Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Melbourne’s urban renewal projects


AUSTRALIA has long been a favourite destination for Malaysians, be it for education, vacation, business or migration. Melbourne, in particular, has emerged as the preferred city for not just Malaysians but also Asians in general.
Last year, Melbourne was named the world’s most liveable city for the fourth year in a row by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Victoria’s capital city has a population of 4.3 million and for the year ended June 30, 2013, it saw the largest population growth of 95,500 in Australia.
A large part of the population growth was driven by international migration. Melbourne is expected to overtake Sydney as Australia’s largest city by 2050.
“We are the fastest growing city state in Australia. In 2013, we had 110,000 new arrivals to the state, or roughly 2,000 new arrivals each week. They will need housing, they are going to be taking public transport or driving. So, we have to be able to accommodate that need and ensure Melbourne remains a liveable city,” says Tim Dillon, commissioner for the state government of Victoria.
With this in mind, the Victorian government developed Plan Melbourne to guide the city’s housing, commercial and industrial developments through to 2050 and integrate long-term land use, infrastructure and transport planning to meet the population, housing and employment needs of the future.
The government has already allocated up to A$24 billion (RM68.4 billion) for new transport infrastructure projects and announced three urban renewal projects — the 20ha E-Gate, the 3.3ha Federation Square East and, the largest urban renewal project in Australia, the 240ha Fisherman’s Bend. To accomplish the objectives set out in Plan Melbourne will require significant investment from the government. However, government and domestic investments will not be enough to realise the plan.
“We need to put in place infrastructure to cater for the growing population and also house them, so we need developments. Frankly speaking, we don’t have enough capital just in Australia to do all that. We need outside capital and I think savvy Malaysian and international property developers are seeing this and spotting the opportunities,” says Dillon.
He notes that as Southeast Asia and Malaysia grow economically, companies and individuals’ wealth has also increased.
“Companies are starting to outgrow the domestic economy and market. In order to maintain their growth, they are looking for opportunities abroad. Most will likely see Australia and Melbourne as safe investment environments — we have had 22 years of continuous economic growth. I think that is attractive to growing companies looking to expand abroad,” says Dillon.
Malaysian developers already have a presence in Melbourne. These include S P Setia Bhd’s Fulton Lane and Parque Melbourne, UEM Sunrise Bhd’s upcoming Aurora Melbourne Central and Magna Prima Bhd’s The Istana.
“We have seen a huge amount of interest from Malaysian developers over the past two years. I have been stunned by the amount of investment going into Melbourne from developers from Malaysia, Singapore and China,” Dillon remarks.
A new benchmark
The largest of the three urban renewal projects, Fisherman’s Bend is located to the south-west of Melbourne’s central business district (CBD). Fisherman’s Bend is expected to be home to at least 80,000 residents and create at least 40,000 jobs. It aspires to set a new benchmark for an inner-city, family-friendly living environment that supports a diverse and connected community.
“The vision is to have a very compact offering in Fisherman’s Bend comprising residential, offices and retail. It’s going to be a place where people can work, live and enjoy life,” says Dillon.
According to him, the Victorian government recently announced a rail link between the city and the airport, and the city link will be stationed in Fisherman’s Bend.
“The rail links are being connected. We will have schools and parkland as well. The idea is that people should be able to work close to where they live, so they wouldn’t be spending so much time commuting, which is a major inhibitor on productivity. Long commuting time makes it hard to have work-life balance. So, being able to get all your services and needs close to where you work makes life more pleasant,” says Dillon.
The area is currently an industrial precinct with some houses. The plan is to move the industrial precinct further out of the city centre and redevelop Fisherman’s Bend into an urban centre given its close proximity to the CBD (about a distance of 4km).
“Fisherman’s Bend is prime land and it makes sense for us to redevelop the area. A decade or two ago, it was harder to move the industrial precinct further out of the city because we didn’t have the connectivity then. We have invested in a lot of infrastructure over the years, so now the industrial precinct can be supported.
“We should be using land close to the city for homes and value-added businesses such as services, financial and fund management, which is the largest business in Australia. We just surpassed A$2 trillion funds under management, the fourth largest in the world,” says Dillon.
Many fund managers are based in Melbourne and Dillon says it is supported by a stream of high-calibre financial and accounting business graduates from Melbourne’s universities.
The draft vision for Fisherman’s Bend Urban Renewal Area dated November 2013 said the project is expected to deliver almost A$2 billion of private investment and create 13,500 construction jobs.
The Strategic Framework Plan (SFP) for the area by the Metropolitan Planning Authority adopts four key elements: a street network, sustainable transport, open spaces and a series of places — centres of vibrant mixed-use activity.
A new underground station in Montague, which is part of the Melbourne Rail Link project, will be a major catalyst for commercial and residential developments in the area. New tram and bus routes are also being planned and will be integrated with Montague Station and the central city.
The projected 40,000 jobs will need new space for office, retail, tourism, education, health and cultural activities. A variety of housing such as high-rise, high-density residences, in the in accessible locations, three to four-level apartments and townhouses will be needed to accommodate the anticipated 80,000 residents.
