡中环(KL Sentral)和金地花园(Sri Hartamas)的需求按年增长均超过10%,租金额度则高于吉隆坡的平均租金2000令吉。

同时,根据iProperty的数据,访客对班底谷(Pantai)租金介于2500令吉至5000令吉(1000平方尺至1500平方尺)的共管公寓和服务式住宅感兴趣。

就吉隆坡的首选物业类型而言,多数租户在物色租金介于1500令吉至2000令吉(1000平方尺至1200 平方尺)的共管公寓和服务式住宅;以及租金介于1000令吉至1500令吉(700平方尺至1000平方尺)的公寓单位。

雪州供应过剩
需求唯一下跌州属

由于供应过剩,雪州是今年上半年整体租房需求下滑的唯一大州,按年下滑1% 。根据国家房地产资讯中心(NAPIC)今年次季的数据,共管公寓和服务式住宅为雪州滞销情况最为严重的房产,分别滞销2019间和2025间。

尽管如此,得益于排屋需求按年增25.5%,雪州排屋租金保持在1700令吉,尤其是位于郊区的宽敞和平价单位。

万挠(Rawang)是雪州需求量最大的地区,按年激增57%。除了万挠,访客也关注乌鲁令岳的丹戎12(Tanjong Dua Belas)租金介于1000令吉至1500令吉(1500平方尺至2000平方尺)的排屋。

另一个越来越受欢迎的地区是实达阿南(Setia Alam),当地有几家著名手套制造厂的职员正在物色租金介于700令吉至1000令吉(700平方尺至1000平方尺)的平价高层住宅。

槟城柔佛需求渐复苏

数据显示,槟城出租房产需求逐步复苏,按年上涨1.8%(去年同期:-13.7%)。然而,由于供过于求,公寓需求量仍为负数,即为萎缩5.1% 。

国家房地产资讯中心数据显示,截至今年次季,槟城滞销单位多达4163间。

在租金方面,槟城平均租金下滑了100令吉至1400令吉。

柔佛今年上半年的出租房产需求上扬至6.6%(去年同期:-19.5%),租金平均要价下滑200令吉至1200令吉。

与槟城相似,柔佛共管公寓和服务式住宅的价格跌幅最大,下滑300令吉至1200令吉。

Thursday, September 30, 2021

交易减缓次季 滞销屋增至18.1万单位

国家银行指出,截至2021年第二季滞销的房屋增至18万1460个单位,相比去年第四季为16万7104个单位,增幅达8.59%。卖不出的主要是售价超过30万令吉的房屋,以及兴建中的服务公寓。

国家银行指出,新推出的房产计划,普遍转向价格50万令吉,或低于这个价位的房屋,这可从占今年首半年总数71.6%的较高比例反映,比2015至2019年平均水平65.9%高,这样的调整,将有助于减少供求不均衡,以及改善房产的可负担性。

根据全国产业资讯中心(NAPIC)公布的2021年上半年数据,房价的成长持平,初步估计大马房屋价格指数成长率为负0.3%。

报告指出,与2020下半年比较,2021首半年的房产交易稍缓,虽然“拥屋运动”(HOC)计划有助推高交易量,可是,为使冠病疫情降温采取的行动管制措施,冲淡了市场利好效应,特别是在第二季,冠病宗数持续上升。

尽管情景稍微偏淡,不过,交易平均价值却展现强稳步伐,特别是价格低于50万令吉的房产,占房产交易超过80%,这是相当高的数据,由于当时人们预期“拥屋运动”在2021年5月31日结束,而赶在期限之前购屋,一定程度上推高房产交易量。

拥屋运动过后延长至2021年12月31日,预计这段期间房产交易将增加,人们掌握“拥屋运动”在12月31日结束之前,敲定购买房屋计划,以享有该运动之下购屋的优惠。


与此同时,市场对房产融资的需求,也上升至冠病疫情前的水平,与2020下半年比较,各个价位的贷款申请皆增加,批准率普遍回升至接近冠病前的水平,2021首半年73.2%、2020年71.5%、2013至2019年平均75.5%,只有价格超过100万令吉的房产除外,批准率反映银行谨慎看待投资高价房产潜在的风险。

Offices, malls in Malaysia may turn emptier with shift to e-commerce, flexi-work arrangements

More and more space in Malaysia’s offices and shopping malls may be left unoccupied, while rental prices for such commercial properties may also go down due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) suggested today.

This would be due to changes such as consumers opting to shop online instead.

In its Financial Stability Review for the first half of 2021, BNM noted that occupancy rates and rental rates for shopping complexes and office space have continued to fall.

“Average rental rates for office and retail space in the Klang Valley have now declined for four consecutive quarters since the third quarter of 2020,” it said in highlighting the continued downward trend since the July to September 2020 period.