The main retail spine will be in Plummer Street Civic Boulevard while the Montague Station district will be the principal commercial and retail centre. Secondary centres are in Buckhurst Street (Montague) and Lorimer Urban Village.
Fisherman’s Bend will initially be built around three places — The Civic Boulevard, Lorimer Urban Village and Montague Urban Village.
The Civic Boulevard precinct, which sits in the Sandridge and Wirraway areas, will support the primary transport route for Fisherman’s Bend. It is slated for mixed-use developments with ground floor retail and high-density residences above as well as higher order community facilities.
The SFP also asked for the building plates to be flexible — adaptable for office, retail and/or entertainment uses to be clustered around future transport hubs — to allow the boulevard to evolve into a fully activated high street that can serve as an extension of Collins Street.
Lorimer is envisioned as a modern commercial and residential hub, which will be enhanced by Lorimer Parkway, a central linear green link. Lorimer’s village centre will be situated in the heart of the parkway and complemented by a range of new urban housing models. As Lorimer is directly adjacent to the CBD, Docklands and Southbank, it is expected to see development early in the renewal project.
Lastly, Montague will be a high-density commercial and employment hub located around the new Montague Station and will have substantial housing. The southern section will have a more traditional urban structure, with Buckhurst Street set to become the neighbourhood high street and heart of Montague. The most significant housing growth is expected to be in Buckhurst Street and the north side of Thistlethwaite Street as the lot sizes there are more appropriate for high-rise developments.
“The government has in place a plan and guideline for Fisherman’s Bend but it doesn’t own the land. So, it’s up to the developers to come in and determine the opportunities, purchase the land and build the development. The government has a vision, we don’t want 50 schools or 50 hotels. We have to make sure there is a balance in the offerings,” says Dillon.
It will be up to the developer to approach the owner of the parcels they are interested in and negotiate a deal. While Dillon acknowledges that it can be a challenge to find the right parcels as there is a mix of large and small parcels, he says the landowners have been generally receptive.
“What we are doing is unlocking the value of the land for the landowners. We can build more upmarket developments, which will extract more value from the land. I think overall they are happy. Obviously, some will need to think about their businesses and strategies moving forward and determine where they need to be. So far, the government’s approach has been welcomed.”
The renewal project is already generating interest. Dillon recalls meeting a Chinese developer during a trip to China recently who told him that his company had just acquired a large parcel in Fisherman’s Bend for development.
Dillon advises interested parties to do market research on the land prices, get advice from accountants and lawyers, and have discussions with the government early.
“It’s up to the developer to decide what to build but it is subject to the guidelines. On our end, we have agencies such as Invest Assist to help facilitate and manage investment projects. Our office in Kuala Lumpur can help developers get the required information and connect with the relevant agencies. We also have a strong team of architects and local consultants who can help with feasibility studies, if needed,” says Dillon.
Federation Square East and E-Gate
The other two urban renewal projects are smaller in scale and less complicated than Fisherman’s Bend as they are both government-owned land.
E-Gate sits on the edge of the CBD, about 4km from the city centre. It is adjacent to the communities of Docklands and West Melbourne, bounded by Footscray Road, Dudley Street, the North Melbourne Rail Corridor and Moonee Ponds Creek.
Currently an underutilised rail yards site, E-Gate will be a mixed-use, inner-city precinct comprising retail, residential, commercial and community uses. It will capitalise on its close proximity to the North Melbourne Railway Station, CityLink, tram and bus lines, and the Capital City Trail. There will be a new bridge connecting the site with North Melbourne Station, and West Melbourne will provide primary access to the Metropolitan rail network.
E-Gate is expected to bring in A$3 billion to A$4 billion worth of investment to the state and generate more than 5,000 jobs in construction over a period of 20 to 25 years. Expression of interest to develop the site was released on Oct 27, 2014, and will end on Feb 19, 2015.
“The other project — Federation Square East — is very centrally located, close to Flinders Station. It’s a beautiful location and very close to our sports precinct. There is major opportunity there for hotels, retail and tourism offerings,” says Dillon.
The mixed-use project will revitalise the north bank of Yarra River and better connect the CBD with the city’s cultural, sports and entertainment precincts. It is bounded by Federation Square/Russell Street to the west, Flinders Street to the north, Batman Avenue to the east and Birrarung Marr to the south.
Out of the 3.3ha, about 2.3ha is above rail lines and 1ha is mainly used for parking. Expression of interest was opened on Sept 15, 2014, and closed on Dec 11.
“One of the Victorian government’s priorities is to make Melbourne Asia’s most connected and capable city. One of the things that define our city is our multicultural community. There is more than 150 different languages spoken daily in Melbourne. The future is strongly leaning towards Asia, that’s where the growth is happening and where the future multinational companies will come from,” says Dillon.
“The key role of our office in Kuala Lumpur is to engage companies looking to expand abroad. We want them to consider Melbourne as an option for future growth and investments. And we will have a full range of correct and detailed information about Melbourne to help them make that decision,” he concludes.

Monday, February 2, 2015

Affordable housing should be priority of state agencies, GLCs

State economic agencies and government-linked companies should cater to affordable housing for the masses and not embark on “profit-making” ventures.
National House Buyers Association (HBA) honorary secretary-general Chang Kim Loong (pic) said these agencies were set up by the federal and state governments to ensure the well-being of the people, including providing housing for the majority of population.
“They are guardians of the land alienated to them and they must understand their objective. It is not to embark on making money,” he told The Star Online when asked to comment on the recent protest against the construction of the Datum Jelatek luxury condominium in Keramat, Kuala Lumpur.
The condominiums are being built on the former site of four blocks of Perbadanan Kemajuan Negri Selangor (PKNS) flats that were demolished in late 2010.
Chang said economic agencies should not be competing with private developers, whose main aim was to seek profit.
“Private developers are there for the profit and are not charitable organisations. House prices have gone up drastically in the past three to four years. The majority of people aren’t able to afford them,” he said.
The protesters, led by Datum Jelatek action committee chairman Salleh Samad, claimed that the project would not benefit Malays, as the RM700,000 per unit price was beyond their reach.
PKNS, however, said that a total of 1,097 potential bumiputra buyers registered their interest in the 674 Datum Jelatek condominium units.
Housing affordability, which is based on the ratio of average terraced house price to average household income, has worsened over the past five years, according to Rahim & Co, Chartered Surveyors Sdn Bhd.
In its survey of the Malaysian property market 2014/2015, the ratio increased from 3.4 in 2009 to 3.6 in 2012 and 2014.
HBA had previously called for government intervention to prevent a “homeless generation” of young adult Malaysians from emerging.