Citing data from real estate solution provider Jones Lang Wootton, BNM showed a chart where the unoccupied space or vacancy rate for office space in the Klang Valley had increased from the second quarter of 2020 or April-June 2020 (26.4 per cent), to 27.5 per cent (fourth quarter of 2020 or October-December 2020) to 28.6 per cent (second quarter of 2021 or April-June 2021).

Similarly, the same set of data showed vacancy rates in retail space in the Klang Valley increasing from 25.4 per cent to 26.3 per cent and finally to 26.4 per cent over the same periods.

The unoccupied space or vacancy rate for office space in the Klang Valley had increased from the second quarter of 2020 or April-June 2020 (26.4 per cent), to 27.5 per cent (fourth quarter of 2020 or October-December 2020) to 28.6 per cent (second quarter of 2021 or April-June 2021). — Screengrab from Bank Negara Malaysia’s Financial Stability Review 1st Half 2021

Based on data from property consultancy firms Knight Frank Malaysia and Savills Malaysia, BNM also showed a chart where average rental rates for prime office space, and average rental rates for prime retail space or the most prominent shops in major shopping complexes in the Klang Valley had experienced negative annual growth.

The occupancy rates of commercial property could be further affected by the expiry of the Covid-19 Act 2020’s protections that prohibit the eviction of commercial property tenants who did not pay rent. — Screengrab from Bank Negara Malaysia’s Financial Stability Review 1st Half 2021

Even with lower incoming supply of such commercial space after developers cancelled and deferred some projects, BNM noted that vacancy rates had increased across all key states in Malaysia as several commercial property developments were completed amid “persistent weak demand”.

“Landlords continued to give rent-free periods, rental concessions, and short-term rental assistance packages to attract new tenants and retain existing ones.

“Despite various extensions of rental relief, up to half of mall operators reported significant difficulties collecting rent from their tenants,” BNM said, referring to the Malaysia Shopping Malls Association’s (PPK Malaysia) survey in August.

“This will continue to adversely impact the cashflows of mall owners, particularly for malls in non-prime locations with relatively higher vacancy rates. 

“Looking ahead, vacancy rates could continue to rise and place further pressure on rents as a result of structural changes brought about by the pandemic, including flexible working arrangements and a shift in consumer spending patterns towards e-commerce,” BNM added.

The occupancy rates of commercial property could be further affected by the expiry of the Covid-19 Act 2020’s protections that prohibit the eviction of commercial property tenants who did not pay rent.

With banks having limited direct lending exposures for office and retail commercial properties that make up just 3.1 per cent of total banking system loans, BNM said the lower occupancy rates and rental pressures are not expected to significantly increase risks to financial stability in the country.

However, BNM also noted that the resulting “broader spillovers to the economy could heighten risks for banks”.

What the malls had experienced

Previously, PPK Malaysia had on August 12 released the results of its survey together with research firm Stratos Pinnacle SB on 94 shopping malls nationwide — with 63 per cent in the Klang Valley and suburban areas — from July 23 to July 30. At that time, businesses allowed to open in most of these malls were only those considered “essential”, with only up to 20 per cent of their tenants operating then.

In that survey, most malls were found offering rental rebates to their tenants, with 40 per cent of these malls offering between 30 to 50 per cent in rebates.

The survey also found that the pandemic and impact from restrictions to curb the spread of Covid-19 had resulted in 30 per cent of shopping malls being unable to collect rental from more than 70 per cent of tenants, and almost 50 per cent of the malls have up to a year of overdue payments owed by tenants.

The survey found that 32 per cent of malls said they only had enough cashflow for three months or less, which had resulted in the majority of the malls reducing headcount by 10 to 20 per cent and with almost 80 per cent of them implementing salary cuts.

The survey had then found 60 per cent of the malls to have suffered a decrease in footfall or the number of visitors by 60 per cent to 90 per cent as compared to pre-pandemic levels, with a similar decrease in terms of sales.

The survey in July also saw 44 per cent of the malls believing that their business could take up to one year to recover once restrictions are lifted as they expect consumers to most likely continue staying at home.

In sounding the alarm then, PPK Malaysia had in August highlighted the importance of the retail industry which contributed 34.7 per cent to the country’s economy or GDP in 2018, and the need for it to reopen and revive to contribute to the recovery of the economy. The government has since relaxed restrictions and allowed the opening of many businesses following the increased rate of Covid-19 vaccination in the country.