Tribunal to ensure implementation of Strata Management Act

A tribunal to manage the Strata Management Act 2013 (Act 757) needs to be formed to ensure the Act is run smoothly.
Urban Wellbeing, Housing and Local Government Minister Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan said this tribunal needs to be formed especially in Selangor, where 50% of the people lived in high-rise units.
"I have informed Mentri Besar Mohamed Azmin Ali that his state assembly needs to pass a resolution for the appointment of chairman, deputy chairman and tribunal officials who will be hand-picked by my ministry as stated in the Act," Abdul Rahman said after meeting Azmin here today.
The ministry has also agreed with Selangor's requests on appointing those who are living in the state to represent the tribunal.
"As long as the candidate is eligible and fulfils the criteria, then there should be no problem," Abdul Rahman said.
The Strata Management Act 2013 will come into force on Jan 1.
Meanwhile, Mohamed Azmin said Putrajaya and the state government need to cooperate to ensure the smooth sailing of the act.
"We welcome government initiatives to standardise the act. As a modern state, Selangor has a lot of high-rise buildings and we need the assistance of the federal government to ensure this act is implemented smoothly," Azmin said.
He added that this act will safeguard the interests of buyers, tenants and owners of the buildings.
The Strata Management Act will replace the Building and Joint Property (Management and Maintenance) 2007 (Act 663) and Strata Ownership Act 1985 (Act 318).

Enforcement of Strata Management Act to be announced soon

The enforcement of the Strata Management Act 2013 (Act 757), which replaces the Building and Common Property (Maintenance and Management) Act 2007, is to be announced soon.
This was decided at the 69th meeting of the National Council for Local Government chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin here today.
Urban Well-being, Housing and Local Government Minister Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan and Deputy Minister Datuk Halimah Sadique also attended the meeting.
According to a ministry statement, the enforcement of Act 757 would have a positive impact and significance for millions of residents living in strata-title buildings who make up 30% of the country's population.
"To ensure their comfort and well-being, the management of the building must attain the high standard set, including through Act 757," said the statement, which was issued after the meeting.
With the enforcement of Act 757, a Strata Management Tribunal would be set up to help resolve problems or disputes among residents and interested parties simply, quickly and cheaply.
The statement said setting up the tribunal needed the approval of the state legislative assembly for the appointment of the chairman, deputy chairman, members and staff.
The meeting also agreed that the enforcement of the Strata Management (Maintenance and Management) Regulations would be done at the same time as the enforcement of Act 757.
The meeting today also unanimously agreed on applying the Malaysian Private Entities Reporting Standards (MPERS) as a foundation for the financial preparations of the Strata Building Management authorities in peninsular Malaysia and the Federal Territory of Labuan.
The meeting also agreed on the Island and Marine Park Physical Development Planning Guidelines, which are a review of the Island Physical Development Planning Guidelines published by the Town and Country Planning Department in 1996.
The guidelines, among others, assist the state governments, local authorities and developers manage, control and develop island areas in the aspects of placement and density as well as permitted and prohibited activities. 

Sunday, February 1, 2015

‘Challenging year’ for housing industry

REHDA’S Datuk Ng Seing Liong does not think the property sector is coming to a halt any time soon.
“The population doesn’t permit a total slowdown. There is still a huge demand for affordable housing. Statistically, we still need another one million to 1.5 million houses so we have not reached that stage on affordable housing yet,” he says.
But he admits that 2015 is going to be a “challenging year” for the housing industry.
“The economic signs are all there because of the depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit, and low oil prices have affected the economy. That is why we are focused on affordable housing. This is where the people’s needs are.”
The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in April too, he believes, will put a dent in the housing industry.
Residential property is exempt from GST but Rehda is asking for affordable housing (RM500,000 and below) to be zero-rated instead so that developers would be able to claim the input tax from suppliers for that segment instead of being asked to absorb it.
The GST will also see basic construction material like cement, bricks and sand being taxed the standard 6% GST rate. Currently, these are not taxed under the existing Sales and Services Tax (SST)
Ng is quick to point out that while some other materials in the industry have a 5% and 10% SST on them, these in fact are “not major building and construction components”.
Steel, bricks, and sand make up 44% of the construction cost and with these being charged GST, the cost is inevitably going to increase, he says.
“We anticipate that the GST will result in a 2.6% increase in house prices,” says Ng, who is chairman of the GST Task Force for Rehda (Real Estate and Housing Developers Association Malaysia).
“We are asking the government to zero rate on major components like cement, sand and bricks. The poor and rich use the same thing.”
On the Customs Department director of GST Datuk Subromaniam Tholasy pointing out that steel prices and raw material prices are coming down in tandem with oil prices, which should result in lower costs for developers, Ng says: “I won’t argue with that. But what will happen if the price of oil hits US$80 or US$100 (a barrel)?”
Recently, the price of Brent crude oil fell drastically below US$50, which is a six-year low. Last June, it was US$110 a barrel. And the price of steel too has been falling.
Ng predicts that the government would be able to make RM10bil from the GST for this year.
“I predict it will be as high as RM20bil next year because people will get more used to it. Singapore, for example, has only a population of six million and already they are collecting S$11.1bil (RM29.8bil). So it’s actually going to be big here.”
He says the GST has often been referred to as a “fairer” and “more equitable” tax.
“But some of the measures are highly prejudicial and unfair.”
If the GST is implemented in its “current form”, he says, it will cause financial hardship, add to the cost of development and increase house prices.
The industry sent a memorandum to the government a few months ago to express these concerns and Ng is still hoping that there will be changes before April.
He points out that there is actually a huge income potential the government can derive from tourists.
“There are 30 million tourists coming to the country each year. If each tourist pays RM1 in GST, that is already RM30mil. And if they pay RM100 in GST per person, how much is that from 30 million tourists? The 6% GST is not cast in stone. Why not charge 10% to 12% for the tourism sector like for the hotels?”

Wishy-washy on housing GST

Many are asking the question but so few know the answer,” quips Malaysian Institute of Estate Agents (MIEA) president Siva Shanker (pic) when asked about the impact of the GST on the housing sector.
He says he speaks for his entire fraternity of estate agents when he says they are “not 100% clear” how the GST is going to work.
“Over the last six months, I’ve attended four or five talks on the GST. Some were by accountants and one was from the (Finance) ministry but at the end of these one-and-a-half hour sessions, I was no closer to understanding what it all meant than when I first started.
“I haven’t yet met a person who can tell me with authority how it works. Everybody is wishy-washy. When I ask the accountants, they explain it but my opinion is that they are acting on theory.
“So how does it all affect the property market? We don’t know!”
Siva says that when other countries imposed the GST, there was a spike in property transactions and value in the quarter preceding the GST.
“Then the market found its own level again.”
Because he had no other data to go by, Siva says, he had previously thought this too would be the case for Malaysia – that from January to March there would be a spike in transactions in property and value as people rush to buy before the GST, much like how they would queue overnight to buy petrol before the price of petrol goes up.
“But I want to revise my own projection. I see there is so much doom and gloom for 2015 that I am convinced there won’t be a spike because the perception of gloom and doom has overridden the greed to acquire before the GST.
“How the market behaved in 2014 is pretty much the same as how it is going to behave in 2015, which means it is going to be a flat-ish market with no upward growth and no downward slide.”
Siva reveals that in 2011 and 2012, the market dropped by 4% and 5% while in 2012 to 2013, it went down by a whopping 10.9%. In 2014 it was a flat market but the figures of the second half of 2014 are not in yet.
In 2011 and 2012, he says, although the number of transactions went down, prices went up. And it was the same for 2012 and 2013.
“Transactions slowed three years in a row but prices were still going up.
“My opinion is that in 2015, the upward climb of prices has been arrested and the downward slide of transactions has slowed down. I feel the market will reach its equili­brium soon.”
For estate agents, the GST is no big deal because they have already been paying a 6% government service tax previously on their fee, he says.
“Now it is replaced with the Goods and Services Tax (GST) which is also at 6%. So for the average estate agent, life goes on without a little bump.”
For buyers, residential property is exempt from GST but commercial property is charged the standard 6%.
“It (the 6% for commercial property) doesn’t look like it’s going to go away. So people just have to bite the bullet and learn to pay for it.”
But Siva has questions about the sale of commercial property.
“If I sell you a shoplot for RM1mil, you have to pay 6% GST, which comes up to RM60,000. I am not sure who is the collection centre. I think it will be the lawyer who will collect that RM60,000 from you and remit it to the Customs Department.”
As for the estate agent, he would bill the owner of the property he just sold for a 2% commission on the sale price, which in the case of the RM1mil shoplot would come up to RM20,000, as well as 6% of that commission, which works out to RM1,200 for the GST.
“The agent collects the RM1,200 on behalf of the owner and sends it to the Customs Department.”
Siva also wonders what will happen to a residential property owned by a company if that company is sold.
“A lot of people own property but park it under a company for tax purposes or estate planning and other purposes.
“There is no GST on residential property but if I have a house worth RM6mil but say my company Siva Shanker Sdn Bhd owns it and I sell off my company for RM6mil.
“We think it’s no big deal. But the question is, does the sale of the company attract a 6% GST even though it is a residential house? I don’t know the answer to this question.”
Siva feels that with the bad things that have happened to Malaysia last year, like the MH370 and MH17 tragedies, and also the Indonesia AirAsia Flight QZ8501 crash, and the current economic uncertainties with petrol prices dropping and the ringgit depreciating, the implementation of the GST should be held back.
“We are taking too many hits at the same time. It would be a clever political move to consider suspending the GST for a while and implementing it next year or the year after.”
For now, he suggests that the Government cuts down its expenditure and rein in the wastages and excesses which are highlighted every year in the Auditor-General’s report.