Monday, September 20, 2021

上半年房市价量齐飙

今年上半年我国共记录13万9754个各类房地产交易,交易总值达620亿1000万令吉,比去年同时期的11万5476间和总值469亿4000万令吉相比,分别有21%和32.1%的增长。

惟今年上半年的房地产交易数量和总值都无法恢复至2017年至2019年同时期的水平。

房地产交易当中,住宅类房地产共有9万2017个交易,占65.8%;农业类房地产为2万6431个(18.9%)及商业类房地产1万433个(7.5%)。

工业类房地产交易为2562个(1.8%)。发展土地及其他为8311个(5.9%)。

国家产业资讯中心发布《2021年上半年房地产市场表现报告》,指今年上半年我国房市有显著复苏及增长,是因为政府在抗疫期间制定的各种惠民政策,如2021年财政预算案、短期经济复苏计划、国家复苏计划、全国疫苗接种计划及重开经济领域,刺激房市。

雪柔霹交易最活跃

雪兰莪、柔佛及霹雳是今年上半年各类房地产交易最活跃的州属。

根据《2021年上半年房地产市场表现报告》,雪兰莪共有2万9610个各类房产交易,柔佛为1万6952个及霹雳1万507个,其后是吉打1万2491个及砂拉越1万258个。

若细分住宅类房地产交易,全国9万2017个住宅类房地产交易,雪兰莪最高,占全国的25.8%。

报告显示,雪兰莪于今年上半年的住宅类房地产交易数量为2万3711个、柔佛为1万681个及霹雳1万672个居第二及第三。

商业房地产交易方面,雪兰莪以2741个交易居冠,柔佛及吉隆坡分别已1410个及1359个尾随其后。

工业房地产交易,雪兰莪有915个交易居冠,柔佛及槟城分别以337个及247个居第二及第三。


新居虽仅售25% 发展商信心足

今年首半年发展商新推介的住宅类发展项目出售率仅24.7%。

根据有关报告显示,今年首半年全国共有1万6600间住宅类房地产推介,但只销售4118间或24.7%而已,其中楼层类住宅产业推出7143间,但销售了1177间(16.5%);而9517间有地住宅类房产中,只销售2941间或30.9%。

发展商对房市充满信心,今年首半年发展商分别展开4万4807间有地及楼层住宅类房地产项目,比往年同时期的3万3112间,增加35.3%。

今年上半年共有2万9919间住宅类房地产竣工,比往年的2万7514间有所提高,而发展商计划兴建3万2766间,比去年同时期2万3629间同样有显著提高。

另一方面,发展商今年共展开2万1278个服务式公寓的发展项目,比去年同时期的1万1224间有所提高。

住宅房地产的价格方面,50万令吉以下依然是热门发展项目,今年上半年发展商共推出1万1921间(71.6%)售价50万令吉以下的项目;4377间(26.3%)售价50万至100万令吉及超过100万令吉为362间(2.2%)。

雪兰莪及吉隆坡推出最多住宅类房地产,分别有4114间和3651间。

隆屋价跌5% 丹涨8.5%

大马房屋价格指数(MHPI)的屋价指数全国按年下跌1.2%,其中吉隆坡跌幅5.2%,但吉兰丹却涨8.5%。

雪兰莪、槟城和砂拉越的屋价指数分别按年下跌1.6%、1.5%和1.8%,反观涨幅的州属为吉兰丹(8.5%)、吉打(3.4%)、马六甲(3.3%)、沙巴(3.2%)、登嘉楼(3.1%)及彭亨(2.6%)。

至于我国另一主要房产市场柔佛的屋价指数则按年增长2.0%

另一方面,排屋价格指数按年增长0.9%,不过楼层住宅、半独立洋房和独立式洋房的价格指数却呈下跌,分别跌幅2.7%、3.1%和6.1%。


柔隆雪滞销产业占64%

柔佛、吉隆坡及雪兰莪是最多滞销产业的州属与地区,占全国63.8%!

报告指出,2021年上半年我国有6万5309间总值492亿8000万令吉的各类房地产滞销,而柔佛共有2万5797间各类产业滞销,居全国之冠!

吉隆坡和雪兰莪分别以8759间及7766间居第二及第三。

报告显示,商业类产业滞销为3万2886间或总值272亿1000万令吉,而住宅类房地产则有3万1112间或总值200亿9000万令吉。

至于工业类产业滞销则有1311间或总值19亿7000万令吉。

滞销产业是指拿到完工及落成准证9个月后仍无法售出的产业,将被归类为滞销产业。

另外,住宅类房地产滞销,楼层类占六成!

住宅类房地产方面,今年上半年滞销的有3万1112间,比往年同时期的2万9565间,增长1.9%。

3万1112间滞销的住宅类房地产,其中60.4%或1万8798间是楼层类房地产,总值103亿2000万令吉。

而有地房产为23.5%或7323间,总值40亿4000万令吉,其他为16%或4991间,总值57亿4000万令吉。

柔佛州的住宅类房地产滞销有6661间居冠,槟城5005间及雪兰莪3770间分别居第二及第三。

50万令吉以下滞销的住宅类房地产为53.3%,共有1万6601间或总值49亿8000万令吉;50万至100万令吉则有1万8027间或总值73亿2000万令吉。

超过100万令吉则有3684间(总值79亿9000万令吉)。