Braced for a property glut

Everyone talks about rising residential property prices and high rentals because of rising demand and speculative activities. Now they are talking about the impact of GST too.
IS a glut in residential property or a slowdown imminent? IFCA MSC Bhd chief financial officer Daniel Chow seems to think so.
Chow was an invited speaker at a significant property event last week where one of the key speakers showed that actual sales last year for all the major players in the industry, except for one, was much lower than their forecast.
“Everybody recorded negative. There was only one exception. The fundamental rule on economics is demand and supply. When there is oversupply, this is what happens.
“How much is the population growth in Malaysia? Less than 3%. And how much is your purchasing power growth? On average 6% to 7% year by year.
“But the increase in the supply of property is double digit every year. How can you expect the market to absorb all this? There is a limit,” he says in an interview.
For him, the introduction of the GST in April is not going to cause a spike in prices from April to December.
On the contrary, what he sees on the horizon is a glut by year end and the whole of next year.
He says this is when the properties under the (now banned) Developers-Interest-Bearing Scheme are completed and most buyers who paid only the minimum 5% down payment would have to start paying their monthly instalment and service their housing loan when the property is handed over to them.
“Most are just property flippers and their whole intention is to flip it for capital gain. But what if nobody wants to buy? Do they have the holding power? Some were greedy and put in RM10K into three different units instead of RM30K into one.”
So if the person cannot pay the monthly instalment or sell the unit then the bank will do a foreclosure.
“I expect to see cheap sales and bank lelong at the end of the year and early next year for certain types of properties in selected areas,” he says.
Chow believes the oversupply will create a downward pressure on the selling price.
As for the impact of the GST on the housing industry, he believes it will be “very minimal”.
Chow points out that non-GST factors are the reason the cost of building residential houses is so much higher now compared to five or 10 years ago.
He says developers are now forced to make “contributions” to utility companies like Tenaga Nasional, Indah Water Konsortium, and Syabas.
“It is not a voluntary contribution. And this ‘contribution’ has been increasing substantially over the last five years. This increase over the last five years has translated into higher overall infrastructural cost and higher cost per house.
“Not forgetting the fact that land cost too has gone up because land owners are greedy. These things have nothing to do with the GST and that increase is much higher than the GST impact.”
When the GST is implemented in April, residential property including SoHo will be exempt supply, meaning buyers will not need to pay the GST on it. But commercial property including SoFo, SoVo and SoS would be subject to the 6% GST.
Construction material such as cement, sand and bricks for both residential and commercial properties will also be subject to the 6% GST.
So will heavy machinery like cranes.
Chow says property developers normally do not buy the heavy machinery but rent them from the contractor. But this too has to be factored into the construction cost.
He believes the GST will impact the smaller developers less than the bigger players because the smaller ones do the construction themselves unlike the bigger players who engage an external construction arm and outsource their work.
He estimates that the GST would increase cost of houses by 2.1% to 2.2%, which is minimal, but he doubts that “developers have the ability to push prices up by even a single per cent” because of the pressure from the oversupply.
“I have served as an accountant and financial controller in three different property development companies, and I started my career in a tax consultancy firm and I have been in the property and construction sector for 22 years.
“And I can tell you that for a financial controller in a property development company, the biggest fear is not being able to draw down on its bank loan. The draw down depends on the percentage of sale.
“For example, if I am launching 300 condominiums, the first tranche of loan can be drawn, say, when 20% of the units are sold, the next tranche when 50% are sold and maybe if I have 60% to 70% sold I can then draw down 100% of the loan.
“If I try to push the selling price higher and my sales drop to a worrying level, I may be stuck on my draw down because that is based on percentage of sales. And developers don’t want that.”

Mixed views on house prices

There are mixed views on whether the price of houses will go up, come down or remain the same when the Goods and Services Tax (GST) kicks in on April 1.

Customs Department director of GST Datuk Subromaniam Tholasy “presumes house prices may even fall” while Real Estate and Housing Developers Association (Rehda) chairman Datuk Ng Seing Liong believes it will rise.

And IFCA MSC Bhd’s chief financial officer Daniel Chow thinks the GST will be a “non-event” in terms of selling price increase.

Subromaniam said the price of steel was “significantly down” and the price of other raw material were coming down slowly in tandem with falling oil prices.

“If we consider other market conditions, I presume house prices may even fall after taking into account the GST.

“Property developers should pass on cost savings to house buyers,” he said in an interview.

He said land was the “biggest cost component” and there was no GST imposed on residential land.

Residential houses and land are exempt from the GST but construction material such as steel, cement, sand, tiles, etc, are not and would be subject to the 6% GST.

Currently, these construction materials fall under a “First Schedule Goods” and do not incur any Sales and Services Tax (SST).

The GST replaces the SST in April.

Subromaniam agreed that under the GST, the base would be broader with more input such as construction materials being taxed.

Whether this would lead to higher costs, he said, the fact was that many items were already being taxed under the SST, which was a less efficient regime and could actually result in bigger tax costs.

“We have facts to show that the hidden SST is much more than the actual rate,” he added.

Subromaniam said their estimate was that with the GST, the actual increase – if all factors remain the same – would be between 0.5% and 2% maximum.

“It is so minimal if any. Developers should absorb it because their (profit) margin is typically between 20% and 30%,” he said.

Ng, however, said developers would not absorb the extra cost and would pass this on to buyers.

He said based on Rehda’s calculations, the GST would result in a 2.6% increase in house prices.

Calling for major components such as cement, concrete, bricks and sand to be zero rated, he estimated that they made up 44% of the cost of construction.

“If these can be zero-rated, the impact will not be as great,” he said.

He also urged the Government to zero-rate residential houses instead of exempt rate.

(The customer does not pay a GST for zero-rate or GST-exempt products. But the difference is that with zero-rated, the developer gets to claim back the input tax paid to the supplier but with the exempt rate he cannot which results in a higher cost for him.)

IFCA-MSC’s Chow did not foresee any increase in the selling price from April to December because he believed there would be an oversupply of residential properties by the end of the year.

He said many had bought pro­perties two to three years ago paying only the minimum 5% as downpayment under the Deve­­loper-Interest-Bearing-Scheme (which was no longer in effect) with the intention of selling on completion.

“Most are opportunists and property flippers who bought a few units and have no holding power to pay the instalment once the property is completed.

“Those properties will be completed end of 2015 and 2016 and now the buyers are going to have to come up with the money to pay.”

(IFCA-MSC Bhd is one of the dominant software solution providers for the property market.)

Chow estimated the GST tax implication to be 2.1% to 2.2% of the cost of housing which he described as “very minimal”.

“We are talking about a huge pressure due to the oversupply of residential property which will cause property developers to have a big question mark over whether they have the ability to push prices up by even a single per cent.”